Usual World Cup quota of massive upsets already done and dusted
Six talking points from the Rugby World Cup, and a weekend to build a dream on
After the fireworks?
The massive upset of the World Cup has already happened.
The All Blacks tipping over Ireland means that the usual Cup quota of one breathtaking form reversal (think France beating New Zealand in 2007, or South Africa winning the final against England in 2019) may have been filled.
Add in the nail-biting Springboks victory against France (think France scraping through against Australia in 1987, or South Africa edging the All Blacks in the 1995 final) and the prospect of two scorching semifinals are as likely as a literate, sane tweet from Donald Trump.
But the final? That’s shaping as a classic.
The blueprint
For the Pumas to shock the rugby world in Paris today, they’ll need to be on top of their game, and the All Blacks will have to be complacent.
If there’s a need to use the trauma of the 2007 quarter-final loss to France in Cardiff as a motivational prod, then manager Darren Shand and mental skills expert Gilbert Enoka are in the All Blacks management group.
The lessons from 2007, and the 2019 loss to England in Yokohama, are simple.
Pick your best team. We didn’t do that in 2007. Then hit the field raging. In 2019 the All Blacks were strangely passive in the first half, and by halftime, down 10-0, it was too late to catch a fiery England.
The sort of passion Sam Cane and Ardie Savea summoned against Ireland would be way too much for Argentina.
Welcome back
I’m a huge admirer of Leicester Fainga’anuku, but Mark Telea has been a revelation at this Cup. His ability to beat tacklers with what seems almost ridiculous ease has been extraordinary. Putting his curfew misdemeanour in the rearview mirror wouldn’t have been a difficult decision.
Did we mention discipline?
Puma wing Emiliano Boffelli is a sensationally good goalkicker. He kicked six penalty goals and a conversion when the Pumas beat the All Blacks in Christchurch last year.
Australian referee Angus Gardner will hopefully not be as trigger-happy as some officials have been in France, but offend anywhere in your own half against the Pumas, and you’ll almost certainly be three points down.
No crying in the rain
Heavy rain forecast for the Paris weekend shouldn’t be an issue for head decision-maker Richie Mo’unga.
As much as I loved living in Christchurch, winter brings not only cold but a good share of rain.
At first-five for the Crusaders, Mo’unga was no stranger to the concept of kicking for field position when the ball was wet and slippery.
Tickets going cheap
England fans have voted with their wallets, and the second semifinal, pitting England against South Africa is struggling to sell out.
A reflection of the gloomy attitude is seeing former England player Stuart Barnes writing “it’s almost impossible to hold out hope for England”.
I think he’s right. Barring Kiwi referee Ben O’Keeffe having a mindaltering drug being sneaked into his water bottle, Owen Farrell will not have enough kicks for goal to give England a chance of victory.