Election speculation

Anyone who has ever bought or sold a house or a business knows the price is much lower if the vendor must sell and there is only one interested buyer. When there are 2+ buyers, you can play them off against each other and the seller can achieve a market sale price. Genuine competition is king (maker).

Luxon and Seymour might now be wishing there was a competitive tension to maximise the negotiation position of National + Act. Winston Peters is the sole buyer and Luxon needs a sale. He, and the voters of Ilam, had the chance to offer the right block another prospective buyer.

With no changes to actual party vote, but only a change to the electorate seat of Ilam going to Raf Manji, National and Act would have had two ways to form a government.

A win for Raf would have “coattailed” in three TOP MPs. The way the seats are distributed happened to mean that, on the exact 2023 party vote numbers, these three would-be TOP seats were in reality allocated: 1 Greens, 1 Labour, 1 National.

Even with no changes to party vote, this would mean Nat+Act have 59 seats between them (assuming National wins the Port Waikato byelection). They could then either partner with NZF or TOP to achieve a majority in the 123 seat Parliament.

In reality a more accommodating tone in terms of the Ilam Electorate from Mr Luxon might have also increased the TOP party vote and taken extra seats off Labour or Green — increasing the potential majority of the Nat+Act+TOP . . .

On the results, just shy of 4000 Hamish Campbell Ilam electorate votes switching to Raf Manji would have achieved this outcome. Perhaps next time, Ilam? For now, let’s see how Peters uses his outsized leverage.

The tail can only wag the dog if it’s the only tail in town.

David Webb, Tauranga