Peril on the RED SEA
Ignored for years — now the Houthis are threatening to throw global trade into chaos
It was a bizarre spectacle, even by the standards of the Middle East’s more eccentric militia groups.
Stamping on American and Israeli flags, Arab tourists cheered as they were led around a recently hijacked cargo ship, the Galaxy Leader, by triumphant Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.
The Iranian- backed Houthis, who for a decade have waged a bitter civil war against a Saudi- led coalition in Yemen, had managed to land on the ship commando- style and take control with ease.
At the time, some may have dismissed the video as an amusing curio which framed the Houthis as mere pirates.
In fact, it was an early sign that the Houthis were about to explode onto the global stage as a major power player in the war between Israel and Hamas — and one that was underestimated by the West.
A string of recent Houthi missile and drone attacks on vessels crossing the Red Sea, a key shipping route that carries 40 per cent of Europe’s trade with Asia and the Middle East, has prompted oil giant BP to halt gas and oil shipments, with major consequences for global trade.
The Houthis’ leadership claims the attacks are aimed at pressuring Israel to halt its bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip, where nearly 20,000 Palestinians have been killed so far.
Houthi attacks on commercial ships have proven so disruptive that the United States has launched a maritime mission to maintain order in the Red Sea, amid fears that the instability could trigger severe price rises on oil and other goods.
But if the Houthis are hoping to force President Joe Biden into backing a long- term Gaza ceasefire, the gamble could backfire — according to recent reports, he is exploring options for a retaliatory strike on missile sites in Yemen.
This in turn risks causing an even greater escalation in the Middle East, such as a direct confrontation with Iran, something Biden is anxious to avoid.
How the West dismissed the threat
Gulf experts say the West may well have underestimated the power of the Houthi movement, which was long perceived as a troublesome but isolated militant group that largely depended on weapons and funding from Iran, Israel’s arch foe in the region.
“The Houthis are pretty battlehardened, having been fighting a decade plus civil and regional war with military backing from Iran,” said Julien Barnes- Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“This has involved years of firing missiles towards Saudi Arabia, an area where they’ve increasingly honed their skills with outside support, and they clearly see this as an opportunity to further cement their regional standing.
“While dismissed as a ragtag army by some, the fact that they resisted a US- backed, Saudi- led military operation and now have Riyadh suing for peace, suggests a somewhat different story,” Barnes- Dacey added.
Dr Elisabeth Kendall, an expert on the Houthi movement from Cambridge University, said she suspected that standing up for Palestinians was just part of what motivated the group.
“Inside Yemen, they frame themselves as defenders of Palestine and that definitely gives them credibility not only within their base but more broadly in Yemen,” she told France 24.
“And then regionally it gives them leverage in the ongoing peace talks with Saudi Arabia to solve the Yemen war.”
“Internationally it ensures they grab headlines and get more eyes on their cause and the Palestinian cause — because money is involved, global trade is at risk and that means it’s all eyes on them,” she added.
Iran’s proxy war
The Houthi movement was founded in Yemen as a Shia Islamist group during the early 1990s.
In 2014, it launched an insurgency against the Yemeni government that seized the capital of Sana’a and much of northern Yemen.
A catastrophic civil war ensued, creating the world’s worst humanitarian conflict and killing an estimated 150,000 people, on top of a further 200,000 deaths linked to poor health facilities and famine.
As of December 2023, there has been some tentative progress on a ceasefire between the Houthis and neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which backs the former Yemeni government. Saudi officials are said to be eager not to allow any further escalations in the Middle East, particularly in relation to Gaza or the Red Sea, that might derail that process entirely.
To Western observers, it may seem odd that a militia group locked in an ongoing civil war would divert resources to a separate conflict raging on the other side of the Middle East.
But the Houthis have close military links and ideological affinity with Iran, which for years has used the Houthis as a proxy group to increase its own influence in the Red Sea and create opportunities to harass Western trade routes.
Tensions between the West and Tehran remain extremely high due to crippling sanctions imposed on Iran over its ongoing nuclear programme, which Israel regards as an existential threat.
Iranian proxy groups across the region have also been eager to show an increasingly united front against Israel, with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and even some Shia groups in Iraq threatening to join the war against Israel.
“It’s becoming quite serious, we haven’t seen a spate of missile and drone attacks, and boardings, like this in the Middle East for 40 years,” said Peter Aylott, policy director at the Chamber of Shipping.
“The good news is the US defence secretary announcing the set- up of a task force, though whether it can cope with attacks in that region really depends on how many assets they deploy.
“Finally, and this is speculation, there may be some attacks into Yemen to destroy [ Houthi] bases there, and if that happens it will change things quite quickly.”
Pirates and a murky relationship
There are rising concerns too about co- operation between Somali pirates and the Houthis.
On November 26, the Houthis fired missiles near a US destroyer which had captured some Somali pirates as they attempted to seize a cargo tanker.
The apparent co- operation surprised analysts.
Further signs emerged a week ago when a Malta- flagged carrier hijacked by Somali pirates began to head towards Yemen.
The pirates are more likely to be motivated by cash than any ideological cause.
Israel blames Iran over what it increasingly fears is a new front opening against it and Western allies in the Red Sea, with Tehran thought to be directing proxies to cause maximum chaos, possibly with the Revolutionary Guard involved in planning.
But the Houthis’ naval and missile attacks may also be a sign they want to stand up and present themselves as a key regional player, and not just a tool of the Iranian regime, Barnes- Dacey suggested.
“I think most probably the Iranians have a slightly kind of complicated relationship with them and difficulty managing them,” he said.
“They’re certainly partners and allies, and Iran can kind of push them in a direction, but they don’t have the ability to unilaterally set the agenda.
“I think there’s a very good chance here that the Houthis are looking to show that they are independent rather than just as a property of Iran.”
What can the US do?
As for the US maritime operation, it is unclear how effective it would be in deterring further attacks and whether it will end up provoking more violence from Iran and its allies.
“It’s the big question — for the US there was a necessity to respond and reinstate US deterrence in the region.
“It looks like some of the ships will be involved in escorting while others will just observe and collect intelligence. For now we don’t have a lot of details,” said Camille Lons, a Gulf affairs expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“But the objective for now for all players is sending a sign that they are watching very closely, and to reassure shipping companies that there won’t be too much disruption.
“It’s more about signalling than really escalating against the Houthis.”
They clearly see this as an opportunity to further cement their regional standing
Julien Barnes- Dacey