Marsh warns punters Velocious won’t start if Pukekohe track heavy
Racing’s first big clash of the New Year is under threat unless the Auckland weather improves the next few days.
The massive meeting at Pukekohe will go ahead rain or shine, but just like before the Boxing Day meeting, heavy and persistent rain is forecast for the area.
That meeting was eventually run under sunny skies and the track was upgraded twice during the day from a soft7 to a near perfect soft5, and that could happen on Monday, too.
Even if the track did get into the heavy range, most of the big-name horses in races such as the Railway and Queen Elizabeth II Cup would still probably start, especially as the Railway is Group 1 and the horses involved are experienced, hardened performers, not to mention the fact the stake is $450,000.
But one race that could change enormously is the first black type race in the world for 2024, the $225,000 Eclipse Stakes, the Group 2 being run as race 3 on Monday.
It sees the clash of TAB Karaka Millions favourite Velocious and stunning debut winner Move To Strike, one of the more exciting one-start juveniles in New Zealand in recent years.
But trainer Stephen Marsh warns punters his unbeaten filly Velocious wouldn’t start in the unlikely event of Pukekohe being rated heavy early on Monday morning.
“It is a good drying track, so I don’t think it will come to that, but if it is heavy, I’d be reluctant to go,” says Marsh. “She’s three weeks out from her big aim, the Karaka Millions, and she would have the option of racing at Ellerslie on January 14 instead, which would give her another look around there.
“We don’t have to make a decision until scratchings time [7.30am] on Monday, and if it’s soft, she’ll start, but heavy, probably not.”
Trainer Mark Walker says Move to Strike will start regardless of track conditions and he has already won trials on both heavy and soft.
“I don’t think it will bother him, and I think he’s improved since his debut,” says Walker. “Looking at the meeting, even if it did come up heavy, all of our big names would still start.”
Marsh suggests punters could do worse than check out his maiden
Provence (R3, No 8) at today’s northern meeting at Taupō.
“She won her trial really well last time out and is a good chance.”
Another worth following today is Chad Ormsby, who lines up two promising 3-year-olds in Lord Weyburn (R2, No 3) and Beast of Burden (R5, No 1).
Both have shown plenty in their few starts, with Lord Weyburn having won two of his four starts this campaign, and his two losses came in elite 3-year-old company.
“He’s our Derby horse, so the 1300m might be a little sharp, but he’ll be running on well,” says Ormsby.
Beast of Burden has also dipped his toe into the big time, having taken on Crocetti and Lupo Solitario in the Sarten Memorial last start, while his two earlier placings were to talented types Geriatrix and Cannon Hill.
“I like him,” says Ormsby. “He’s working well, has a top jockey and a good draw, so he’ll sit just off the leaders and be really hard to beat.”
The $80,000 Taupō Cup is today’s feature, and while the best horse is undoubtedly Town Cryer, that means she has to carry the 60kg topweight and give 8.5kg to Good Oil, who gets a 4kg claim and likes to run handy to the speed, an appealing combination at the resort track.
● A fire in the grandstand at Avondale Racecourse on Thursday night won’t impact northern racing’s immediate programmes.
The fire was in a part of the stand not used on raceday and Avondale has no meetings planned in coming weeks as issues with the track are rectified.