Hope for 2024 in world awash with bad news
There’s a scary to-do list before we turn a positive corner, though
Ithink it’s fair to say 2023 turned out to be a pretty rubbish year. No sooner had Covid-19 receded and we learnt to cope better with it, we were into rain of biblical proportions, particularly in the north. Auckland and Coromandel, and then Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, experienced brutal reminders of nature’s force. Recovery from those storms became the theme of the year in those regions.
As I write, there are people whose lives are still upended by the Anniversary Weekend flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle, as those events approach anniversaries of their own.
Even those of us not badly affected couldn’t get away from the weather. In my own personal case, the MetService cheerily advised us at the end of last month that our local area had one third less sunshine than normal last year and 50 per cent more rain. That sentence is depressing all over again, just reading it back.
The economic hangover from Covid has been a grind, especially in this country. We have effectively spent much of the year in recession as the powers that be sought to unwind the inflationary forces created during the pandemic, and there is still much grinding out to be done. The previous Government was put out of its misery, and not before time it appears, given the state of the books at the end of the year.
But overshadowing it all has been the much darker world environment. Two major wars now rage, along with numerous regional ones we never hear about. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become a bloody war of attrition, and in October the IsraeliPalestinian conflict erupted again in a particularly savage fashion. We can debate the whys and wherefores endlessly, but the plain truth is that people are once again dying and being maimed in huge numbers in a conflict in the Middle East and history tells us it is highly unlikely to achieve lasting peace.
A fresh new year then brings a welcome opportunity to rule a line under 2023.
However, when it comes time, it won’t be easy to look back on this year more positively than last. The world’s inbox is piled up with stuff which will be difficult to resolve, and as a small player at the bottom of the globe we have limited influence over much of it. Still, we can hope.
Here’s my list of things I believe need to be true at the end of this year to be able to say the world turned a positive corner in 2024.
Domestically, the new Government has to grab the nettle and turn back the tide of increased government spending, particularly the huge amounts going out the door which achieve little. The preChristmas mini-mini Budget was mostly a metaphorical clearing of the throat. Now the real work starts.
The good news is if they do it right, the reduction in government expenditure will both help our country’s debt position and contribute to controlling inflation by cooling demand, particularly in Wellington. But it won’t be easy.
At the same time, ministers will have to rapidly make room for greater private sector economic activity, by creating a more permissive regulatory environment which encourages investment and innovation. Central government has to reduce its own activity to a level the country can afford, but the private sector needs to be both willing and encouraged to step up and fill the economic gap, or it will be a long slow year or three.
When it comes to the public sector, we need to start celebrating substance over form. Who cares who runs the school or hospital as long as it delivers great results for the people it works for?
This obsession with one central structure, and the “right” way of doing things needs to end. We need to unleash our pragmatic sensible streak for doing things, and lock away the ideological one — on both sides of the political divide.
So far, so straightforward — although challenging. Internationally, it all gets harder, although probably even more determinant of our futures.
First, the US and Europe must stay the course in Ukraine and beat back Putin. It is a truism that democracies tire of war long before autocracies, and the likes of Putin and the Iran’s “Supreme Leader” trade on that fact.
The current delays to muchneeded further funding for Ukraine from Europe and the US are signs to Putin and potential invaders everywhere that the old calculus still applies. For the sake of Ukraine, much of eastern Europe, Taiwan and other vulnerable states, the US in particular must stay the distance.
The current war is existential for the plucky Ukrainians but it is only costing the US a small proportion of its defence budget and none of its soldiers. If they fold now, the next one will undoubtedly be much more expensive in blood and treasure.
Second, cooler heads must somehow prevail in the Middle East, so a wider conflagration between Iran and its proxies on one side, and Israel and the west on the other, is prevented. I have read enough of the tangled history of the Levant in recent times to know how difficult that will be, but somehow the protagonists need to be persuaded to step back.
The only glimmer of hope is there are more countries in the region with a desire for peace than at any time since World War II — and hopefully they can bring their influence to bear.
And finally, I believe somehow the US needs to end the year with someone other than a President Trump or a President Biden in charge.
Overall I rate Biden, but it’s clear that his age-related struggles are real, and for that reason alone I suspect the US public won’t re-elect him.
On the other side, there have been some excellent Republican presidents in my lifetime but Donald Trump isn’t one of them. While most politicians have ego, this guy’s level of self-absorption is off the planet. If he is re-elected, the world will need to buckle up. And while he is unlikely to cause World War III, his isolationist instincts and willingness to placate strongman dictators will make one more likely, and surely no-one wants that. I don’t know how we end up with a brand-new US president by the end of the year but stranger things have happened.
Looking back at that list, it may seem quite unlikely that 2024 will be written up more positively than 2023. But at least the weather is looking a bit better, so far anyway.
Fingers crossed.
Steven Joyce is a former National Party Minister of Finance and Minister of Transport. He is director at Joyce Advisory, and author of a book on his time in office, On the Record.