And the nominations go to . . .
Oppenheimer and Barbie are safe bets for Oscars but other categories are wide open, writes Kyle Buchanan
When it comes to predicting the Oscars, you ultimately have to go with your gut . . . and mine is in a state of agita. That’s what happens when there are simply too many good movies and great performances to all make the cut: Even the hypothetical snubs I’m about to dole out have me tied up in knots.
Which names can you expect to hear on Wednesday when the nominations are announced? Here is what I project in the top six categories, based on industry chatter, key laurels from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, and the nominations bestowed by the Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America. Well, all of those things, and my poor, tormented gut.
Best Picture
Let’s start with the safest bets. Oppenheimer, Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon scored top nominations from the producers, directors and actors guilds this month, and I expect each film to earn double-digit Oscar nominations. The Holdovers and Poor Things are secure, too: although they didn’t make it into SAG’s bestensemble race, both films boast lead actors who’ve won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. If this were an old-school race, these would be the five nominees.
But there are five more slots to fill, and I project the next three will go to Past Lives and American Fiction,
passion picks with distinct points of view, as well as Maestro, the sort of ambitious biopic that Oscar voters are typically in the tank for.
I’m also betting that French courtroom drama Anatomy of a Fall
and German-language Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest find favour with the academy’s increasingly international voting body. (Even the Producers Guild, which so often favours big studio movies over global cinema, found room to nominate that pair.)
There are still a few dark horses that hope to push their way into this line-up, like The Color Purple, May December, Society of the Snow and Origin. But I suspect these 10 are locked and loaded.
Best Director
For as safely settled as the best picture line-up now appears to be, the best director category is anything but. This voting branch is famous for going its own way, often outright rejecting studio directors including Ben Affleck (Argo) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune ) in favour of more esoteric picks. Aside from Oppenheimer director Christopher Nolan, the race’s presumed front-runner, none of the other contenders should feel secure.
I do think it helps that Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) are the only auteurs in the mix who’ve earned more than one nomination from this branch in the past: Payne has three, while Scorsese has nine. A large fan base that consistently turns out for you can be valuable in such a competitive category.
DGA nominees Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) delivered two of the year’s most lavish, distinctive movies, but I still fear that one (or even both) could fall victim to a Denis Villeneuve-level snub. There are two surging international directors who may show up instead: Justine Triet, who won the prestigious Palme d’Or for Anatomy of a Fall, and Jonathan Glazer, who directed The Zone of Interest. I think the artier members of this branch might peel off from Lanthimos to reward Glazer’s challenging vision, but this is a category where anything could happen.
Best Actor
Holdovers star Paul Giamatti has come on strong during the televised portion of awards season, taking the Golden Globe for best actor in a comedy or musical and the Critics Choice award for best actor, period.
His two strongest competitors are likely to be Cillian Murphy, the face of Oppenheimer, and the nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper, who has a showy, transformative role in Maestro. Murphy won the Golden Globe for best actor in a drama but may be held back by sentiment that the real star of Oppenheimer is Nolan, while Cooper’s candidacy is hindered by a lack of televised prizes so far. Both men feel like shoo-ins to be nominated, but they’ll need to pick up a SAG Award next month to stay neck and neck with Giamatti.
I feel good about predicting a nod for American Fiction lead Jeffrey Wright, who earns big cheers at every awards show when his name is read, even if that affection hasn’t yet resulted in a win. But the fifth slot is in flux. Although Rustin star Colman Domingo earned a SAG nomination and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) has a lot of fans, I think Leonardo DiCaprio ultimately gets in: it’s true that he was dealt a surprising snub by the actors guild, but Killers of the Flower Moon is a bigger contender than the films Domingo and Scott are fronting, and there tends to be a strong correlation between the best actor and best picture categories.
Best Actress
Would any of the other categories kindly consider donating a few nomination slots to the best actress race? There are too many formidable candidates to have to whittle these women down to five, and on nomination morning, the snubs here will no doubt be the most painful.
At least Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Emma Stone (Poor Things) have no reason to worry. Those two Golden Globe winners should be considered the lockiest of locks but who gets to keep them company in the category.
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) ticks off so many boxes that this branch responds to — real person, unusual accent, prosthetics-aided ageing — and has shown up at every precursor so far. Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) missed a SAG nomination, but international actresses rarely fare well there, and I think the academy will be eager to reward Huller for a tremendous year that also included her supporting performance in The Zone of Interest.
Natalie Portman does some of the best work of her career in May December, but the film simply isn’t catching on with the guilds, and she now has to be considered a contender on the bubble. Ditto Fantasia BarrinoTaylor, who has some powerhouse moments late in The Color Purple but wasn’t able to manage a SAG nomination. And although Past Lives star Greta Lee is worthy, her work may be too understated to surpass such flashy competition.
That leaves us with Annette Bening, SAG-nominated for her tough, physical role in Nyad, and the
Barbie linchpin Margot Robbie. I give Robbie the edge since her film is such a strong contender across the board, but effervescent comedy is the sort of thing voters often take for granted, and Robbie made her tricky role look as easy as breathing.
Best Supporting Actor
It’s “Barbenheimer” redux in this category, where Oppenheimer foe Robert Downey Jr. and Barbie beau Ryan Gosling will probably go headto-head for the gold. Robert De Niro, so memorably malevolent in Killers of the Flower Moon, is also in a strong position to be nominated after nods from SAG, Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, plus a mention on the Bafta longlist.
After those three contenders, things get hazy.
A pair of buzzy young actors could fill the last two spots: Charles Melton
(May December) and Dominic Sessa
(The Holdovers). But the academy is weirdly resistant to nominating young men, and neither Melton nor Sessa broke through at SAG. The actors guild did nominate Sterling K. Brown, who plays Wright’s brother in
American Fiction and could certainly score with the academy if the film performs well.
Still, with so many performances to choose from, I think voters may default to two veteran actors from one of the season’s strongest films,
Poor Things. Willem Dafoe already managed a SAG nod for playing Emma Stone’s cuckoo creator, and although his co-star Mark Ruffalo was dealt a surprising snub by the guild, SAG gave him a similar cold shoulder for Spotlight before the Oscar nominations came in with a lastminute save.
Best Supporting Actress
Is Da’Vine Joy Randolph from The Holdovers this year’s heir apparent to Ke Huy Quan and Troy Kotsur? Those two supporting actors swamped their competition all season on the way to absolutely assured Oscar wins in recent years, and Randolph has been following suit, bagging critics’ awards right and left and taking every televised trophy so far.
Although Randolph is far ahead in this race, three other actresses have showed consistent strength, earning citations on the Bafta longlist as well as nominations from the actors guild, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. In other words, save room for Jodie Foster (Nyad), Emily Blunt
(Oppenheimer) and Danielle Brooks
(The Color Purple).
If Barbie overperforms, America Ferrera could sail in on the strength of her galvanising monologue, while Taraji P. Henson may be nominated alongside Brooks if The Color Purple mounts a comeback. But I have a feeling this category will be filled out by someone who is the lone representative from her movie, such as SAG nominee Penelope Cruz (ferocious in Ferrari), Rosamund Pike (delicious in Saltburn )ormy pick, Julianne Moore, who could mount a last stand for May December in a category that’s prone to curveballs.