Wellington Cup conundrum: Staying contest is lacking elite horses
Few things sum up the complex puzzle of backing a Wellington Cup winner like the fact Canheroc is the only last-start winner in the field of 21 at Trentham today.
The iconic staying contest is the signature race of the capital’s biggest raceday, even though the $400,000 Thorndon Mile contains better horses.
That is the reality of our biggest staying races these days, the big Cups rarely contain the elite horses, with the Auckland Cup the rare exception that gets a crossover of weight-for-age horses.
There are many reasons. Plenty of promising young stayers get sold to Australia, the ones that stay require patience and plenty of work, and few are competitive at any distance below 2200m, so rack up a lot more losses than wins.
They end up with four or five days a year on which they can shine, which is why Marton Cup winner Canheroc is the only last-start winner in today’s $300,000 feature, and even he has won only four of 27 starts.
Punters have to weigh which of today’s combatants has the soundness, fitness, stamina and will to win to want to run through the pain barrier halfway down the Trentham straight.
Waisake has been there, done that, three years ago, and his third in the Trentham Stakes last Saturday was almost as good as winning form, especially as this is really the only race of the season that matters to his connections.
He deserves to be favourite for jockey Matt Cameron, who also rides top pick Campionessa in the Thorndon Mile at a meeting missing Opie Bosson, Michael McNab and Ryan Elliot through suspension.
The way Canheroc bolted in for the Marton Cup suggests he can win again, Roccia can, too, if she can avoids traffic issues, while Central Districts stayer Never Look Back is underrated and. as the veteran of just 10 starts, has less convictions than many today.
A horse capable of winning on class and track stats is Ess Vee Are but co-trainer Darryn Weatherley admits his sixth at Pukekohe last start was hardly inspiring.
“We’re just hoping he’s better lefthanded and his work has been great, so we wouldn’t be surprised if he turns it around,” says Weatherley.
But these days, Wellington Cup punting is hard, with the era of greats such as Kiwi and Castletown winning a distant memory.
Today’s Cup winner will more than likely be the one who stays best and gets an uninterrupted run. Maybe Waisake.
But before you go throwing too much of your hard-earned cash on him, consider this: it is two years and five days since he last won and he has run only three placings in 17 starts since.
Million dollar question
Almost everybody got what they wanted out of the last Ellerslie track work session before next Saturday’s mammoth TAB Karaka Millions meeting.
Everybody except the team behind the most-punted horse in the juvenile dash, Cool ’N’ Fast.
Cool ’N’ Fast ended any rumours about him being sore when he paraded sound and galloped straight in his two-horse workout quickening over 600m but it was still hardly stellar stuff.
While he and partner When Stars Align recorded the fastest last 600m of the morning in 34.82s, Cool ’N’ Fast was being ridden by Bosson, who admitted the colt remains a work in progress.
“He can have a real attitude and I had to really push him but he was also like that when he won at Pukekohe,” said Bosson.
Cool ’N’ Fast has been backed to win $1 million by the Boys Get Paid syndicate and nobody doubts his ability but it might take a special feat of horsemanship to keep him settled and focused next Saturday.
On a morning full of stars, juvenile favourites Velocious and Bellatrix Star galloped perfectly, Lupo Solitario looks to be peaking for the $1.5m Three-Year-Old race and Molly Bloom wasn’t asked to raise a sweat as she cantered around to just have a look at Ellerslie.
The barrier draws will be released on Wednesday.