big — or lose large

for years with government policies seen to encroach on faces the greatest risk — or reward — in the days ahead.

such that he will keep naysayers in check. He exerts a degree of ownership over events with his famous Waitangi Day party, which typically serves as a barometer of influence depending on who is attending.

So, he could be the ballast the Government needs to sail through — or he could become a focus for palpable frustration. John Tamihere (Te Pāti Māori president, so, not absent skin in the game) says: “If he keeps going the way he’s going, he’s passing a point from which there is no return.”

Even when you lose, you win

David Seymour, Act leader It’s hard to see how Seymour could come out of Waitangi Day badly (short of curling up in a ball on the ground at the first pukana).

In the months since the election, Seymour has popped up across traditional and social media talking about his desire to review the Treaty of Waitangi principles and to bring equal rights to all in New Zealand.

Should he become the focus of protest at Waitangi, it will boost his profile in the eyes of his supporters and be seen as proof he is poking the right bear. So even if it goes badly, Waitangi will go well for Seymour. As Hooton says: “He already owns the space he wants to own and the days ahead will only entrench that.”

There are those who say Seymour is running out of road. He’s been talking about wanting a debate on the Treaty principles yet Act’s select committee inquiry is seen by many in te ao Māori (and outside it) as a rort, happening in an environment suited to producing an outcome in line with Seymour’s political push.

Professor Margaret Mutu, esteemed academic and chairwoman of the Iwi Leaders Group, said: “He’s asked for a debate but he has never come near me as an academic or at the national iwi leaders forum”.

A time to shine Te Pāti Māori

Fresh from success at the election, Te Pāti Māori is making its own way on to the marae at Waitangi rather than the practice of previous years in which all Opposition parties are welcomed together. It will do so with Mariameno Kapa-Kingi from the Far North as Te Tai Tokerau MP and one of its six MPs.

With Kapa-Kingi among its number it can, as with almost everywhere in the country, lay claim to a local connection through which it can represent Māori across the country.

This is a different Te Pāti Māori to that which came out of the foreshore and seabed debate and protests in 2004 but — as then — comes at a time in which there are issues on which it can serve as a unifying focus and force.

This is a party that, as president Tamihere says, lives as much in te ao Māori. “We’re in a totally different constitutional space in terms of representing the voice of Māori.” And Waitangi provides an ideal stage from which its unique voice can be heard — as its new MPs did when arriving at the big marae called Parliament after the election.

Expect to see co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer leading a group of MPs on to Waitangi in a way people will be talking about for years.

As Act benefits from its political moves in the space of Crown-Māori relations so does Te Pāti Māori. Lee-Mather says: “The people who stand to gain is Te Pāti Māori. [The current debate] draws attention to them, unifies young people.”

Hometown advantage

Willow-Jean Prime, Peeni Henare — Labour list MPs, rising stars of Labour Māori caucus, local heroes

The Labour Party has yet to recover from its election trouncing or to have the internal conversation in which it finds its true north.

While leader Chris Hipkins has little to win or lose (“irrelevant”, as a number of people interviewed said), MPs Henare and Prime have the opportunity to mark out their political futures and influence in Labour’s Māori caucus.

That’s important, not only for Labour securing Māori seats in future elections but in how the party communicates with the rest of New Zealand in the context of the widely held view it went too far, too fast, in meeting Māori aspirations.

Henare and Prime have a hometown advantage — both have roots in nearby Moerewa — which will allow them to be in the background of most set pieces without having to make much noise.

All of us Aotearoa New Zealand

Everyone that lives in this country has a lot at stake over the next few days. The speeches to be given, the reception greeting those such as Luxon, Peters and Seymour, and the forces that unleashes in the years to come will impact all of us.

Waitangi has long been about taking a measure of progress on the document that led to the creation of New Zealand. The friction seen in previous years has provided Māori an opportunity to speak and for those in power to listen, levelling an imbalance that exists across much of the rest of the year. In recent years, there has been less friction, which perhaps signalled progress in a direction that suited Māori. The support garnered by the Act Party and NZ First on policies described as anti-Māori showed not all considered that a good thing.

The debate which has followed will be of enormous importance to New Zealand — not only what we talk about but how we do so and how wellequipped we are to have that conversation. These times will test our nation. Have you studied for that test?

Do you know the articles of the Treaty? Do you know whose signature on that document represents you today? Do you know what followed in Northland, then Taranaki, Waikato and across the rest of the country? Do you know how the Treaty came into law in the 1970s?

And what of the settlement process — do you know who got what and whether that was a good deal? Do you know why we have Waitangi Day?