Ghosts of PMs past haunting Luxon
When it comes to foreign policy and China, everyone’s got a view
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon does not have the shifting sands of New Zealand’s international branding and foreign policy to himself.
As Luxon and his lieutenants move New Zealand closer into the embrace of old security partners, the “formers” , particularly former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark when it comes to joining “Pillar 2” of the Aukus security partnership, are seen to the incumbent Cabinet Ministers as having an outsize influence on public debate.
The “formers” are open players in New Zealand’s political debates.
These former Prime Ministers may not hold direct positional power but unconstrained by office they do exert considerable influence. They are street-wise and know how to deliver a political punch when they deem it is required.
And they are accessible to news media.
Just three examples: Former National Prime Minister Sir John Key blasted the Ardern Government for operating a “hermit kingdom” closing off New Zealand to the world for far too long. Another former National Prime Minister, Jim Bolger, slammed our political leaders for failing to meet with the protesters who took over Parliament’s lawn as they railed against Covid mandates. Then Clark herself combined with old rival Don Brash to rail against the Luxon Government, asking it to make clear that “we want no part of Aukus, or of any other alliance designed to make an enemy of our largest trading partner” (that being China).
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will be in the United States next week for meetings with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
Top of the agenda will be security considerations in the Indo-Pacific (read China) and the disasters in Gaza and the Ukraine. It’s all in preparation for an expected visit by Luxon to Washington DC in July for the 75th anniversary summit of Nato where he will likely catch up with US President Joe Biden.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has said the United States will have something to say next week about other countries wishing to join Aukus Pillar 2, which involves accelerating development and sharing of advanced military technology, including drones, hypersonic missiles and deep-space radar.
The Luxon Government has staked a claim here and it is notable an expected announcement coincides with Peters’ visit.
During an informal lunch session during a joint visit to Melbourne by Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins to meet their counterparts earlier this year, the group was said to be openly exasperated at the cacophony of interventions by the “formers”.
Clark has also railed against the Luxon Government’s support for the United States’ missile strikes in Yemen. And Labor’s Paul Keating has savaged A$368b Aukus nuclear submarine plan as the “worst deal in all history”.
This all cuts across our relationship with China.
The Albanese Government was openly frustrated when China’s powerful foreign minister Wang Yi fitted in a separate meeting with Keating on his recent visit to Australia. Foreign Minister Penny Wong went public on the eve of Wang’s meeting with her terse putdown: “Mr Keating is entitled to his views.”
Keating had earlier bagged the Aukus partnership as about preserving US “hegemony” in East Asia by seeking to contain China. “What Anthony Albanese has done
. . . is he’s screwed into place the last shackle in the long chain which the Americans have laid out to contain China.”
He suggested China’s “great sin” was developing its economy to equal that of the US.
Wang’s programme did not allow for meetings with any of the Kiwi “formers” during his own prior visit to Wellington. It’s not entirely clear why Beijing did not allow for a catchup with representatives from business and think-tanks (as happened in Australia). Let alone any of those formers who do have considerable street cred with the Chinese hierarchy.
Take Dame Jenny Shipley. As chair of the Apec Leaders Summit in 1999, Shipley accommodated Chinese President Jiang Zemin. In her postpolitical career, the former National Prime Minister went on to serve on the board of China Construction Bank and chair the local offshoot, as well as serve on the influential Boao Forum for Asia.
Clark then took the initiative and spent a considerable amount of her political capital as Prime Minister in getting New Zealand’s historic bilateral free-trade deal with China off the ground. She went against the sentiment of former Australian Prime Minister John Howard by agreeing New Zealand would recognise China as a “market economy” — an effective quid pro quo for the deal. In many respects, Clark’s tilt to China built on the forward-leaning strategy of National’s Jim Bolger for New Zealand to orient itself to the massive Asian growth market.
Key built on Clark’s legacy. During his time as Prime Minister he led annual business missions to China to leverage the FTA and grow bilateral trade. Key numbers Chinese President Xi Jinping among his “political friends” and is openly a “China bull”. His positioning in China is such that the Chinese ambassador was able to finesse a meeting with Wang for Key and Zespri representatives during a recent visit to Beijing.
All three of these former New Zealand Prime Ministers have a broad view of China and a relatively cleareyed view of the United States. So much so Clark openly suggests China is not the only major power to “spy” — a response to New Zealand’s recent condemnation of China for its “malicious cyber activity”.
It is notable that on Wang’s last visit to New Zealand in preparation for an official visit by then-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang he was hosted by then-Foreign Minister Murray McCully to a luncheon at Auckland’s Soul Bar. But the Wellington meetings at Parliament were all about laying the political and diplomatic groundwork for a potential visit by Chinese Premier Li Qiang mid-year.
Ironically, as relations between Australia and China are stabilising, China is having to accommodate New Zealand’s clear moves into the Western “democratic” camp.
Wang and his Australia counterpart Penny Wong said plans for Premier Li Qiang to visit Australia mid-year were “on track”.
The timing is not yet locked in stone for either Australia or New Zealand. Luxon’s challenge will be to clearly articulate New Zealand’s developing positioning on China in a fashion which does not deny the clear economic benefits to this country from the two crucial decades in which the “formers” forged relationships to this country’s betterment.