Bull market stays strong

Mediocre reporting fails to put dent in record run

Amediocre company reporting season has failed to put a dent in the sharemarket’s record-breaking bull run.

For the most part, the reporting season was reflective of an economy coming off the boil, yet the sharemarket continues push higher.

“It was certainly not a disaster, but the season just reflected an economy that was somewhat slower than it has been,” Matt Goodson, managing director at Salt Funds Management, said.

“Also our market performance has occurred on the back of stronger equity markets worldwide and lower bond yields,” he said.

“Those factors, rather than the reporting season, has driven recent market strength,” Goodson said.

Mark Brown, chief investment officer at Devon Asset Management, said that despite it being largely muted reporting season, share prices looked expensive.

“The market has had a phenomenal 10-year run which has been largely unbroken, leading us to a point where many would agree we are expensive both on a historic level and an international peer comparison level,” Brown said.

“Unfortunately for the bears, continued low interest rates and strong investment flows means it is hard to argue for sustained derating.

“However, the more expensive we become the more fragile our market becomes,” he said.

The undisputed star of the season was a2 Milk, which reported a 55 per cent lift in net profit to $152.7 million for the six months to December.

On strength of the result, analysts are now looking at revenue coming in at $1.35 billon for the June year, which would be up 46 per cent on last year’s figure, and ebitda of $420m, up 48.4 per cent.

“Certainly the a2 Milk result was a highlight,” Salt Funds’ Goodson said. “It was very strong, and justified the high earnings multiple that it trades on.” The a2 Milk price rallied sharply on the back of the result.

While Fisher and Paykel Healthcare will not report its next result until May, the stock rallied sharply after advising it had settled its tit-fortat patent war with US rival ResMed.

Cinema software specialist Vista was another glad surprise, with 22.6 per cent sales growth to $130.7m for calendar 2018 and a 26.7 per cent jump in annual net profit to $12.3m.

Contact Energy and Port of Tauranga produced solid results, but Spark, Ebos and Chorus, were weaker than expected.

The cyclical stocks fared the worst, such as Fletcher Building, Air New Zealand and Tourism Holdings.

Fletcher’s six-monthly operating earnings fell 8 per cent and it spooked the market by saying it’s thinking of taking on more high-rise projects after losing nearly $1b on such projects in the 18 months to last June 30.

While Air NZ reported a 34 per cent drop in net profit to $152m, the company said it was sticking with its annual pre-tax earnings forecast of $340m to $400m for the year to June.

Tourism Holdings posted a 23 per cent decline in first-half profit and lowered its guidance for the full year.

The string of earnings disappointments for Manuka honey company Comvita continued when it reported a $2.7m loss for the half, which saw the stock sold off sharply.

Dairy co-op Fonterra downgraded its earnings forecast to between 15c and 25c a share from a previous forecast of 25c to 35c a share, blaming the increased milk price which saw it hike the farmgate price to its supplier-shareholders.

Vista shares were the best performer in the last week of February, gaining 13.9 per cent.

The worst performer was Sky Network Television whose shares fell 22.8 per cent in the month.