Trump is facing tough election
United States President Donald Trump is famously not shy about self-promotion and praise.
But should he win re-election in seven months, even after the country has staggered through an economy-busting health emergency, it would truly be a historic achievement.
The US only had 332 cases and 17 Covid-19 deaths just over a month ago. But it now tops worldwide case numbers with more than 312,100 cases and 8500 deaths. It took 66 days for the country to get to 100,000 cases but only five days to then reach 200,000 and a further three days to get to 300,000.
Critics of Trump’s handling of the pandemic argue he hobbled preparedness, ignored warnings, downplayed the threat, was slow to take action and is still fumbling.
Trump has shifted blame on to state governors saying “frankly, many of the states were unprepared for this” and veered between sombre warnings and risky impatience to “reopen” America.
The virus is immune to tactics that have served Trump in the past. It has its own timeline, it dominates the news, it can’t be distracted.
Probably neither the virus nor the economic fallout will clear by November. Senior US medical official Dr Anthony Fauci says a second wave of the virus is likely in the northern autumn. And any vaccine is estimated to be a year away.
George W. Bush managed to get re-elected in 2004 as America was fighting two foreign wars, but deaths from the coronavirus have already surpassed US casualties from Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001.
Aside from highlighting flaws in the health system, Covid-19 is taking a staggering economic toll in the US with at least 10 million already filing for unemployment. The US$2.2 trillion stimulus package passed last month was the biggest intervention ever undertaken by Congress.
At present, Trump’s job approval and favourability ratings are at the high end of his usual range. Other leaders have received popularity bounces. The worst is yet to hit in the US, and a backlash could follow.
Presidents usually get credit when the economy is performing well, but elections can become a referendum on the incumbent when it isn’t.
That’s shaping to be the case this time and, in his likely opponent former Vice-President Joe Biden, Trump will face someone with experience in dealing with economic and health crises.
While Trump holds daily briefings, Biden is unable to campaign and conducts interviews from his Delaware basement. But he leads Trump by an average of 6 points in RealClearPolitics.com national polls.