How well did Ardern rate as PM?
Chris Hipkins’ ambitions for New Zealand as Prime Minister have been expressed in more modest terms than Jacinda Ardern’s grand plans for transformative change when she took office.
So far, he has limited his ambition to one famously expressed by Muldoon when asked what his vision was — to leave the country in better shape than when he started.
Hipkins is clearly conscious that one of the essentials of a successful politician is to manage expectations, to not over-promise at the risk of under-delivering.
Not very many leaders leave a legacy. Helen Clark’s achievement of Working for Families and the Superannuation Fund was more associated with her finance minister, Michael Cullen. John Key tried to leave a legacy by attempting to change the flag, secure the TPP trade deal and establish the Kermadec marine sanctuary but all failed.
Ardern’s strongest legacy is not clearly evident yet but it may turn out to be her role in child poverty reduction and expanding lunches in schools. She was not afraid to make big gestures and set ambitious goals. But it left her exposed to attacks that she failed to deliver.
So what is Ardern’s record as she leaves office as Prime Minister?
Child poverty: 7
She gets a relatively high mark because while progress has not been dramatic, she has made it an issue that must be addressed by every government. One of her most important decisions was to make herself the Minister of Child Poverty Reduction. It was a way of giving it top priority and, having passed the Child Poverty Reduction Act, every government is now required to report on the progress of child poverty under specified measures. Children living in material hardship have dropped from 25 per cent in 2011 to 11 per cent in 2021. An ambition to do more was thwarted by the Covid crisis.
Climate change: 6
Despite the perpetual grizzling from both ends of the spectrum about progress being too slow or too fast, Ardern (with Green co-leader James Shaw) has shifted the centre of gravity on the issue and created a legacy. She has put in place the legal architecture required to get meaningful reductions in emissions, and worked closely with farmer groups.
Housing: 5
The easiest area to make promises; the hardest to deliver. Failures were recognised after 18 months in office and the unrealistic Kiwibuild goals were ditched by a new minister. But housing is a slow beast to turn around. An extra 2000 state houses a year has not kept pace with demand and waiting lists have increased by 350 per cent. Emergency housing has increased by about 1000 places a year but it has not been enough. The private sector story is more mixed. Over 213,000 new building consents have been issued during her term.
Mortgage interest rates are rising but house prices are falling and incomes have increased. There are various housing affordability indexes but one produced by Infometrics uses average current house values to average household incomes, and suggests it has got harder to buy a house from a ratio of 6.6 in 2018 to
8.7 in 2022.
Economy: 7
More the domain of her political partner Grant Robertson, but Jacinda Ardern cannot claim to have left the economy generally in better shape than they both found it, nor claim great credit for the bits that are better or be blamed for the worst. The Covid crisis skews comparisons. Unemployment might be only 3.3 per cent but that is because the borders were closed for so long. Debt may be at record highs and inflation may have caused the cost of living crisis, but that’s the result of the Government and central banks keeping businesses afloat and preventing economic collapse.
Crisis management: 10
John Key may have done a superb job during the Global Financial Crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes but Jacinda Ardern was next-level in crisis management. The terrorist attack on the Christchurch mosques, the eruption of Whakaari-White Island and the early management of the Covid-19 pandemic were a test of leadership — and it was exceptional.
Mā ori-Crown relations: 5
Big pluses and big minuses amount to this fairly average end result. Ardern herself has championed a stronger recognition of Mā ori in policy ranging from history in schools and Matariki to the Mā ori health authority, Te Aka Whai Ora, Three Waters co-governance entities, and the drive to transform the public service into a Treaty-compliant partner. The trouble is the lack of a plan, and lack of explanation about co-governance in the face of clear anxiety. In many ways, she has left Aotearoa New Zealand more divided than when she took office.
International diplomacy: 8
Ardern’s global recognition is without precedent for a New Zealand Prime Minister and was evident by the avalanche of accolades when she announced her resignation. It was acquired first through the novelty of a modern PM giving birth in office, then cemented through inspiring leadership in 2019 after the mosque massacre. She used this international star power to promote New Zealand’s interests with Europe and Asia, before and after the heights of Covid. She helped secure the conclusion of the CPTPP, and trade deals with UK and the EU, and promoted the Christchurch Call to eliminate online extremism. She used climate change politics to strengthen relations with the Pacific. She rejuvenated the previously-close relations with
Japan. She positioned New Zealand at a polite distance from China without jeopardising the relationship or alienating the hawks in Five Eyes. She did little to engage with Donald Trump’s government, but that is a plus, not a minus. She has had some blips in navigating New Zealand’s role in the great power competition between the US and China.
Leading Labour: 9
Ardern will go down as one of the best Labour leaders, not on her achievements but because of her strength of leadership in times of crisis. It is that which has allowed the party to govern alone this term for the first time under MMP.
It is always easier to lead from Government but she managed to keep Labour unified through the five years. She improved with experience in the House and was hardly ever beaten by an Opposition MP. She left on her own terms.