Why the Lagos housing sch

When I think of Lagos, series of images rise to mind: a piece of land thrown into the boundless ocean; a city surrounded by a busy seashore with unending waves; disenchanted lives with hurrying spirits. On this land bedded in the shingle is a chorus of thriving businesses, an arresting entertainment industry, irresistible hospitality, depth of cultural values and virtues, and an uncommon stretch of humankind.

IWAS BORN HERE, I GREW up here and I love it here in Lagos. Admittedly, as a non-indigene of the State, I am not one of those for whom Lagos is an ancestral home. But what really matters is to be a “Lagosian”, or, simply, one of the millions of people who come over to Lagos in search of greener pastures. Indeed, over the years, the opportunities of this city have made it home for everyone. And that’s why it keeps growing.

An unrestrained and uneven growth

Lagos spans only 1,171 square kilometres but it never fails to receive approximately 6,000 people per day, as some have claimed. Across its 20 local government areas (LGAs), the state’s population has been on the rise for as long as it has been the hub for trade and commerce on this side of the Niger. Today, it is somewhere between 21 and 25 million people, accounting for almost 13% of the national population.

The economic strength of Lagos makes it easy for it to entreat its inhabitants to stay, irrespective of the pains of stagnancy caused by bad roads and numerous vehicles, and the rowdy ambience of densely populated suburbs like Idumota, Agege, Ojodu Berger, Okokomaiko among others. Even my parents and grandparents still find it extremely difficult to return to Kwara State, my state of origin.

Unfortunately, the rate at which the population has increased across the local government areas has not been uniform nor as expected. Epe, for instance, has the largest land mass (965 square kilometres) in the State and yet it is inhabited by the second smallest number of people – less than half a million which is just 1.84% of the entire Lagos population as projected in 2017. Along with such obvious differences in population densities among LGAs, there’s also an imbalance in the availability of housing for newcomers to the state.

Sheltering the homeless

Shelter is a basic human necessity, and for a city constantly on the move, it is an indispensable one. A 6-8% population growth rate makes Lagos Africa’s fastest growing city and the 7th in the world. Yet, there was a housing deficit of about 3 million as at 2016.

“Deficits are on the increase just from a cursory look at the supply side of things in the market,” Roland Igbinoba, a real estate consultant, explained for this story. Mr Igbinoba, who monitors the mortgage market and engages with governments on housing policy, thinks the “deficits will continue to rise if there is no deliberate investment” by the state government in housing. The implication, according to him, will be seen in the “proliferation of slums” and “rents will continue to rise as urban migration increases”.

Indeed, the population of Lagos is expected to triple suggesting there is a real danger of an escalation in homelessness and destitution if housing deficits are not addressed. The problem is that, while areas like Lagos Island, Agege, Shomolu, Mushin and Ajeromi Ifelodun appear to have reached their maximum capacities, others like Badagry, Epe and Ibeju Lekki areas are yet to be explored as much. In these latter, there are still plenty of vacant lands to situate more homes.

Many years ago, foresighted people took advantage of the availability of these vacant lands to build property when their prices were relatively low. Fortunately, my father was one of them. With an average income at the time, he acquired two plots of land in three different locations along the Badagry expressway. Today, he is enjoying the dividends of that investment. Although more people have joined the fray, the prices of vacant lands have become much higher now due to the rise in socioeconomic standards and recent development being carried out in those areas. For the majority though, a lasting and more central solution to the housing challenge is required.

HOMS: The silver bullet for housing in Lagos

Since the 21,000 units constructed across 12 locations by the Lateef Jakande administration in 1983, there have been no new housing projects on such a scale in Lagos state – until 2014 when the Home Ownership Mortgage Scheme (HOMS) was conceived. The Lagos HOMS project was designed to be the state’s flagship scheme for investment in home ownership through mortgage finance for first-time buyers, people who have not owned a property in the city.

The HOMS project was created as a transparent means to provide opportunities for residents of the State to live in better homes and becoming a beneficiary required going through an application process. People were expected to fill out details such as their residential history for five years, their residential status (tenant, homeowner or other) at the time of application, and the number of dependants they have. Other information required include employment details (particularly about income) as well as those concerning the individual’s expenditures, liabilities and loans.

Although this initiative was targeted specifically at residents of Lagos, it was also meant to indirectly cater for the rapidly increasing population of the State as a result of urbanization. However, applicants were required to intend to live in the houses for which they applied as there were to be no transfers or resale of homes.

In 2016, the Ambode administration inaugurated the Rent-To-Own scheme as part of the Lagos HOMS project. Under this scheme, individuals were required to pay only 5% of the cost of the housing unit as the commitment fee with the balance spread over a period of 10 years. The government then developed 5008 housing units spread across the 3 senatorial districts and situated within 12 housing estates. These estates are located in areas of low population density which is probably due to the high availability of land in those areas.

The scheme has the highest number of units in Ikorodu followed by Alimosho and Ibeju Lekki. Interestingly, Ikorodu and Ibeju Lekki have lower population densities compared to other local governments like Surulere, Shomolu, Oshodi Isolo and Ajeromi Ifelodun. Therefore siting the housing units suggests an anticipation of migration flows in the direction of those two locations.

However, this does not explain the reason for so many units in Alimosho which is the most densely populated local government area in the State. Neither does it account for the fact that Epe, which has one of the least landmass-to-population ratios, has relatively few housing units allocated to it.

On a tour of the housing units in Badagry and Igando, I noticed that they were, as yet, unoccupied. The apartments in Badagry lined into the expanse of land dominated by the sound of birds chirping which broke through the stillness of the air. The tarred, unpaved and empty road stretched forth and seemed to disappear about five kilometres into the distance. The Igando units were slightly more alive, perhaps because they were facing other residential buildings. The roads were untarred and unpaved, and there were signs of illegal occupants in the lower floors of some of the units. A local informed me that those illegal occupants had arrangements of sorts with the security men.

These visits made me wonder even more about the siting of these housing units. I asked myself about the factors that determined the location of those housing projects and, more generally, the Rent-to-Own apartments in Lagos. While a lot of attention is placed on migration into this city, data on the population densities of its different local government areas should give a hint about how migration takes place within it. This information can better help determine where the housing units should be situated.

Understanding the motives of migration population

Migration can be motivated by the pursuit of economic opportunities, social mobility, political and environmental pressures. My family migrated, when I was 17, from Ajeromi Ifelodun Local Government to Otto Awori in Ojo Local Government. My father had retired and felt no need to continue paying the house rent, so we moved into our uncompleted building. Then, my mother would journey three times every week back to her shop in