eme may be flawed

Ajeromi-ifelodun so that she could augment my dad’s monthly stipend. If my parents had had the chance, they would have preferred to own a house in Ajeromi Ifelodun.

People will likely migrate from locations of poor commercial and social vibrancy to a better one. For instance, people obviously prefer places like the “developed” Victoria Island with high employment viability and relatively safe to places like the “developing” Ajegunle where the commercial activities and security aren’t convincing.

It is reasonable to suggest that the Rentto-Own apartments, in their respective locations, will witness significant adoption if the government puts in place adequate “pullers” to attract people to those locations. The pullers could be in the form of commercial and industrial activities supported by improved transportation systems. The ongoing projects and industrial hubs in Ikorodu Local Government – Imota Light Industrial Park, the 32 metric tonnes Rice Mill, the Mile 12 new site and Timber Ville (Oko Baba Revamped) – are important examples of pullers. By the time these projects reach completion, the housing units in Ikorodu axis will likely be occupied.

Similarly, the densely populated Alimosho could be expected to draw even more people ever since the government tweeted its decision to relocate Computer Village to the ICT Park in Agbado/Oke-Odo Local Council Development Area. For Ibeju Lekki, the population is likely to multiply by several factors as a result of the ongoing Lekki free trade zone and Dangote refinery projects being developed there.

There are definitely ways in which the government can lure people to less dense areas where the Rent-to-Own housing units are situated. It is natural to be attracted by places that promise better quality of social, cultural and commercial life. People will migrate once the flower blossoms – when they identify a chance for growth in those locations.

How can the flower blossom?

People don’t just migrate. Aside from pullers that foster migration, people want to see positive things happen. For example, they will only migrate to the less dense local government areas of Ikorodu, Ibeju Lekki and Badagry if they witness or perceive similar or improved socioeconomic standards to the ones they enjoy in the areas they currently live. And this is often accompanied by a rise in commercial and industrial activity.

A number of key factors contribute to citizens’ unwillingness to take uncalculated risks. One of them is a lack of information. In about a year after we moved, my mother stopped her business in Ajeromi-ifelodun. She had set up a new shop at our new house. She sold only provisions and soft drinks but business was going well. She knew this because she had the information required to calculate her risks.

Let’s consider the daily commute of workers in Lagos. My father’s workplace was at Victoria Island. He had been commuting al- most every day from our house in Ajegunle to his Kofo Abayomi office since I was in primary two. When I started secondary school, I joined him. In those days, we would drag ourselves from sleep at 5am in the morning in order to beat the Apongbon traffic and the sure gridlock on the Air Force Officers Mess bottleneck. At half past 8am, he would drop me off at school before resuming at his office – oftentimes late. But returning home was even more hectic. Even as a kid, I was sure my father would have gladly accepted another job if it were closer to home.

Comfort and ease of the mobility of labour are key factors determining the likelihood of residence and internal migration in Lagos state. Transportation systems play a crucial role in influencing the level of comfort possible to residents who have to live and work within the metropolis so that an affordable system that provides ease of navigation would be a major attraction for people to reside in certain areas. These are the sort of calculations made by working citizens in Lagos.

Sadly, transportation is decrepit in many areas of Lagos; and the rail mass transit system, which promised so much, is crawling to completion. The project is a seven-line plan but the first one, the blue line, is still under construction. What is worse, citizens are not provided with any information about when it will be ready. This results in uncertainty and unpredictable migration patterns.

Looking beyond demographic data: Makoko

The state could do with paying attention to collecting and providing datasets beyond population and population density. Understanding the social factors driving migratory patterns calls for more focus on mining behavioural data. Because of its rich, qualitative and multidisciplinary nature, behavioural data will provide deeper insights for a robust policy approach.

Acquiring datasets like behavioural data and spatial analysis will help the government map out patterns and carry out a predictive analysis of when and where people will tend to migrate by the time Lagos celebrates its diamond age. This precisely human centred data supersedes random quantitative data as it uproots the true reason for urbanization.

Furthermore, making this important data available to the public would help the government garner suggestions and expert advice on more datasets to mine.

One example is public contracting data. Although we read about Rent-to-Own housing units being released to individuals, we know too little about how those projects were executed, who the builders were, when they were contracted and for how much. When such data is made publicly available, prospective owners of those housing would know, for example, when the estates are due for completion or what kind of quality to expect from certain contractors. In addition, knowing how much the housing units cost the government to construct would present potential owners with a rough estimate of how much the rents would be pegged at.

Overall, with more information, Lagosians would be better prepared to adopt the scheme. This would undoubtedly increase their confidence in the good intentions of the government to solve their housing problems.

A data-driven solution to housing

A palpable sense of dissatisfaction accompanied the application stages and during the process of allocating homes to beneficiaries. Mobolaji Adedamola Akerele, in a post on the Lagos HOMS Facebook page, lamented that the Rent-to-Own scheme may actually be construed as “an organized scam” and then advised “fellow Lagosians” to “stay clear of this scheme. It’s wasted funds.” Another commenter, Fola King, described the process as “looking more like a fraud.” On other platforms, people have grumbled about the absence of transparency and credibility in the scheme.

It is possible to appreciate the Lagos State government’s foresight and innovative approach towards its housing challenges and still conclude that the scheme has become a white elephant, another funnel designed to siphon public funds. The project will likely not make as much impact or leave the great legacy that the Lateef Jakande low-cost estates provided, not only because of the apparently confusing policies behind their siting but, more so, because of the opaqueness that characterises everything about it.

In an era where digitally-aware and datasavvy citizens are becoming public watchdogs, it is easy for the government to appear corrupt when citizens cannot directly trace the reasons behind actions that are meant to serve as value for their hard-earned taxes. Citizens have seen projects, such as the HOMS, and they unconsciously begin to ask questions; and when they see no rationale behind them, they immediately draw negative conclusions. As elsewhere, the Lagos State government needs to provide responses to their questions or face the well-known ignominy of losing their trust. With elections on the horizon, the latter is unlikely to be an option the current administration would be willing to take.

Otherwise, the kind of response being proposed is clear: the facts and figures about government projects, such as Lagos HOMS and Rent-to-Own, presented to the public in an open, proactive and consistent fashion.

So when we think about Lagos, a new image would come to mind: a true home for all where everyone gets access to the basic human needs: shelter, food and clothing without the fear of homelessness, without disenchanted lives and hurrying spirits.

So that we can all, as much as we desire, be delighted by the arresting entertainment industry, the friendliness of the irresistible hospitality and the freshness of the calm inviting beach.

It would still be the Lagos I was born in, the Lagos I grew up in and the Lagos I love – just only better.