Nigeria’s suicidal COP26 2060 Net Zero Emissions commitment

How prepared and how realistic a target?

Abubakar A. NuhuKoko, a researcher in petroleum policy and economics, is founder and pioneer executive director, The Shehu Shagari World Institute for Leadership and Good Governance, Sokoto, Nigeria. He can be reached on +234 706 330 6887 or aanukoko4000@ gmail.com

THE UNITED NA TIONS 26TH Conference of Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that took place in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom (UK) from Sunday, October 31st, 2021 ended on Saturday, November 13th, 2021; bringing the overrun two weeks of intense negotiations to a conclusion.

There is no doubt that we are living in a time of unprecedented changes and challenges that are local, regional, national and global in all socio-economic spheres. For instance, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that initially started as an epidemic in Wuhan, China, is still not fully understood and controlled across the globe.

There are also geopolitical tensions and crises at various levels worldwide. Even the great technological changes ushered by the Information and Communication Telecommunication (ICT) technologies at the beginning of this 21st century are not without far reaching socio-economic ramifications and challenges across the globe.

However, the biggest challenge we face right now, without a doubt, is the climate crisis. The global community, together, needs to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels before or by the year 2030! The science is clear now more than before. This was the conversation that took the center stage at the just concluded Glasgow COP26 to address climate change and its current and future ramifications.

Nigeria, like the other 200 countries that either participated and or represented (big polluters China, Russia and Brazil were not in Glasgow) at the venue of the summit, made an outstanding outing, in the views of many analysts. For instance, Nigeria’s major contribution to the summit was its pledge of becoming Net Zero Emissions compliant by the year 2060; and not 2030 under the 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21) and not 2070 as pledged by India.

The big issue regarding Nigeria’s 2060 new pledges or goals is whether this new intended target date is achievable and sustainable, given the many crucial socio-economic development challenges facing the country, particularly in its energy sector?

President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) led the Nigerian delegation to the Glasgow summit and made three presentations - one at the main conference and two during side-events. All three presentations are wellcrafted and were delivered by PMB himself. Although the contents of the three presentations seem to differ slightly from the revised or updated intentionally Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted to the COP26 Secretariat earlier in July 2021, they are bold, far-reaching and ambitious, especially coming from a leading crude oil (fossil energy) producing and exporting developing country from Africa. Hence, Nigeria is at a cross-road of international climate change policy. This makes it very worrisome indeed. But why?

First, it is a known fact that Nigeria is a Petro State or fossil energy (crude oil and natural gas) dependent nation. Crude oil exports account for over 80% of its exports earnings and over 60% of its budgetary revenues since crude oil was discovered in 1956 and commercially exported since 1958. Juxtaposing this state of affairs with the remark made by the United Nations Secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, at the COP26 summit that: “Climate pledges are hollow unless fossil fuel ends” and slamming world leaders for “not doing enough” to tackle climate change! He also remarked that time is running out and the 1.5C goal is on “life support”!

Secondly, for the first time since the 1994 Kyoto Protocol, fossil energy has been officially identified as the major contributor to climate change and greenhouse gas emissions! Therefore, the question before Nigeria, both at the national and international levels is: Can Nigeria afford to come on the same page with the rest of the world on phasing out fossil fuels on the global climate change agenda?

Thirdly, how prepared is Nigeria in fulfilling its 2060 pledge for a 100% Net –Zero decarbonization; given the fact that it has almost nothing to show institutionally, structurally and funds wise to jump start this herculean energy transition of the century? These questions are pertinent because none of the pledges and the submitted INDCs were opened for public discussion before they were submitted. Furthermore, not even the National Assembly debated these far-reaching “suicidal” international commitments to the best of my knowledge (I stand to be corrected on this).

Institutionally and structurally, Climate Change Policy in Nigeria has a very weak foundation to start with. For instance, Nigeria ratified the Kyoto Protocol it signed in 1994 only in 2004. The Climate Change Response Policy and Strategy was crafted and approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) in September 2012. Nigeria’s Intentionally Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) to Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation was approved by PMB on November 26, 2015 prior to the Paris COP21 and was updated in July 2021 prior to the Glasgow COP26 summit.

However, the Nigerian general public, including the media, the National Assembly and subnational governments, are not conversant and or familiar with the policies and measures included in these documents generally. Furthermore, the objectives and timeframes for achieving them contained in these policies and measures, more often than not, are yet to be achieved by the target periods. Yet, Nigeria is making fresh pledges and setting an ambitious timeframe for achieving them.

For instance, the existing Climate Policy Response and Strategy (2012) has a strategic goal of “fostering low-carbon, high growth economic development and build a climate resilient society through the attainment of the following objectives:

Implement mitigation measures that will promote low carbon as well as sustainable and high economic growth.

This is in direct conflict with Nigeria’s drive to increase its proven crude oil reserves currently estimated at 37.07 billion barrels to 40 billion barrels in the next few years. Nigeria is ranked as the 10th nation with largest oil reserves (2017) after the troubled Libya. Nigeria is presently the home to the world’s largest crude oil refinery, the 650,000 barrels per day $16 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery Ltd. Oil revenues are the major sources propelling high economic growth and constitute about 14 % of the national economy (GDP).

Enhance national capacity to adapt to climate change.

This is also very problematic as the country has been facing numerous climate-induced natural disasters such as annual flooding, rapid deforestation, desertification and droughts.

Raise climate change related science, technology and R&D to a new level that will enable the country to better participate in international scientific and technological cooperation on climate change.

There is no concrete evidence on ground to show that this is happening. For instance, none of the relevant ministries, departments and agencies of the federal government is doing any scientific, technological research, development and innovation on climate change and related phenomena. Not even the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) that is the highest institutional establishment for policy and research on energy matters in all ramification has a Department, Unit and or a Centre dedicated to Climate Change R&D. The same can be said of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation; the Ministry for Environment; Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the Ministry of Power.

Significantly increase public awareness and involve private sector participation in addressing the challenges of climate change.

There are no concerted efforts in this direction also.

Climate change discussion comes up only when natural disas