West Africa projected to grow by 2.9% in 2019 - UN
… growth to be driven by Nigeria’s growth forecast of 2.1%
According to a report released by the United Nations titled “Socioeconomic Trends in West Africa in 2019,” the West African sub region is expected to grow by 2.9 percent by the end of 2019, which would be driven by Nigeria’s growth forecast of 2.1 percent.
The report envisaged that West African economies would perform better this year, and further noted that economic improvement in the region would be triggered by Nigeria stronger economic performance, as the share of Africa’s most populous nation in regional output is about 75 percent.
The debt profile of West African nations has been rising overtime, with majority having a high debtTO-GDP ratio close to 69.8 percent, 19.8 percent higher than the 50 percent benchmark of the International Monetary Fund, the report noted, which upheld the disclosure of the Debt Management Office (DMO) a week ago that Nigeria’s public debt stock jumped slightly by 0.22 percent to N22.43 trillion in Q3 2018 from N22.38 trillion a quarter earlier.
The United Nations projected a rebound in all sectors in the region, except building and construction and services sector, adding that with consistency in government policies in member of states and attractive business environment, regional growth might head towards 4 per- cent in subsequent years.
The realisation of Sustainable Development Goals in the region is threatened by paucity of local and foreign investment flows, which is much lower compared to the Northern and Southern regions of Africa, adding that full regional integration, which involves free movement of people and commodities, is marred by insecurity, however, the report noted that the international agency in collaboration with ECOWAS and other specialised agencies are working hard to create an action plan to tackle the menace.
Asked about the viability of 2.1 and 2.9 percent growth forecast in Nigeria and West Africa, a Lagosbased economist who pleaded anonymity told Businessday that the target of 2.1 percent for Nigeria will basically be determined by oil prices.
“We all know the importance of Nigeria in WestAfrica, if OPEC supply cut policy can possibly raise oil price between $60 - $70 per barrel, the country will definitely record stronger performance, and 2.9 percent growth in the region looks achievable,” he said.
Earlier this week, Nigeria’s Economic Consultative Association (NECA) tagged the assumptions of the 2019 proposed budget, which include achieving a GDP growth rate of 3.01 percent as illusory , claiming that political dynamics in the Middle East might cut oil price, thereby thwarting the proposed budget.