Donald Trump has become entrapped by his phantom wall
The re-election battle is creeping up while the president’s power to honour his pledge slips away
Americans are embarking on the longest year of their lives, which will last until the presidential elections in November 2020. It is anybody’s guess at what point Donald Trump will agree to reopen the US federal government. But it is a sure bet Congress will not give him serious money to build a Mexico border wall. This presents Mr Trump with a dilemma, which will intensify as his re-election bid looms. It is doubtful his political career would have taken off had he not vowed to build a wall, yet he will be increasingly powerless to honour that promise.
Over the next 20 months, Mr Trump must therefore continue finding ways to blame Democrats for thwarting the will of the American people. In so doing, he will act out his version of Winston Churchill’s definition of a fanatic — “someone who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject”. As a hostage to fortune of his own making, Mr Trump’s only hope of avoiding humiliation is to take US politics hostage.
Steve Bannon, his former chief strategist, often says that Mr Trump has zero chance of being re-elected if he fails to build that wall. In practice, Mr Trump could still win without it. Two compulsions will ensure he stays on the subject between now and then. The first is a lack of anything better to talk about. In terms of Mr Trump’s domestic agenda, the Mexico wall is basically all that is left. The only big steps he has taken are signing the $1.5tn tax cut in late 2017, and appointing two conservatives to the Supreme Court. Any Republican president would have done the same.
To be fair to Mr Trump, he also vowed to protect the forgotten American and enact a big infrastructure splurge. This marked him out from more establishment Republicans. However, both merge in Mr Trump’s mind to make a barrier with Mexico. The point of his wall is to protect forgotten Americans from the invasion of Hispanic caravans, heroin smugglers and criminal gangs. Moreover, it would be the grandest infrastructure project since the Great Wall of China. Now that Mr Trump has conceded it could be made out of steel, not concrete, it would also single-handedly revive the US steel industry. The more Mr Trump dwells on it, the larger the wall looms.
The same applies to his electoral base. As a campaign mantra, Mr Trump’s “big beautiful wall” was pure gold. It symbolised fear of outsiders and the promise of blue collar work. Nobody could forget such a tangible promise. As a re-election strategy, it leaves something to be desired. If Mr Trump was unable to build a wall during his first two years when Republicans controlled all branches of government, why did he try to do something only after power had shifted to the Democrats?
The answer is simple. Mr Trump never intended the wall as anything more than a slogan. The manufactured crisis on the US border stopped the moment Mr Trump was elected in November 2016. It only resumed in the weeks leading up to the 2018 midterm elections. Border crises are a way of whipping up fear and outrage. They only manifest themselves when Democrats are in office.
Second, Mr Trump knows only how to appeal to his base. When he tries to pivot to the centre, the conservative right slaps him back into line. Just four days before the government shutdown began in late December, Mr Trump agreed to a bill that would keep the US government open. It did not include any funding for the wall. He was pilloried as a “sellout” by the nativist wing of the Republican party. Mr Trump immediately changed tack. Four days later the government closed.
With 89 per cent approval among Republican voters, Mr Trump can easily fend off an establishment challenger for his party’s nomination. He can also keep most Republican lawmakers in line. But that strength is also his greatest weakness. It stops him from doing the kinds of things that would improve his chances of winning a second term. So he is stuck with a phantom wall.
It is possible that in the coming days Mr Trump will declare a national emergency and divert military funds to the border. At that point, his wall obsession would turn into a constitutional crisis. Given Mr Trump’s inner compulsions, that spectre is only likely to grow.