To grow Nigeria’s economy at 7-8% a year does not need a miracle

At his inauguration four years ago at the Eagle Square in Abuja, President Muhammadu Buhari said, “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody.” Insecurity, unemployment and a weak

economy are three intertwined problems facing every Nigerian he will swear again to serve today.

The President is unconvinced that the solution lies with private sector investments in farms, rails, roads and power. He doesn’t hide his distaste for private businesses. But the government cannot borrow its way out of these grave problems, even with a debt profile that has ballooned to N24 trillion.

Some of his aides are quick to say the problems were caused by a profligate predecessor. Of late, the stumbling block has been the past Senate President. We think the root of the problem lies closer: President Buhari prefers to abdicate responsibility to a few trusted advisers who have masterfully kept him in Potemkin village. Insular and aloof from the public, the President

belongs to a few Nigerians.

Voting for Buhari was a tough choice in 2015. Nigerians were caught between a hapless incumbent and a self-declared reformed democrat. Cast as a nononsense ex-general and corruption buster, the former general’s austere and disciplined lifestyle was sold as the solution to the insecurity and corruption that continually plague Nigeria. It convinced sceptical voters to take a chance on him after three attempts at being democratically elected as president.

Four years ago, Nigerians took a chance for a change. If it changed anything at all, it was the idea that a democratic transition, change at the top through the ballot box, was possible. Expectations were high. Sadly, other than the possibility of democratic alternation, that chance was squandered. In hindsight, the gain Nigerian stocks made, the most in the world on April 1, 2015, feels like an April Fools’ Day joke. The expectations that underpinned that bounce have waned.

A growing economy that generated no jobs was one of several reasons former President Goodluck Jonathan lost the election in 2015. Under Buhari, the economy has slowed down, generated no jobs, made millions poorer and risks leaving an equal number without the capacity to read and write.

Mr President and his triumvirate will probably shrug and say his character and voters’ desire for continuity won him a second term. They possibly take comfort that few of the President’s staunchest supporters didn’t vote based on expectations of a better economy or help for the poor.

According to a poll con

ducted before the elections by NOI Poll on behalf of ANAP Foundation, continuity, integrity and security were the top three reasons given for supporting Buhari.

Expectations about the economy under President Buhari began to drop after it took him months to choose his ministers, and fell further due to his rigid stance on the foreign exchange. With 91 million people living in extreme poverty, the Nigerian economy was failing more citizens faster than India’s, a country with five times more people.

Four final more years and it’s hard to expect any major reforms from the President.

Still, we at Businessday will keep making the case for the potentials and benefits of a private sector-led economic recovery. For the next three days, beginning today, we will draw attention to sectors of the economy, their challenges and what it will take to fix them. All it will take are steps that build confidence, encourage new investments that will grow the economy and generate jobs.

The pace at which the economy is travelling suggests Nigeria will arrive late and unprepared to a future where a large and highly-skilled population is an advantage. It would be big mistake if the President thinks only his will

and character can steer Nigeria back on track.

Some things have to stop. Stop interfering excessively in the economy. Stop wayward regulators and ministers from acting like bouncers behaving badly, bullying party guests they are hired to protect. Stop thinking your advisers don’t have vested interests they will pursue at the risk of ruining the entire country.

It would be a disaster to be remembered as the leader who each time he ruled Nigeria left the country poorer, and given the millions of poor uneducated and unemployed youths, will probably leave it more insecure.