Bolsonaro’s foe rises as unlikely ally in final pension reform push House speaker Rodrigo Maia has helped rally majority for bill in fragmented congress

On a drizzly day in Manhattan last spring, Rodrigo Maia’s mood was as gloomy as the weather. The speaker of Brazil’s lower house of congress was carrying a presentation showing that his country’s pension spending would balloon to 17 per cent of gross domestic product in the next four decades. Without reform of the country’s pension system this year “we’ll enter a social collapse”, he told the Financial Times on his way to a lunch with investors.

Luckily for Latin America’s largest economy, the lawmaker from Rio has emerged as the man of the hour and a reluctant ally of rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro by whipping a majority of votes for a pensions reform bill to pass a crucial hurdle this month. On July 10, the lower house of Brazil’s fragmented parliament approved it in a first-round vote by a large margin — 379 to 131.

Over 20 years in the planning, the pensions overhaul, which is key to shoring up public finances

and restoring confidence in Brazil’s sluggish economy, is now closer than ever before to being approved.

Mr Maia has been propelled into the spotlight since Mr Bolsonaro, a former backbench lawmaker, reached the presidency in January. The six-term congressman does not share the president’s ultra-conservative beliefs but he does agree with the need for economic reform, helping rally support for government legislation.

Now, Mr Maia must make sure the pensions bill sails through the lower house again in its second and final vote next week, otherwise, “what has already matured could rot”, before heading to two votes in the Senate for its final approval.

“Imagine, if the reform does not pass, we’ll walk to a recession,” Mr Maia said.

Mr Maia, 49, is a member of the centre-right Democratas party and hails from one of the best-known political families of Brazil. He was born in Santiago, Chile, where his father, César, a former militant of the communist party, was in exile during Brazil’s military dictatorship. Returning from exile, his father served as a three-term mayor of Rio.

In 1998, after unfinished studies in economics and a stint as banker, he was elected to congress aged 28. An uncharismatic figure, he failed to succeed his father as Rio mayor seven years ago, winning less than 3 per cent of the votes.

Mr Maia was elected house speaker after the congressional impeachment of former leftist president Dilma Rousseff in 2016. Under Mr Bolsonaro, the congressman rose in prominence, pushing through economic reforms and acting as a parapet against the president’s culture-wars agenda and shoot-fromthe-hip approach to policymaking by haranguing foes.

For once in Brazil’s three-decadelong democratic history, “parliament will be the fireman and not the arsonist” of the Brazilian political scene, Mr Maia said.

However, the congressman has not shied away from criticising the scandal-prone government, calling it a “crisis factory” where Mr Bolsonaro’s fixation on identity politics “hampers” economic reforms.