Can a no-deal Brexit be prevented by the UK’S parliament?
Even if Boris Johnson loses a confidence vote he plans to delay an election until after EU departure
After less than a month in office Boris Johnson’s nascent government is squaring up for a no-confidence vote, attempts to halt Brexit and possibly a general election. When parliament returns from its summer recess on September 3, pro-remain MPS are all but certain to hold a no-confidence vote to try and bring down the government in an effort to stop the UK leaving the EU without a deal.
But the prime minister and his advisers — led by Dominic Cummings — believe that the threat to their Brexit plan is surmountable. If the government falls, Mr Johnson intends to stand firm, hang on in office and delay an election until after October 31, when the UK will automatically leave the EU. Will their plan work?
Can the Johnson government survive a no-confidence vote?
It is uncertain. After losing the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election last week, the Conservative party has a working majority of just one. It may soon be reduced further: Phillip Lee, one of the few Tory MPS campaigning for a second referendum, is rumoured to be on the verge of defecting to the Liberal Democrats, which would leave the government without its majority.
There are also several pro-remain Conservative MPS — led by former attorney-general Dominic Grieve — who have hinted they would abstain or vote against the government to halt a no-deal Brexit. This may just be rhetoric — voting against their own party and government is likely to lead to deselection and the end of their political careers. But many see the threat posed by leaving without a deal as greater than fears over their own futures.
If the government fell, would Mr Johnson resign as PM?
Under Britain’s informal constitution, losing a confidence vote means that the prime minister should resign. But this is only a convention — and it appears to be one that Mr Johnson’s team is happy to ignore. Downing Street officials have said it is “laughable” to think that the prime minister would stand aside if MPS vote down the government.
Catherine Haddon, a senior fellow at the institute for Government thinktank, says that “political pressure might be the only weapon” MPS have to immediately push out Mr Johnson. “The wording of the current law does not automatically force a prime minister to resign in the aftermath of a no-confidence vote. It is possible for him to stay in post and choose the general election that follows.”
After losing the confidence of the Commons, a 14 day cooling off period follows in which an alternative government could emerge. This is when Mr Grieve and his allies hope to form a “government of national unity”, comprising of MPS from multiple parties who want to avoid leaving the EU without a deal.
Who would decide the timing of a general election?
If an alternative government is not formed, Britain will head to the polls. An election would have to be called within 25 days after the expiry of the cooling off period. The exact date of the poll is chosen by the incumbent prime minister. The timing is formally decided by the Queen, but comes on the advice of her government.