Curbing the covid-19 comeback in Europe

Young people are flouting the rules

HE WAVES of an epidemic tend to rise like a tsunami— slowly, almost surreptitiously, before a precipitous surge. In parts of Europe there are now fears that covid-19 cases may again be nearing a menacing inflection point. In Spain, daily new cases in the week to July 28th have risen sharply to nearly ten times the low they had descended to in June, when the lockdown was lifted. Less dramatic but worrying increases in cases are starting to bubble up in other European countries.

For the moment, the spikes in Europe are largely confined to a few hotspot countries, regions within them or even towns. Infection rates are particularly high in the Balkans

Tand in Spain, which has notched up about 27 cases per 100,000 people in the past week. The corresponding case rate in Germany, France and Italy is in the single digits. In both low- and high-rate countries, the bulk of new cases is often concentrated in particular locations. Roughly two-thirds of Spain’s cases in the past week are from just two regions, Catalonia and Aragon, which are home to a fifth of Spaniards. About 20% of Italy’s cases in the same period are in the Emilia-romagna region, which has just 7% of the population.

The rise in cases across Europe is not surprising, says Hans Kluge of the World Health Organisation. As lockdowns were lifted and people resumed travel and mingling, both imported cases and the local spread of the virus have pushed tallies up. What is different now is that testing and tracing systems are catching local spikes early, and authorities are battling them with localised