Prospects for Agenda 2050
Without much fanfare and drums, the federal government recently launched the Nigeria Agenda 2050 programme in Abuja. Agenda 2050 is a long-term perspective plan that aims to reposition our country as one of the leading nations of the 21st century within the next 3 decades. It will be implemented within a framework of five- year Medium-term National Development Plans (MNDPS). Several Technical Working Groups (TWGS) have been created. They range from the Macroeconomics Modelling Group to the International Relations and External Trade Group, of which yours sincerely is a member.
Agenda 2050 is a successor to the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) which expires this year ending. The ERGP came at the wake of one of the worst recessions in living memory. The Apc-led administration was caught totally ill-prepared when global prices collapsed in 2015. And because they were not equipped to govern, they had no economic programme and no development strategy. Even the ERGP was something that was kind of foisted upon them.
It was not a truly home-grown solution as many would suppose. I was a bit taken aback when the young men from a prestigious global consulting firm were the key people driving the project. Some of them could have been my students when I was a business school Associate Professor in London in the nineties. They also added insult to injury by bringing another expert all the way from Malaysia to assist with the implementation framework. The man, to my knowledge, had virtually no understanding of the dynamics and peculiarities of the Nigerian political economy.
Agenda 2050 is coming at a time when our country is more divided than ever. Trust is at a deficit. Most Nigerians do not trust this government and their intentions.
The rumoured $ 1.9 billion rail project to Niger Republic, for example, has outraged Nigerians groaning under the weight of poverty, hunger and higher petrol and electricity prices. To borrow money from the Chinese under commercial rates to construct a rail line leading to another man’s country, for which Nigerians yet unborn will have to pay is not only wicked and unconscionable; it is treasonable.
My humble reading of world economic history teaches me that the greatest leaps in social and economic progress are made when nations develop a sense of collective purpose and destiny. I fear that this government, whatever they come up with, is unlikely to win the minds and hearts of most Nigerians simply because of the trust deficit.
Nigeria jettisoned economic development planning in the eighties, when the IBB military junta were persuaded to pursue neoliberal “structural adjustment programmes”. Strictly speaking, programmes such as Vision 2020 covering the years 2010- 2020 and the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) were largely “rolling plans” rather than economic development plans as technically understood. According to a recent survey by the World Bank, in 2019, some 143 countries went back to the tradition of economic development planning as compared to 32 in the year 2000. It seems clear that the pendulum is swinging back from neoliberal free market strategies of macroeconomic development policy management to more interventionist planning paradigms.
Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 is still in the early stages. But there are important lessons that must be imbibed.
First, a clear vision is imperative. It is said that, without vision, the people perish. We must evolve a clear and well-articulated vision of what our country will be 3 decades down the road. And that vision must be national in outlook and must be one that is shared by the national elites as well as the generality of the populace. For my part, we need a vision of Nigeria of the year 2050 to be that of a firstrate industrial-technological nation that is also a prosperous democracy and one of the leading nations of the 21st century. We want a country that is progressive and free and that nurtures the creativity and energy of its peoples in an atmosphere that respects human rights, the rule of law while guaranteeing equal opportunities for all.
Setting a clear vision, with realistic targets is among the most important factors for the success of Agenda 2050. I envision an economy with a GDP of $2 trillion and an average per capita income of about $18,000. This would place us in GDP terms at about the same size Italy is today. By 2050, Nigeria would be the third most populous nation on earth, at 410 million. In terms of GDP ranking, we should aim to be at least within the top 15 globally.
Nigeria has not been short on ideas and plans. The devil, as they say, has always been on the nittygritty of implementation. We must therefore put in place an effective implementation strategy with a clear understanding of ownership, monitorable targets, a system for monitoring and evaluation; accountability for results; adaptability in the face of unexpected contingencies; and an effective communication framework to get all stakeholders on board.
Linked to implementation is the imperative of designing a credible and effective financing framework. We need all plans to be reduced to bankable projects – projects for speed trains, harbours, ports, new cities, highways, airports and power stations. We must plan rigorously on how to mobilise capital both internally and externally to finance our ambitious projects.
Development partnerships will also have to be framed between government and the organised private sector, civil-society, NGOS, women and youth groups and other key stakeholders, including foreign development agencies that share our vision.
Lastly, we need to benchmark ourselves against some economically successful countries for the purpose of collective learning. No country is perfect and no country has it all. But we can learn from the achievements of others in certain crucial sectors. The countries I have in mind for benchmarking purposes are: Germany, South Korea, UAE, Singapore and Brazil.
First, a clear vision is imperative. It is said that, without vision, the people perish. We must evolve a clear and wellarticulated vision of what our country will be 3 decades down the road
Dr. Mailafia is a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, a development economist and public finance expert with a Dphil from Oxford obmailafia@gmail.com; 08036590990 (text messages only)