Market analysts say Brazil will win sixth World Cup in Qatar

Brazil are tipped to claim the FIFA World Cup for the sixth time in the tournament which kicks off on Nov. 20 in Qatar.

This is according to a Reuters poll which last successfully predicted the champions in 2010.

The global survey of 135 football-following market analysts worldwide agreed with the bookmakers that Brazil would triumph for the first time since 2002.

Almost half of respondents expected Brazil to win while 30 percent were evenly split between France and Argentina.

Germany, England and Belgium scored in high single digits.

“Brazil have a big chance this time with the depth and variation in their attack, coupled with experience of Casemiro (midfield) and Thiago Silva at the back,” said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital in Mumbai.

Brazilian talent was prominent in the poll results.

Thus is with the likes of Neymar and Vinicius Jr, who have boasted brilliant starts to the club season, coupled with goalkeeping duo Alisson and Ederson shining as well.

“We assign a probability of 17 percent to Brazil winning the tournament, which translates into odds of 5-1,” wrote Peter Dixon, head of EMEA country risk at Fitch Solutions in London.

Dixon put Germany second at 11 percent (8-1) and France third at eight percent (11-1).

His calculations differ from bookmakers odds, which have England as third favourite compared to Dixon’s four percent chance.

This is largely because bookies’ odds are calculated based on how much they would need to pay out, not probabilities.

Forecasters in previous years also used quant models, while others used simpler methods such as guesswork and superstition.

EA Sports said Argentina would lift the trophy.

They are the creators of the FIFA gaming franchise and which has correctly predicted winners of the previous three World Cups by simulating all 64 matches on their game.

Argentina, undefeated since losing to Brazil in July 2019, are closing in on Italy’s record of the longest unbeaten streak for any team in international football.

Almost 50 percent of responses came from Europe, followed by North America and Asia with around 15 percent each.