UK economy to suffer biggest hit from energy crisis in G7 – OECD

THE uk economy will contract more than any of the world’s seven most advanced nations next year as Britain suffers from painful inflation exacerbated by worker shortages and “untargeted” energy support, according to a report.

The latest forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reveal a sharp downgrade for the uk economy, which is expected to shrink by 0.4 per cent in 2023 and grow by just 0.2 per cent in 2024.

it had predicted in september that uk growth would flatline in 2023.

Germany is the only other G7 country set to see a contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year, with a 0.3 per cent drop, according to the report.

italy will see only paltry growth of 0.2 per cent, while the united states will eke out 0.5 per cent expansion, with GDP set to rise by 0.6 per cent in France and one per cent in Canada and 1.8 per cent in Japan.

The uk is also the third worst-performing nation of all the G20 advanced countries worldwide, with only Russia and sweden seeing a bigger decline in GDP, at 5.6 per cent and 0.6 per cent.

When compared with the average of all the world economies, the uk’s performance is set to trail behind the 2.2 per cent in global growth predicted for next year, but this is still a sharp slowdown on the 3.1 per cent expected in 2022 due to the energy crisis and trading sanctions sparked by Russia’s war on ukraine.

The OECD also took aim at the uk government’s support efforts to cap energy bills at around £2,500 until april, saying it will push up inflation and mean households and businesses will be hit by higher interest rates as a result as policymakers look to rein in price and wage rises.

it said: “The untargeted Energy Price Guarantee announced in september 2022 by the Government will increase pressure on already high inflation in the short term, requiring monetary policy to tighten more and raising debt service costs.”

“Better targeting of measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices would lower the budgetary cost, better-preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation.”

The gloomy picture for the uk comes after the official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), last week warned Britain’s economy will shrink by 2 per cent in total over a lengthy recession that started in the third quarter.

it downgraded previous projections that the economy would actually grow by 1.8 per cent in 2023 to a fall of 1.4 per cent for the year.

The OECD said uk inflation – which hit a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October – will likely peak at the end of this year and remain above 9 per cent into early 2023, before slowing to 4.5 per cent by next year-end and to 2.7 per cent by the end of 2024. (dpa/nan)