The Battle of the States

By Muideen Olaniyi, Abuja; Nurudeen Oyewole, Lagos; Ismail Mudashir, Kano; Itodo Daniel Sule, Jalingo; Hir Joseph, Lafia; Onimisi Alao, Jos; Abdullateef Aliyu, Ilorin; Hamza Idris, Maiduguri; Garba Muhammad, Birnin Kebbi; Hope Abah, Makurdi; Tony Adibe, Enugu; Kabiru R. Anwar, Yola; Adamu Saleh, Gombe; Habibu Umar Aminu, Katsina; Hamisu Kabir Matazu; Eyo Charles, Calabar; Patrick Odey, Uyo; Ahmed Mohammed, Bauchi; Aliyu M. Hamagam, Minna; Kehinde Akinyemi, Abeokuta; Misbahu Bashir, Kaduna; Victor Edozie, Port Harcourt and Rakiya A. Muhammad, Sokoto

The governorship candidates of the major political parties are squaring up for the battle of the states on April 11, 2015. Except in few states, the contest is expected to be fierce between the newly elected governing party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has been leading the government since 1999.

In view of the outcome of the presidential elections which saw retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari of the APC emerging winner in an election contested by 14 candidates, including the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, we have decided to look at the likely “Winners and Losers” at the forthcoming Governorship Election in 29 states of the federation.

LAGOS: A DING-DONG BATTLE OF WILLS

The Lagos State gubernatorial election is already throwing up signs of a close contest between the two main political parties- the PDP and the APC.

Political pundits who have been keen on the development in the state are finding it difficult to place a bet on any of the candidates, Mr Jimi Agbaje, the PDP gubernatorial candidate and Mr Akinwunmi Ambode of the APC. Indeed, the two candidates, through their campaigns, have thrown up a number of issues, many of which might eventually become the determining factors on who either wins or loses.

Before the election, both Agbaje and Ambode made it a habit to campaign vigorously for their respective parties’ presidential candidates. During Ambode’s political campaigns across the 20 local governments in the state, his campaign and those of his party leaders, including a former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the current Governor, Babatunde Fashola, the slogan had always been: “Vote Buhari, vote Ambode”. While looking at the state incumbency machinery that has been deployed in mobilizing supporters and Lagosians alike, not a few disagree that the victory of Gen. Buhari might positively affect the chances of Ambode.

Agbaje has also not done badly in this regard. Against all odds and the perceived lethargy that first rocked his efforts at selling the candidacy of Mr President at the early stage of the campaign, Agbaje, backed with funds from the supporters of President Jonathan, succeeded in using “Vote Jonathan, vote Agbaje” to win the hearts of many people from the South South and South East living in Lagos. But this political calculation may change since President Jonathan has lost his election to the APC candidate.

KANO: BUHARI’S VICTORY WEIGHS DOWN TAKAI, RAISES GANDUJE

Out of all the 22 candidates contesting the seat of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Mallam Sagir Saliu Takai are viewed as the most likely occupiers of the Kano Government House on May 29.

However, the victory of General Buhari during penultimate Saturday’s presidential election seems to have cleared the coast for the governorship candidate of the APC, Dr. Ganduje.

The magic wands of Buhari’s “APC Sak” as well as the performance of Kwankwaso are working in favour of Ganduje, who has been around the corridors of power for three decades.

But Takai, who was defeated by Kwankwaso in the 2011 elections, is riding on the political structure of his god father, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau.

The former commissioner in Shekarau administration is regarded as a grassroots politician who cannot be easily pushed aside.

TARABA: A SWING THAT FAVOURS PDP

In Taraba State, three major governorship candidates - Architect Darius Ishaku of the PDP, Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan of the APC and Chief David Sabo Kente of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) - are considered as serious contenders running for the number one seat. Although, there is also Barrister Kabiru Dodo of the PDM, he appears not to