Liberia on the brink of history again
The result of the first round of the recent Liberian presidential election has set the stage for what many observers have described as that nation’s most challenging choice of leadership in its history. The outcome of the poll has left George Weah the former world soccer star with what appears to be the unassailable advantage of a near tenpercent lead over Vice President Joseph Nyuma Boakai. However this result has been attributed not merely to Weah’s glamorous image and attraction for young voters but also to his alliance with elements of the imprisoned former warlord Charles Taylor’s supporters, This aspect of the Liberian exercise has taken many political analysts in the West African sub-region and beyond by surprise, because while the popularity of the former soccer star is not in doubt his alliance with the remnants of a movement that brought war and devastation to Africa’s oldest republic for more than two decades was unexpected. The demographic profile of Liberia contains a major youth bulge in which nearly 80% of the electorate is under fifty years of age and about 65% of that bulge is estimated to be between 18 and 40 years of age. As a consequence many of those on whom the eventual result will rely are young people who, many observers say, may very well make decisions based on sentiment rather than on careful and reasoned concern.
During the Liberian civil war Weah, who was playing professional soccer in Europe, symbolised Liberia’s potential for a more positive role in the world than it had become noted for. He singlehandedly funded and administered the national team and kept it alive and participating in continental competition against all odds. This action is at the root of the popular perception of his patriotism and adherence to the legitimacy of the state that translated into support for his political ambition after the hostilities were eventually brought to an end by the intervention of Liberia’s regional neighbours in the early years of the new century. At that time it was widely assumed that Weah had shown no inclination to join forces with any of the groups that had promoted insurgency and rebellion in his homeland. However his recent decision to adopt Charles Taylor’s ex-wife Jewel, who is leading the party that morphed out of the most notorious armed group the National Patriotic Front for Liberation (NPFL), as his running mate for this election has changed that perception of his political agenda.
Mrs. Jewel Taylor is not only an articulate and attractive candidate but in the early days of the campaign she did not hide the fact that a central objective of her strategy was to revive the acceptability of her former spouse’s aborted purpose in government. In recent weeks, since the outcome of the first installment of the election has left the ticket of Weah and herself in the lead, she has modified her advocacy of this restorative element of her political agenda and is now touting a much less assertive thrust. In a recent appearance on a Nigerian TV station she presented the Weah agenda as being much more conciliatory and accepting of the sub-regional agenda for renewal in Liberia than her party the NPP has usually been noted for. Several Liberian observers have however claimed that the resource base of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC), Weah’s party, has actually been infiltrated by key operatives from the defunct NPFL hierarchy.
The consequence of this covert takeover of the Weah agenda by the Taylor group is the most controversial issue confronting Joseph Boakai’s Unity Party, on whose ticket the incumbent Mrs. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf rode to power for two terms, in the forthcoming second round of voting. Instead of building a consensus of support for the continuity that the Vice President is supposed to represent the Unity Party’s strategy appears to have left a substantial proportion of the Liberian electorate seeking fundamental change. This has been described in many Liberian commentaries on the outcome of the first round of voting as being responsible for the Weah advantage. Vice President Joseph Boakai’s most vocal supporters insist that his advantage over George Weah should be the record of patient loyalty that he displayed towards Mrs. Johnson Sirleaf in office over the last twelve years. However in spite of the fact that Mrs. Johnson Sirleaf has never denied support for her Vice President’s aspirations she has maintained a public stance of neutrality that has led many observers to assert that she was not giving him full backing.
Many analysts have published commentaries in the Liberian media and on the internet attributing various motivations for this perception to her. Some However his recent decision to adopt Charles Taylor’s ex-wife Jewel, who is leading the party that morphed out of the most notorious armed group the National Patriotic Front for Liberation (NPFL), as his running mate for this election has changed that perception of his political agenda have claimed that she is supporting Weah because she wishes one of her sons to take over the Senate seat that the soccer star will vacate if he wins, while others suggest more complicated motives. These range from her desire to be succeeded by a leadership team that will not be able to match her own record of administrative and economic expertise, to the need to prevent her Vice President from opening scrutiny of some decisions taken in her tenure with which he is supposed to have disagreed. The Office of the President in Monrovia has now put out a fulsome statement denying these allegations but surprisingly the Unity Party is among the main accusers whose allegations they have had to refute. This is the very party on whose ticket Mrs. Johnson Sirleaf won and served two tenures in office. What most of these allegations reveal is that Liberian politics is still steeped in local rivalry and divisiveness that could undermine the stability and peace that has been achieved through the post-war installment of democratic governance in the country.
The key figures whose participation helped ensure that no one received the 50%+1 majority for outright victory in the first round are the lawyer Charles Brumskine of the Liberty Party, former warlord now Senator Prince Yormie Johnson of the MDR, and the former Coca Cola executive Alexander Cummings of the ANC. Before the vote it was widely alleged that all of these contestants would throw their weight behind the Vice President in a run-off but commentaries published since the vote have thrown doubt on this assumption. Charles Brumskine has gone to court seeking the annulment of the polls and while it was widely assumed that Prince Johnson might refuse to back a ticket that has the tacit as well as the overt support of his longtime adversaries in the NPP, post-election commentaries have suggested that this might change. Some analysts have argued that he might not wield as much control over his supporters in the re-run as before however and have indicated that any attempt by the former warlord to coerce his Nimba County loyalists to climb the Weah bandwagon could backfire. In the meantime there have been several commentaries published claiming that evidence exists that Cummings, the former Coca Cola executive, will be willing to compromise his position in return for an offer of a high profile appointment in a Weah-led administration.
In the run up to the second round of voting many members of the Liberian political leadership class consider the certified experience of Joseph Boakai as being the best, if not the only, guarantee of responsible administration for the future of their nation. In seeking to promote this view they are faced with an uphill task against populist glamour and the deployment of substantial resources by the CDC/ NPP camp. One of Mr. Taylor’s most loyal collaborators in the past was Mr. Benoni Urey the owner of the Lone Star mobile phone company, holder of the MTN concession in Liberia. He ran in the first round on the ticket of the All Liberia Party (ALP) and although his share of the vote was not substantial it is believed that he will have effective outreach capabilities in the process of mobilising voters for the second round. Urey was alleged to be one of those who would support the Weah/NPP ticket in the second round, but instead he has openly joined the Vice President’s Unity Party and Brumskine’s Liberty Party to denounce the Electoral Commission’s handling of the poll and to signal support for the Vice President. As a consequence of these assumptions and calculations Vice President Joseph Nyuma Boakai is saddled with the burden of defending West Africa’s enormous sacrifice for peace and stability against the interests and ambitions of perpetrators of division and instability in the history of his nation.