Can Jerry Gana change 2019 calculations?
As it stands, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has admitted a former Minister of Information and National Orientation, Prof. Jerry Gana to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as its presidential candidate for 2019. This followed a court verdict that sacked a former governor of Cross River State, Mr. Donald Duke, who was initially declared winner of the presidential ticket of the party.
Once the INEC endorses Prof. Gana as one of the 74 presidential candidates for the 2019 elections, the political space would most likely change. He defeated Mr. Duke at the court when he provided evidence that his party, the SDP violated its zoning arrangement when it allowed Mr. Duke, who is from the South to vie for the presidential ticket despite the fact that the national chairman of the party, Chief Olu Falae is also from the South.
On Friday, December 14, The Federal High Court in Maitama, Abuja, declared Prof. Gana as the candidate of the SDP in the 2019 elections.
In his judgement, Justice Hussein BabaYusuf held that the regulations contained in the party’s constitution were binding on every member and must be obeyed.
He held that the zoning and rotation formula as contained in the party’s constitution stipulated that both the chairman of the party and the flag-bearer should not come from the same zone.
Although Mr. Duke said he would appeal the judgement, political analysts have gone beyond that as they have started predicting the role Prof. Gana will play in re-shaping the political space ahead of 2019.
The SDP itself has already acknowledged Prof. Gana as its candidate. The party said it had received a Federal High Court judgement directing it to recognise Jerry Gana as its presidential candidate for the 2019 elections.
The party’s deputy national chairman, Abdul Isiaq, disclosed this when he received Gana, who paid a courtesy visit to the party’s national secretariat last Wednesday in Abuja.
“As a party we have received the judgement from the High Court.
“This party (SDP), as you know, is very disciplined. You will not find impunity in the process of our party. By so doing, whatever the court says is what the party will comply with,” he said.
With his emergence as SDP candidate, Prof. Gana, who is from Niger State in the North Central geopolitical zone or the Middle Belt as politicians want the area to be called, has brought in a new dimension to the power struggle.
Bringing forth what transpired in the past, Prof. Gana had wanted to be president since 2007 but could not get it.
He maintained the momentum even in the buildup to the 2019 elections when he was a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Although it is a settled matter in many political circles that the North should retain the presidency up till 2023, as evident in the decision of the leading political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP to choose President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as their candidates, the coming in of Prof. Gana will certainly elicit some new scheming.
Prof. Gana, who dumped the PDP in March, this year, left with the likes of Prof. Tunde Adeniran.
They cited irreconcilable differences with handlers of the PDP as reasons for their departure.
Besides Prof. Gana, who showed interest in the SDP ticket, Prof. Iyorwuese Hagher, who is from Benue State, had also shown interest.
However, when Duke emerged as candidate, most of the other contenders relaxed, but Gana remained resolute, insisting that the “impunity that reigned in the PDP in flouting rules must not be allowed to rear its head in the SDP.”
But beyond this, there were initial speculations that powerful leaders in the Middle Belt had directed some of their leading politicians to join the race for the Presidency under various platforms.
Those asked to showcase their popularity, according to sources, include a deputy governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Obadiah Mailafia; former Plateau State governor, Senator Jonah Jang, Senator David Mark and Mr Olawepo-Hashim, among many others.
They purportedly said the Middle Belt had a stake in Kwara, Kogi, Niger, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Benue, Plateau, Adamawa, Borno (South), Bauchi (South), Kaduna, Kebbi, Taraba, and Nasarawa; hence their indispensability in determining who wins the 2019 elections.
Although analysts believe the 2019 contest would be a straight fight between President Buhari, who is from the NorthWest and Atiku Abubakar, who is from the North-East, the two politicians would have to find a way of working with, or depleting the resourcefulness of Prof. Gana in the North- Central or Middle Belt.
Similarly, all of them would have to struggle for recognition and support in the South-West, South-South and South-East.
Prof. Gana had served as senator in 1983; then director for the Directorate of Food, Roads and Infrastructure (DFRRI).
He was the director of the Mass Mobilisation for Social Justice and Economic Recovery, popularly known as MAMSER under the military junta of Ibrahim Babangida.
Thereafter, he became the Minister of Agriculture and Natural Resources in the Interim National Government under Ernest Shonekan.
He later became Minister of Information and Culture under General Sani Abacha, then Minister of Corporation and Integration in Africa under Olusegun Obasanjo as well as Minister of Information and National Orientation. He also served as political adviser to Olusegun Obasanjo before announcing plans to run for president in June 2006.
Gana was born on November 30, 1945 at Busu, near Bida, in Niger State. He obtained the West African School Certificate from Government College, Bida in 1964, and proceeded to Okene Secondary School for the Higher School Certificate (HSC.) from 1965-1966, passing out with distinctions as the best results in 1967. Gana proceeded to Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria and graduated in 1970 with a B.A (Hons, upper division) in Geography. He then attended Kings College of the University of Aberdeen, Scotland. for a master’s degree in Rural Resources Planning, leading to a PhD in Market Place Systems and Rural Development in 1974. He obtained a Certificate of Education from the University of London and taught at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria from 1974 to 1986, rising to the post of a professor in 1985.
The director-general of the Voice of Nigeria (VON), Mr Osita Okechukwu, said the entry of Prof. Gana would not change the current political calculation.
When contacted on phone, Okechukwu said any candidate with no control over state or local government could hardly make any impact in presidential contest.
I don’t know whether his party controls any of the states. If you don’t control any state or local government, it makes your position weak.
“You might make waves in the media, but it might not gather enough mud on the ground. Don’t forget that we have about four tiers of government - from councillor to local government and state. If you don’t have any habitat at the state, local government and ward levels, I don’t know how you can infiltrate the polling units. Our election is polling unit- based. It is not a delegates system. It is people’s votes.
“If it was a delegates system, you can say that the leadership in various agencies you talk about would come in an electoral college system and give him votes. It is more difficult on the ground. If there is any group that would be harmed by his entry, I think it is the PDP, not President Buhari.”
A PDP chieftain, Jide Osanyin, said Gana’s entry could only affect the votes from the Christian population in the North Central.
“His entry can only affect votes from the North Central geopolitical zone. It can only reduce the votes of the key presidential contestants. You know that Prof. Jerry Gana is a Christian from the North-Central, so, his entry can only divide the votes of Christians that could have voted for other candidates in the zone.
“In the core North, his entry into the race will not have any major impact. He can only divide the expected votes from Christians, not among the Muslims.
“Since he is coming on the SDP platform, other political parties may see him as a betrayer. Though the PDP members who are loyal to him may vote for him; but if you are looking at the spread all over the federation, he can’t go beyond the North Central,” Osanyin said.
However, Prof. Gana said details of his five-point agenda, coded “SWIFT’’, would be made public once endorsed by the party leadership.
“As soon as you show us the green light, we will reach out to the nation. We will run an issue-based campaign.
“We want to present to Nigerians a programme of development that will change the situation of ordinary people, as well as the issue of security and poverty,” he said.
Analysts believe that, considering what Professor Gana represents in the political firmament, both Buhari and Atiku would have to reach out to him with a good offer of working together, either through alliance or concession in other to consolidate their grip.
But in the event that he insists on going to the polls with them, he might deplete their votes, even if he would not get the desired number to win the race.