Insecurity may influence presidential election outcome in Zamfara

Analysts are predicting that the precarious security situation bedevilling Zamfara State might influence the outcome of the forthcoming elections.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) has been the ruling party in Zamfara State since the merger of different political parties was consolidated ahead of the 2015 general elections.

Despite the crisis, the APC has a strong political base in the state, in fact, more than any other party. APC roundly defeated the PDP in 2015 general elections in virtually all seats. It even went an extra mile to seize the senatorial, House of Representatives and state assembly seats from PDP during the 2015 general elections, thus making the state an all APC affair.

Even though many political observers attributed the victory of the party at that time to the unmatched popularity of then candidate Muhammad Buhari which was tagged “Hurricane Buhari”. Some pundits opined that those sweeping votes garnered by the party at the presidential polls may not be possible this time around because of a number of factors. The PDP in Zamfara State is not very popular. The party never won governorship election in the state. Even when former Governor Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi defected to the party in the build-up to the 2011 elections, he and many other candidates of the party were defeated by the ANPP through which Abdulaziz Yari emerged as governor.

Many believe President Buhari’s popularity has recently waned largely due to his administration’s inability to tame the menace of armed banditry and cattle rustling plaguing the rural communities of the state.

The fact that the Minister of Defence, Mansur Dan-Ali is from Zamfara State had at a time raised the hopes of the people that their many years of nightmares would be over. However, there are many people who believe that the disenchantment is not enough to stop the President from winning the state during the next election. Buhari has been winning Zamfara State since the time he ventured into politics in 2003. In 2015, he polled 612,202 while the opposition PDP presidential candidate, Goodluck Jonathan garnered 144,833. For now, the PDP is making the issue of security of lives and property a key campaign issue in the state. There is a giant billboard with the portrait of Atiku with an inscription “Better Security for Nigerians” in Gusau, the state capital.

The billboard is sending a clear message to the people of the state. Both Atiku and Buhari are yet to visit Zamfara for their campaigns but many believe Atiku would harp on security challenges in the state as his campaign key point.

There are insinuations that the issue of security can change the voting pattern. This is because the rural dwellers who are mostly affected by the menace of killings and kidnappings could extend the hand of friendship to any candidate who they feel could extricate them from the nightmare.

Although to many people, nothing will change because the killings started when the PDP was in power and they did nearly nothing to stop the horrific assaults on their communities. There are also some people who do not blame the Federal Government for the problem but the affected communities themselves and some state actors.

The Resident Electoral Commissioner in Zamfara State, Dr. Asmau Sani Maikudi, said the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the state had distributed 1,559,593 Permanent Voters Cards for the 2019 elections. Dr Maikudi said there are 119,354 uncollected PVC’s in the state.

She said elections would be conducted in all the 14 local government areas, 147 registration areas, 2516 polling units and 1013 voting units in the state.

Despite the stalemate the ruling APC found itself in the state in recent times, President Buhari is enjoying the support of the two factions. Governor Yari and his allies are solidly behind Buhari likewise the faction of the party’s governorship candidate known as Group 8.

They have all promised to work for Buhari’s success at the polls and this, according to many observers, is as a result of his refusal to align himself with any of the factions. His neutrality regarding the APC crisis in the state would likely pay off.

On the other hand, General Aliyu Gusau is said to be solidly behind the candidature of Atiku.