Nigeria 2023: The Amaechi factor in perspective

One of the distinguishing features of the build-up to the 2023 general polls is the complement of dramatic styles with which some of the aspirants to succeeding President Muhamadu Buhari, are announcing their intents. Beyond the shadow boxing that had been going on behind the scenes by such aspirants for some time, the latter part of last year 2021 and the beginning of this year have witnessed a higher tempo in the conversations over who should be Nigeria’s next President. This is just as new faces who are aspiring to succeed Buhari are popping up by the day. Unarguably, the first to formally launch his ambition was Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), when he visited President Muhamadu Buhari to announce his ambition. His entrance seemed to have opened the floodgate for a flurry of campaigns by a growing number of aspirants. Since then some other aspirants of the APC – notably Dave Umahi - Governor of Ebonyi State and Rochas Okorocha former Governor of Imo State have emulated Tinubu by seeking the endorsement of Buhari to launch their campaigns, thereby making the President the oracle to affirm their bids.

However, while the various APC aspirants besides Tinubu are coming out in a rather run of the mill fashion, the harbinger to the contest for the Presidency by the Minister of Transportation Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, will qualify as a game changer any day. By whatever means however contrived, he is coming into the fray as a crown prince of sorts, who is seemingly ‘anointed’ to take over from Muhamadu Buhari come May 29, 2023 as President of Nigeria. If nothing else, the much heralded spectacle which held yesterday Saturday in Daura Katsina State where Amaechi was turbaned in an impressive ceremony as the as the ‘Dan Amanar’ of Daura, in more ways than one, points to a seeming proximity between the gentleman and the Presidency. The highly influential Katsina Emirate broke with tradition to enlist Amaechi - a devout Catholic into its ranks with the turbaning ceremony, even as the specific duties he will carry out in his new found land, are yet to be clear to the public.

From the perspective of national development the Katsina Emirate deserves copious volumes of commendation for this uncommon act of camaraderie, whereby a non-Muslim now enjoys the privilege of seating in the council with royalty. It is a gesture that commends itself as offering the promise of a greater Nigeria where biases and prejudices based on differences in religion, culture, financial status and any other subjective considerations shall not divide the citizenry. Needless to point out that the honour done to Amaechi impels on him the onus of living up to the great expectations of the Emirate and the wider Nigerian public of him.

Expectedly, given several contemporary factors, it is also not out of place for some Nigerians to read political motives in the turbaning of Amaechi at this time, given that it coincides with the emergence of a strong clamour for him to contest for the Presidency come 2023. Hence, if the turbaning was intended to boost his chances at the polls, such is left for time to tell.

Ordinarily, Amaechi has enjoyed a special relationship with President Muhamadu Buhari, firstly as the Director General of the latter’s successful presidential campaigns for both the first and second terms. Hence, even from a perspective of payback, Buhari owes him some form of gratitude. Then, as a serving minister Amaechi has endowed buhari’s home state and home town (Katsina and Daura respectively), with unprecedented infrastructure projects, whereby the city and the state have been reinvented. Hence, to be favored so lavishly by Amaechi make Daura and Katsina beyond Buhari, also indebted to him. The turbaning ceremony coming at this auspicious time, therefore not only qualifies as the icing on Amaechi’s cake of acclaim and commendations, but sends a strong signal that he should be seen henceforth as a strong contender for the Presidency of the country. And as things stand, the country – especially the political class have to contend with the Amaechi factor, in the race for the Presidency, come 2023.

Talking of the Amaechi factor in the forthcoming Presidential polls entails considering how he fits into the matrix of ongoing presidential race conversations Firstly is the issue of zoning of the slot by the APC, to either the North or South. With the party’s National Convention slated for February 26 2022, whatever advantage Amaechi will gain from zoning, remains in abeyance until the convention. Secondly is the issue of whatever leverage he may secure from his association with Buhari that will swing the Presidency in his favour. Such largely remains indeterminate for now, as the prospects from that factor will depend on the marketabiity of Buhari presently, and how much any protégé of his will be accepted. Questions associated with this dispensation include whether a Buhari sponsored Amaechi will be his own man or continue where Buhari stops.

Yet another dimension of the Amaechi factor is his unique selling point across the nation as an individual. This is where the horse trading will feature mostly. Assuming he wins the confidence of the North - courtesy of the Buhari and Daura connections, he will need to contend with the South West where the Tinubu factor remains a formidable challenge for any aspirant from or outside the zone. Then is the issue of the South East and South South zones. For the South East, the expectation to have the Presidency zoned there by any party enjoys growing support for many reasons, including the deepening sympathy that the zone had been marginalised serially. Hence, while a consensus may be growing that 2023 should be the turn of the zone to produce the president, the question is whether the wide field of aspirants from there will actually concede the slot to Amaechi, given that he hails primarily from the Rivers State in the South South Zone.

And coming to his home Rivers State in the South South, all does not seem to be well with his brand of politics there. As a result of prolonged in-house crises in the Rivers State chapter of his party APC, the party did not participate in the general polls of 2015 and 2019, even with current fears that if normalcy does not prevail the party’s role in 2023 may be compromised. The situation has kept the bulk of its members living in a state of unending unrest and anxiety over their political future. And given that meaningful progress cannot stand on a platform of crises, the prospects of mobilizing traction on the domestic front with which to drive a national presidential campaign, remains a riddle Amaechi has to resolve as soon as possible. In this respect not a few of Amaechi’s proponents cite the case of former President Olusegun Obasanjo who in 1999 won the presidential polls even without preponderant electoral support from his ethnic South West base. Even at that, the two scenarios are hardly similar.

Hence for Amaechi, while he may be basking in the glow of accolades and commendations from far away Daura, it is imperative for him to also consider repairing the home front, for the sake of maximizing the potency of the Amaechi factor in his bid for the Presidency. Needless to remind him that the cliché which cites charity beginning at home, demands his attention now, more than ever.

Ordinarily, Amaechi has enjoyed a special relationship with President Muhamadu Buhari, firstly as the Director General of the latter’s successful presidential campaigns for both the first and second terms. Hence, even from a perspective of payback, Buhari owes him some form of gratitude.