Season of false prophets

Asurvey conducted by the Africa Polling Institute last month revealed that an astounding 78 per cent of Nigerians are either “sad” or “extremely sad” about the state of Nigeria under President Muhammadu Buhari. Thirty-seven per cent said they felt ‘extremely sad’ about the state of the country.

Sadly, that may be the good news. Here is why:

First, Nigeria is now paying workers’ salaries from foreign loans, an authoritative source disclosed during the week. Speaking on Thursday at the 79th Interdisciplinary Research Discourse of the Postgraduate College of the University of Ibadan, Professor Oyewale Tomori said the loans were coming from the IMF and the World Bank.

The famous virologist, who has been outspoken about Nigeria for decades, again criticized the failure of Nigerian governments to invest in science and technology.

“While other countries are getting sumptuous results on their investments, we are wallowing in our own return on iniquity, and return on immorality,” he said, stressing that Nigeria has 10.5 million of its children out of school and 4.5 million undervaccinated, and has become the poverty capital of the world.

“We are investing hugely in corruption and disdain for science and technology, and we now depend on IMF loans and the World Bank to pay our workers’ salaries, to import food which we should be producing,” the expert said.

He gave the following example: “A recent study said the US government between 1988 and 2010 invested $3.8billion in the genome project and it is already generating $796billion. This is what is called return on investment.”

The second reason why far more than 78 per cent of Nigerians may soon be describing themselves as being “sad” or “extremely sad” about Buhari’s Nigeria: The easy Chinese loans, on which the ship of the government sails, have disappeared.

“We were waiting on the Chinese to give us the loans we applied for and till today they’ve not replied,” Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi said in Abuja on Wednesday in connection with his Ministry’s rail projects. “They kept delaying us.”

Nigerians have been concerned about Chinese loans since Mr Buhari walked into Aso Rock. In August 2015, I drew attention to disquieting issues concerning the policy. In March 2018, as the government demonstrated considerable political recklessness about China, I cautioned that it was putting Nigerian sovereignty on the line, and later expressed regret that the government had opted for crumbs.

The government’s confession last week that the Chinese have switched off on Nigeria only extends its lies to Nigerians: China switched off as far back as early 2016. That was when it gave Nigerian conditions for its loans.

The immediate issue was Nigeria’s hunger for a $20b loan from the China EXIMbank, but the Chinese government was looking at the broader raft of requests being indiscriminately pursued by Nigerian officials and institutions, a menace first identified in 2013 by the then-Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

One of those conditions was that China would appoint officials to supervise loans to Nigeria. Nigeria did not officially confirm signing that humiliating agreement. It did not deny it, either.

Is it possible that when Amaechi now confesses—with just over one year to the sun setting on their administration—that China is no longer picking up the phone, that they signed up to be supervised but did not honour that agreement, or that they did not sign it but have been waiting meekly by the phone while they lied about their infrastructure ‘achievements’ and launched more projects they would never complete?

Amaechi’s false outrage last week strains credulity. “We are actually waiting for the Chinese to give us the loan we applied for and they kept delaying us. Will we wait for them forever? The answer is no.”

He sounded as if, the moment you ask for a loan, it must be granted, because of which you go ahead and spend that money in advance, including on a $2bn rail line into another country.

And remember that in March 2020, the relationship between the legislature and the executive came under considerable strain as Nigerian stakeholders began to assail the lack of transparency in the estimated $47 billion loans and projects between China and Nigeria.

Experts say not only are most of the projects being undertaken outside the prevailing Public Procurement regulations in Nigeria, but also that neither the legislature nor the Debt Management Office are involved. Some of the contracts are said to be written in Chinese.

It was little wonder that the world was awash with glee last week as Nigeria declared that its dance partner had not even bothered to announce that she no longer wants to dance. “Nigeria Gives Up Waiting for China Eximbank Railway Loan,” Bloomberg News gloated. “Nigeria Eyes Standard Chartered Rail Project Loan After Chinese Hold Up,” Reuters said.

According to Amaechi’s narrative, after the government turned to Standard Chartered Plc and some unidentified Chinese commercial banks, StanChart approved “some level of funding.”

The heavy breathing you hear is Amaechi now waiting for that credit alert from Britain. The pattern is familiar: Apart from various “deals” with China, remember that in 2018, Amaechi had also said he had a deal with an international consortium led by General Electric to rehabilitate Nigeria’s rail system.

And then in 2019, ahead of Buhari’s state visit to Russia he described an MoU in that country for the “modernisation, infrastructure development and rehabilitation” of Nigeria’s rail. But no Russians appeared in his office despite Amaechi insisting that one Vladimir Putin had “directed” a Russian firm to work on the Lagos-Calabar line.

Is Nigeria embarrassed? I do not think that the APC government knows what embarrassment is. Last week, Bloomberg recalled that before the 2019 Nigeria election, “the ruling All Progressives Congress promised to complete the Lagos-Kano line before the next nationwide vote, which is scheduled to take place in 12 months.”

The truth is that in addition to its paralyzing corruption, the Buhari government mistakes propaganda for performance, and loudness for laudation. Sadly, its man-made setbacks and sheer incompetence are coming to a head in his final year. Ordinarily, one in which officials would strive to deliver on their promises, as the walls collapse around the house this will be one in which APC officials fortify themselves either for political retirement or for electoral contests.

In other words, next year’s election is arriving at no worse time in the calendar of our decay. It is seven years since Buhari said at his inauguration, “As far as the constitution allows me, I will try to ensure that there is responsible and accountable governance at all levels of government in the country. For I will not have kept my own trust with the Nigerian people if I allow others abuse theirs under my watch.”

He didn’t, and Nigerians now know how comprehensively they have been deceived.

As the season of false prophets now returns, with the filthiest and most compromised of Nigerians claiming to be saint or saviour, we must resolve, each and all, never to be cheapened again.

-This column welcomes rebuttals from interested government officials.