February 2023: Here comes the momentous month!

All over the world, most people welcome this month of February 2023, with great expectations given its status as the successor to January which in many instances, is encumbered with the hangover from the preceding end of year activities. Also, with January serving as the launch pad for the new year, February often provides the actual foretaste of the rest of the year. For Nigerians, this February will remain momentous as the forthcoming polls exercise - which is slated to hold a fortnight away from now, will prove. Already, deep seated concerns over the outcome of the polls exercise may have dampened (especially for the youth), much of the enthusiasm for indulgence in the age-long Valentine’s Day festivities, due on day 14 of the month.

For most Nigerians, what is on their minds presently is the build up to February 25 polls and the outcome of that day’s exercise. Also at the back of the minds of the same Nigerians, is that the conduct of the polls of that day will initiate a paradigm shift in governance in the country, as a successor to President Muhamadu Buhari, will emerge. Although the election of senators and members of the House of Representatives will also hold on that day, the attention of the country is on the presidential polls. In the same vein, while elections of state governors and members of state assemblies are slated for two weeks later on March 11 2023, such a dispensation pales into second place in comparison with the earlier slated presidential polls. Just as well, even as the effective date for handover by President Muhamadu Buhari to his successor is statutorily May 29, the February 25 date remains the defining point for power shift at the centre for Nigeria.

Many have referred to the polls as a make or break dispensation for the country in the light of at least two factors namely the build up to it, and the likely implications of its outcomes. By the same token, where the pendulum of political power will swing beyond the Buhari era, will depend on what happens in this month of February.

With respect to its build up which started officially with the INEC and long before the new Electoral Act 2022 was enacted, and when electoral campaigns were allowed the parties, this February is billed to witness the culmination of all expectations and speculations over Nigeria’s political future.

With respect to the build-up to the polls, Nigerians have witnessed some of the most engaging events with February featuring the fast approaching crescendo in electioneering campaigns in a manner that is consistent with the country’s electoral culture, with perhaps the only innovation being the prospects of INEC implementing the Electoral Act ostensibly through the promised deployment of advanced machine-assisted election protocols such as the BVAS. Hence if there is any basis for great expectations from the polls it is the anticipated use of the BVAS. The February polls provide the opportunity for testing the resolve and operations of INEC with respect to spawning credible polls for the country.

While the polls remain the main event for February there are also some side shows of the exercise that have engaged public interest due to among other factors, their seriousness in some instance as well as comical value and even banality in other instances. Typical instances include the medley of twists and turns in the ongoing horse trading that has marked the internal processes of the political parties. Also of interest is the series of slips and gaffes on the soap box by candidates especially Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who is so far leading in redefining the limits of decorum in political campaigns.

The foregoing notwithstanding, of more concern to Nigerians is the type of country that Nigeria will be after February 25th polls. Will there be a change for the better, or stagnation or even retardation? The answer to these questions gnaws at the heart of every Nigerian - political inclination and party of choice notwithstanding. As the campaigns have revealed, the polls will pitch the various shade of conservative tendencies that had retarded the country’s development pace against each other, with scant consideration for the real development concerns of the people.

With respect to the build-up to the polls as witnessed by Nigerians, it has been bereft of significant inspiration. In the same vein, the expectations from the exercise also offer themselves to predictable forms. The way forward for Nigerians at large is to dispense with just swallowing hook line and sinker, the promises of the candidates. The time now is for interrogating and visualisng the impact on the country from each candidate’s victory.

The country’s experiences – both pleasant and bitter - under the Buhari administration are well documented and widely acknowledged. Of particular concern is that if with all that Nigerians have endured in the past seven and half years, the administration can still manifest failures as associated with the ongoing swap of new currency notes for old ones, the choice of who not to hand over the leadership of the country to remains self manifest. Shall Nigerians vote for a continuation or reversal of such tendencies is the choice before millions of them this February.

As is understandable, the coming days will tell.

Of particular concern is that if with all that Nigerians have endured in the past seven and half years, the administration can still manifest failures as associated with the ongoing swap of new currency notes for old ones, the choice of who not to hand over the leadership of the country to remains self manifest. Shall Nigerians vote for a continuation or reversal of such tendencies is the choice before millions of them this February