The odds against Yero, El-Rufa’i

Two leading governorship candidates in Kaduna State, incumbent Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Malam Nasir el-Rufa’i of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will slug it out in the April 11 governorship election

Focus is now on Mukhtar Ramalan Yero and Nasir el-Rufa’i because of their popularity and ceaseless campaign initiatives and consultations within the state.

With barely four weeks left to campaign, the contest is becoming a bit more intense between the two major political parties in their struggle to win the 3.5 million votes in the state.

Both candidates have their own strengths as they have huge followings in certain areas of the state. Thus, analysts say they stand a 50-50 chance in the rescheduled polls.

Yero’s PDP is the ruling party and had won all governorship contests and majority of seats in both national and state assemblies as well local councils since the return to civil rule. Apart from the 1999 election in which the PDP won the governorship poll with a landslide victory, subsequent polls were won by the party by less than impressive margins.

Yero and his PDP loyalists are of the view that their party is still popular and could win the rescheduled polls based on the history of the party’s winning streak in the state.

Yero enjoys incumbency and, thus, has financial advantage over his main challenger.

“He apparently needs not to work hard to get his name and manifesto out, though he does,” a PDP supporter said. “Most of his supporters believe that his re-election chances are more promising in that regard.”

Vice President Mohammed Namadi Sambo, who undoubtedly is Yero’s political and business godfather, has been using his influence and resources to canvass for votes for not only President Goodluck Jonathan but also for the governor.

He recently spent five days in Kaduna where he held talks with traditional, religious and opinion leaders. He allegedly shared monies and vehicles including Toyota jeeps to opinion leaders and Toyota Coaster buses to religious and cultural groups.

But some renowned leaders in the state had declined the VP’s invitation for meetings and reportedly rejected any form of inducement from him. Sambo’s efforts may be in vain because some segments of the Kaduna voting population have made up their minds to vote against Yero, because of the poor rating of his party’s presidential candidate Jonathan.

“I personally have no problems with Yero, he seems to be prudent, young and eloquent, but in fairness to my party, the PDP, I will not vote for him because Jonathan is so unpopular,” a PDP loyalist had told our correspondent in confidence.

But the statement made by Yero’s campaign team’s media head Yakubu Lere at their last rally in Zaria attested to the confidence of the governor ahead of the election. He said the huge crowd that received them was “pleasing, commendable and encouraging,” adding that “it has equally confirmed the acceptability of Yero’s candidature by the people.”

However, analysts say Yero is likely to have tough time in places hitherto regarded as the stronghold of the party. For instance, some places including Yarkasuwa in Saminaka, headqaurters of Lere Local Government Area where PDP consistently won elections since 1999 have now switched sides.

“Most of the prominent PDP leaders in the area have recently defected to the opposition APC and many more will be leaving and it is unlikely PDP will win Yarkasuwa in the next elections,” PDP leader in Saminaka said.

Also, observers of political trends in the state contend that Southern Kaduna Senatorial District, which used to be the stronghold of PDP, will be keenly contested this time largely due to the popularity of El-Rufa’i’s running mate Barnabas Bala Bantex and the House of Representative member in the area Jagaba Adams Jagaba who recently dumped the PDP. Both men are political heavyweights in the district.

Senator Esther Nenadi Usman, who is from the district, has been holding meetings with about 300 religious and cultural groups from the area with a view to boosting the popularity of PDP and its candidates. While some pundits see the move as counterproductive, some believe it was a way of reaching out to aggrieved members of the party.

As it is, more focus is now on El-Rufa’i, who is virtually seen as a political newcomer in Kaduna. His party, the APC, which came to being about two years ago, was pretty new too, but both became Kaduna’s main political forces since mid last year. His support has risen steadily, thereby adding pressure on the ruling PDP.

He served as the Director General of the Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE) from 1999 to 2003 and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister from 2003 to 2007.

Many see El-Rufa’i as a successful public servant who has the ability and know-how to bridge the infrastructure and social deficits in the state. But the former FCT minister is cautious of making promises because of the state’s heavy debt burden. He said at a rally last year that he was likely to face financial challenges if elected since the state is still servicing debts.

El-Rufa’i is benefitting from the huge popularity of his party’s presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari, especially at the grassroots. However, the postponement of February polls by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) by six weeks has dampened the morale of the APC and given the PDP a chance to intensify its consultations, mediations and house-to-house campaigns.

Head of the party’s presidential campaign team in the state Suleiman Hunkuyi had to hurriedly address a media conference where he said the postponement hasn’t in anyway affected the party’s popularity.

He claimed that members of the ruling PDP are defecting to the APC in their hundreds every other day. Just recently, a PDP governorship candidate with massive support in Southern Kaduna, Isma’ila Yakawada, joined the party, while hundreds of people in Panbeguwa town also defected to the APC at a brief ceremony. Though, there were suspicions that most of the defectors have ulterior motives.

The major hurdle faced by El-Rufa’i was the acrimony that existed among APC leaders. Firstly, there were speculations that the results of the state congresses last year were rigged by El-Rufa’i and several party leaders revolted against the emergence of Bantex as party chairman. Secondly, the primary election that saw the emergence of El-Rufa’i as governorship candidate was said to have been rigged, triggering dissatisfaction among party faithful.

Though meetings were reportedly held to chart a way forward, the anger from some quarters within the APC spells uncertainty for the party and somewhat reveals an impending risk of explosion sooner or later.