MONDAYBUSINESS FG’s recovery package: Experts worry over absence of blueprint ...We are on it, says Udoma
The absence of implementation blueprint may stall growth projections in the recently launched National Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (NERGP), experts have said.
President Muhammadu Buhari last week launched the four-year plan running from 2017 to 2017, which was developed by the Ministry of Budget and National Planning to reverse the economic downturns in the country and put the economy on the path of sustained growth.
A professor of Economics at the University of Uyo, Professor Leo Ukpong, told the Daily Trust that the plan is “over ambitious” but “realisable” if it leverages on commitment and strong political will.
But the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Sen. Udoma Udo Udoma in an interview with Channels TV over the weekend, said very soon experts will be gathered to work with the ministry’s staff as well as other MDAs to come out with a more detailed implementation roadmap and once its ready, it will be published on the website of the ministries so that anybody can check and compare what was planned and what is achieved.
Ukpong said though four years are enough to make adjustments in the economy, it may not be sufficient to achieve the targets set in the plan.
The priorities of the plan include stabilising the macroeconomic environment, achieving agriculture and food security, ensuring energy sufficiency in power and petroleum products, improving transportation infrastructure, driving industrialisation and focusing on Small and Medium Scale Enterprises.
The ERGP emphasises investment in infrastructure, especially in power, roads, rail, ports and broadband networks and it also intends to build on on-going projects and identify new ones to be implemented by 2020 to improve the national infrastructure backbone.
Professor Ukpong said the plan lacks details on how the targets will be achieved.
Experts at the Preston Consults, a global management consulting firm, also told the Daily Trust that the projected growth and recovery plan may be too ambitious given the limited time of four years.
The document seen by the Daily Trust targets to create 15 million jobs, achieve 7 per cent GDP rate and a single digit inflation rate by 2020.
“I don’t think 7 per cent turnaround is impossible but I don’t think we have the capacity,” the University don said.
He said the Federal Government should be mindful of recruitments into government works as job creation ideally should be private sector driven.
Professor Ukpong agreed with the plan that it is possible to hit a 7 per cent inflation rate by 2020 but argued that it would be impossible to move from negative GDP rate to an average of 4.6 per cent by 2020.
The Head of the Economics Department of the University of Abuja, Professor Sarah Anyanwu, said the four-year period is realistic and achievable with strong political will.
She MDAs that are supposed to drive the process must be committed to achieve result.
The plan made provision to increase the VAT rate for luxury items from 5 to 15 per cent from 2018, while improving CIT and VAT compliance to raise N350 billion annually.
To stabilise foreign exchange, the plan recommended that the naira should be allowed to float and there should be an alignment between the monetary and fiscal policies.
The recovery plan projects to reduce unemployment from 13.9 per cent as of the third quarter of 2016 to 11.23 per cent by 2020
Crude oil output is forecast to rise from about 1.8 mbpd in 2016 to 2.2 mbpd in 2017 and 2.5 mbpd by 2020 and there will be relentless focus on electricity and gas to drive growth and expansion in all other sectors, with emphasis on agriculture.
An economist, Group Managing Director of TL First Group, Dr Olu Olasode, told the Daily Trust exclusively that the desired macroeconomic stability and growth in Nigeria depends on the execution of the recently launched NERGP by President Buhari.
The development economist said sustained execution of the plan is important to the desired success. Dr. Olasode, made a case for evaluation and tracking of performance of the plan.
Udoma also said most of the targets will be captured in the various budget for the proposed years, and that ministers will have the implementation plan and present report on schedule.
He said beside the ministry that is coordinating the implementation of the plan, a committee at the presidency will ensure overall monitoring of the plan with the backing of the president and the vice president.