Things that would shape the 2019 race
Many including realignment by top politicians, defections, formation of new parties by dissatisfied and aggrieved politicians, what the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) would be able to accomplish in the next one year among other salient issues would definitely determine how the 2019 general elections would look like. But most importantly, the health challenge of President Muhammadu Buhari will be the caveat to whatever politicians within the ruling APC and the opposition parties would do.
Despite the fact that Nigeria is roughly two years away from elections, the coast seems clear for politicking though the Electoral Act (2010) as amended clearly stipulates when to start campaigning. But there is a clear departure from the past because already, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in March this year, unveiled the time-table for the 2019 general election. INEC’s Chairman Professor Mahmood Yakubu said the Presidential and National Assembly elections shall be held on February 16, 2019 while the elections into governorship and Houses of Assembly are slated for March 2, 2019. Though a brave and timely initiative, which will undoubtedly give ample time for political parties and stakeholders in the elections to prepare very well, many Nigerian politicians have already started campaigning in earnest, not things, minding the implications, hence making the political space tense.
It’s evident that the use of card reader for the 2015 elections had blocked many loopholes but there are clear indications that many politicians were not comfortable with it, and already, INEC faced some litigation in court over the issue. The card reader has now been incorporated into the amended Electoral Act recently passed by the Senate, though it is yet to become law. Another wild political factor is that over 80 political associations have applied to INEC for registration. It remains to be seen whether some of them will make impact in the event they get registered, in the event the ruling APC and the leading opposition parties such as PDP and APGA fail to meet up with expectations. Sources say some powerful politicians from both APC and PDP are behind the move to register some of the new parties, with a view to using them as alternative platforms in case of eventualities.
For now, PDP has degenerated to a bedlam since 2015 when it was defetaed by APC. Many pundits think the APC is not faring any better when it comes to managing internal crisis. “The only thing that is holding APC together is President Muhammadu Buhari,” said Umar Sanda, the acting secretary of the PDP Youth Wing in Maiduguri, Borno State. “There are many disgruntled elements within the APC and they are only holding back their anger because of Buhari.” According to him, the steam that gave rise to the formation of APC in 2013 and 2014 will not be there in 2018 and 2019. “And that is when PDP will resurface because besides the internal wrangling bedevilling us, even APC does not have the grassroots support that we have.”
At present, President Buhari’s ill-health cannot be wished away when it comes to political discourse in any circle. He is currently not in Nigeria and even when he travelled to the United Kingdom earlier in the year for his annual leave which later turned to medical vacation, politicians within the ruling APC seized the opportunity and reignited their urge for power. Many of them believed that Buhari might not return after all; but considering the fact that the Constitution of Nigeria clearly stipulates what should be done in the absence of a president, many decided instead to scheme on how to get the vice presidential slot. It was in the midst of these conspiracies that Buhari returned only to go back to London once more after staying in Nigeria for barely two months.
At present, it will not be wrong to suggest that the political temperament in Nigeria is highly charged even though those in the corridors of power have continued reassuring that all is well. The tendency is that the suspicion will continue up until 2018 when Buhari, all things being equal, makes his position known as to whether he will go for a second term or not. In the event he will go for a second term, then serious politicking, especially from opposition parties will heighten; and this will also embolden some politicians from his party to break away and give him a run for his money. But in the event he says he will not vie for a second term, the political environment will also witness severe scheming because the process of producing a new flag bearer within APC will not be a tea party.
While politicians of northern extraction, including serving and former governors, ministers and others would struggle among themselves for the ticket, their counterparts from the southern part of the country would also test the waters so as to produce one of their own. And that is where the “alliance” between the North and the South West, which produced the joint ticket of Buhari and Osinbajo will witness its first major examination that could make or mar the alliance. Ahead of the general elections, some of the politicians to watch would include Buhari himself, Prof. Osinbajo, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Sule Lamido, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, Ahmed Makarfi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rochas Okorocha and Babatunde Fashola among others. All of them are potential presidential material but it is only the situation at the time that will determine who carries the day.