Is APC at crossroads in South East?

For reasons that were manifestingly obvious, the people of the South East were skeptical in embarrassing the All Progressive Congress (APC) when it hit town in the run up to the 2015 general elections. But being republican in nature and liberal in attitude, some Igbo leaders have since signed up with the party. Unfortunately, the issues that propelled Ndigbo to treat APC with suspicion have stubbornly refused to go away. If you ask a any Igbo man in the street today, he will tell you that the marginalization of the race has taken a life of its own in the APC led government of Muhammadu Buhari. This of course, has made it germane for APC to work even harder to win the trust of Ndigbo if it hopes to make any impact in the South East in 2019.

However, events in the last few weeks do not suggest that APC is really conscious of dislodging PDP out of the South East. If anything, there appears to be an orchestrated plan to keep the party away from the region. And this has negative consequences given the fact that both the PDP and APGA and even UPP have continued to make inroads into the South East with a view to either consolidating or at best registering a presence. In Imo State, the leadership style of Governor Rochas Okorocha has alienated a sizeable part of the population. In Abia state, suspicion rules in the APC. In Ebonyi, two factions loyal to Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, Science & Technology Minister and Senator Julius Ucha have refused to let go, while in Enugu not much is heard of the party.

That was why many Nigerians expected the APC to use the November 18, 2017 governorship elections in Anambra State to make a statement concerning its seriousness and readiness to take over the South East. But the acrimony and restiveness in the state chapter of APC after the governorship primaries do not appear to sustain that hope. Although Hon. (Dr.) Tony Nwoye was declared winner and candidate of APC for the governorship election, the protests that have greeted that exercise suggest that all is not well and that he may not actually be the one to snatch victory from Governor Willie Obiano.

Indeed the celebratory mood in the camp of Obiano and APGA shortly after Nwoye was declared the APC candidate raised concerns that APC might not have got it right. It was as if APGA is saying that this man is certainly not going to be a big threat to its victory again. Yes, APGA defeated the same Nwoye as PDP candidate in the 2013 governorship election in the state. And just as APC is now holding power at the centre, the PDP was also in power with President Jonathan in charge. But inspite of the federal might and not forgetting that PDP was actually in control of Anambra State, producing all senators and majority of the House of Representatives members, Nwoye lost. Why did he lose to Obiano who then was not a governor?

Even before answering the questions, something curious happened prior to the election. President Jonathan declined to attend the rally where Nwoye was given the PDP flag. Security concerns were cited as the reasons why he stayed away. There was also a groundswell of opposition from PDP members in Anambra State against Nwoye’s candidature because of his alleged romance with a particular godfather. But more fundamentally, he did not command the respect of Anambra people as some of them felt that he was not the right man for the job. The rest, they say, is history as Nwoye, and not necessarily PDP was rejected and Obiano was elected.

Now history appears to be repeating itself. There is another groundswell of opposition to the emergence of Nwoye as the APC candidate. The most common logic is that if he could not defeat Obiano then, is it now that the man is a governor with strings of achievements that he can do so? People easily cite the case of Rochas Okorocha and Ikedi Ohakim to buttress this point. But then again, party members are alleging that Nwoye did not obtain his primary victory in a straight way. They alleged that the primary was heavily compromised and therefore lost credibility. In fact more than 100 delegates have sworn to an affidavit that they were induced. And a banking transaction to this effect has not helped matters. Also the issue of the same godfather with a document on how Anambra resources will be shared if Nwoye emerges governor has refused to go away.

If these issues have encumbered the candidature of Nwoye as alleged by APC leaders and members in Anambra State, does it not suggest that the party is not in a sound footing to win the election? Given the sensitivity of Ndi Anambra to the issues of security and godfatherism which nearly wrecked the state between 1999 and 2003, there is a present danger that Nwoye may once again be rejected in the polls and the real loser will be APC and its hope to capture the South East. This is a real challenge that the national leadership of APC must rise up to for it to be taken serious.

While some politicians are known to be bad losers who turn around to accuse their victorious opponents of fraud, there is need for APC leadership to thoroughly investigate the various allegations flying round the candidate in Anambra State with a view to redressing the matter before the November 18 polls. For the interest of APC and indeed that of Anambra State, the APC must act fast to uphold justice and integrity to reflect the leadership it flaunts in President Buhari.

As has been established, when a party goes to the polls fragmented on account of a fraud primary election and emergence of an unpopular candidate, the party is bound to lose. We know that what is even lawful may not be expedient. The gale of opposition against the candidature of Nwoye does not look good for APC in Anambra State. If anything, it is a storm that may consume the party, and this is why a replacement may be urgent and inevitable. Nwoye could still play another role within the party but his winning the governorship of Anambra State with this level of rejection and resentment by his own party men and women is actually a tall order.

Therefore for APC to realize its dream of penetrating the South East, the acid test is with the Anambra governorship election on November 18, 2017. The first step to getting it right is fielding the best and most acceptable candidate who can easily defeat Obiano and command the respect of the people of the State. Any attempt to foist an unpopular candidate who procured victory through unfair means and who is encumbered by godfatherism and security concerns will definitely boomerang and spell defeat for APC in the election. The time to act is now. How the Anambra saga is resolved will determine how the South East responds to APC in 2019.

Chinaka wrote from Awka, Anambra State greyviewstudios@gmail.com

Events in the last few weeks do not suggest that APC is really conscious of dislodging PDP out of the South East. If anything, there appears to be an orchestrated plan to keep the party away from the region