101.303 Inflation rises to 13.71%, highest in about 3 yrs

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 13.71 per cent in September 2020 in a yearly comparison.

The September inflation figure is the highest inflation rate recorded in 31 months since the 14.33% rate was attained in February 2018, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report released on Thursday.

The increase is 0.49% point higher than the rate recorded in August 2020 which was 13.22%. It was 11.24% in September 2019.

On monthly basis, in September 2020, the all items inflation was highest in Bauchi (3.36%), Kogi (2.63%) and Zamfara (2.75%), while Nasarawa (0.66%), Abuja (0.64%) and Ondo (0.31%) recorded the slowest rise in headline month on month inflation.

The October NBS report said every month, 10,534 informants spread across the country provided price data for the computation of the CPI. The market items currently consist of 740 goods and services regularly priced.

The composite food index rose by 16.66% in September compared to 16% in August. This rise was caused by an increase in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, meat, fish, fruits and oils and fats.

On a monthly basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.8%, up by 0.21% points from 1.67% recorded in August.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of passenger transport by air, medical services, hospital services, pharmaceutical products, passenger transport by road, motor cars, vehicle spare parts among others.

On monthly basis, the September 2020 food inflation was highest in Zamfara (3.65%), Anambra (3.19%) and Kaduna (3.15%), while Nasarawa (0.51%) and

Abuja (0.15%) recorded the slowest rise with Ondo recording price deflation or negative inflation.

However, analysts have said the inflation may close at 13.21% by year end due to the border closure and forex restriction on certain import items.

Mosope Arubiyi and Ibukun Omoyeni of Vetiva Research said in addition, food inflation rose as flooding hinders food supply while higher transport costs also infiltrated into food prices causing a 16.7% rise in September.

They raised their inflation forecast from 13.10% to 13.21% for 2020 as against the 11.39% for 2019. “We believe food inflation will average 15.9% in 2020 (13.7% in 2019).”