The West offers little reprieve to the Sahel's jihadist battle
As jihadist militancy continues to expand in the Sahel, Western forces will be faced with a difficult choice of either ramping up their commitment or cutting their losses to reduce their footprint.
As Western security efforts struggle to keep militants from exploiting local vacuums in governance in the Sahel, escalating jihadist violence across the region shows no sign of slowing down. France has led the counterterrorism charge in the Sahel since its 2013 intervention in Mali to halt an emerging jihadist offensive. But those gains have been slowly and surely slipping away, as the insurgent threat has now morphed into a complex mess of ethnic and religious insurrections throughout most of Mali, and well into Burkina Faso and Niger.
Militant activity in the Sahel has significantly ramped up in tempo and geographic scope over the past year. But despite the degrading security situation, Western forces in the region have been reluctant to commit more resources to the seemingly unending fight. Jihadism thus will continue to spread across the region, as local armed forces struggle to secure the expansive desert region without additional outside help.
In fending off this increasingly formidable threat, however, France has largely been left to go it alone. Local military forces aren't adequately equipped to fight off the insurgents, and other Western countries with smaller operations in the region, such as the United States, have been hesitant to pick up the slack. But without any additional help, the security situation in the Sahel inevitably will worsen. And as it does, France ultimately will be forced to reconsider whether it's worth keeping soldiers on the front lines of a fight with potentially no end in sight.
Of the roughly 24,000 foreign and regional troops currently deployed in the Sahel, France remains the region's main security guarantor. Today, about 4,500 French forces operate throughout Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso to assist local governments in re-establishing control over their territories. With the logistical support of several other Western nations, the French operation is composed of a wide variety of military assets, ranging from forward-deployed ground forces in Mali to intelligence and air assets operating out of Chad. At the current strength, however, the mission is still spread thin, considering that those 4,500 French forces essentially cover an area of responsibility spanning more than 1.9 million square miles (or about half the size of the United States).
But while France has made the largest financial and troop commitments, it isn't the only one operating in the region. From the start in 2013, the French intervention has leaned heavily on logistical support provided by European Union and NATO partners. And over time, this support has grown into a physical military presence of Western forces in Mali and neighbouring countries.
In addition to these unilateral and EU operations, the broader security effort in the Sahel leans heavily on a U.N. peacekeeping mission. At over 13,000 military personnel, the United Nations has more boots on the ground in Mali than all other regional and foreign forces combined. But unlike those other forces, the U.N. operation is primarily a defensive mission focused on supporting and protecting Malian authorities and their broader efforts to restore order in the country. Of course, that hasn't kept U.N. peacekeepers from becoming the frequent target of insurgent attacks in Mali. And controlling the violence in the country would also no doubt be far more difficult without the United Nation's presence. But the fact remains that the U.N. mission isn't operating under an offensive posture against insurgent groups, which limits its ability to tackle the core security threats facing the region.
Indeed, such an offensive capacity is instead meant to be handled by the Group of Five (G5) Sahel Force. Established in 2017 with France's help, the force's 5,000 soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad and Mauritania have conducted several large operations against militants
in conjunction with French forces. But the local African force has also found it difficult to acquire the financial support it desperately needs to effectively tackle the growing militancy threat over the vast region. In recent years, France has managed to shake loose more funding for the force from the European Union, as well as from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. But the level of foreign aid is still relatively small in comparison to the massive scale of the operation. As a result, the cash-strapped force has struggled to secure the enormous area of militancy with its current limited capabilities.
The United States also contributes to regional security efforts, albeit at a lower intensity than its European allies. In addition to logistically supporting French efforts in the Sahel, the United States runs its own counterterrorism operations in and around Niger. The U.S. military also has a persistent presence of special operations forces in the country, along with a new drone base, focused on supporting regionwide military capacity building through multilateral training exercises. But the United States still has only about 800 troops deployed in the Sahel (compared with the 12,000 U.S. troops currently deployed in counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan). And it's unlikely to deploy any more, given that the U.S. military's commitment to its operations in Niger – as well as its missions in Africa as a whole – have come under increased scrutiny following the deaths of four U.S. soldiers in 2017. So while Washington will likely sustain its counterterrorism operations, the United States is unlikely to step up and take a leading role in the Sahel.
Left in France's Hands
With its regional and Western allies either unable or unwilling to significantly help lift the security burden, France has largely been left with the daunting task of sustainably securing the vast and increasingly hostile Sahel region. But in doing so, its chosen to instead work in support of local and regional actors that could offer a long-term solution to the existing power vacuum, instead of depending on its own brute military force. While this approach is intended to save France from taking on a permanent role as the region's only security provider, building up local security capabilities has proven no easy feat. And there are few signs such a strategy has offered any sizable reprieve to the security dilemma to date.
In response to the growing jihadist threat in the Sahel, France is planning to deploy additional special operations forces to the region. Named "Operation Takuba," the mission is cantered around building up the capacity of the Malian armed forces over the next year. The exact shape and mission of the operation remain unclear, but it could involve anything from setting up training camps to accompanying Malian forces in the field. So far, about a dozen European countries have shown interest in contributing forces to the mission. But it remains to be seen just how large the French operation will actually be, which has fuelled fears that it may be too limited to have a significant effect on a regional scale.
Indeed, a similar effort through the European Union Training Mission has so far yielded mixed results. The EU operation, which began in 2013, is focused on training the Malian military in the country's capital of Bamako and so far has yielded mixed results. But while over 14,000 soldiers have gone through the EU programme in recent years, the capabilities of the Malian armed forces are still severely lacking — raising questions over whether a similar boost in training efforts under France's Operation Takuba would be any more effective.
Reaching a Limit
As the leader of the counterterrorism charge, France nonetheless remains unlikely to significantly alter its posture in the Sahel in the near term. But it too will be remiss to expend more resources and energy on a fight that's seemingly unwinnable without more outside help. For now, France will instead continue its strategy of building up local security capabilities. But this status quo strategy, of course, has yet to prove effective as jihadists continue to take siege of the region.
Indeed, the focus of France and its allies on maintaining a light footprint in the Sahel while supporting and building up local security capabilities means that notable results could take some time to materialize. But in the meantime, fatigue on those foreign intervention efforts will continue to build, as forces struggle to control a seemingly unwinnable fight. Already, the lack of observable improvement has fuelled frustrations on both sides – with France questioning the resolve of local actors, while local leaders grow increasingly critical of French troops.
And thus, the situation on the ground will continue to worsen unless other Western allies significantly ramp up their own manpower and resources to help France and the G5 Sahel Force go toe-to-toe with jihadists in the Sahel. Otherwise, it's likely only a matter of time before France is forced to cut its losses and bring its troops home, regardless of continued militant activity.
“The West Offers Little Reprieve to the Sahel's Jihadist Battle” is republished under content confederation between Financial Nigeria and Stratfor.