AS CAMPAIGNS FOR TITANIC BATTLE BEGIN
Buhari, Atiku Plot to Capture 13 Battleground States President to Hinge Campaign on Projects Ex-VP Launches Policy Statement Tomorrow APC, PDP to Spend Billions on Rallies, Logistics
As campaigns for the 2019 Presidential and National Assembly elections commence today, a member of the Muhammadu Buhari Presidential Campaign Organisation in 2015, Osita Okechukwu, said the thrust of the president’s campaigns would be “on-going critical infrastructure projects across the country”. Okechukwu, the DirectorGeneral, Voice of Nigeria (VON), who spoke on phone with Daily Trust on Sunday, said President Buhari would not use money during the campaigns. He said having been with President Buhari for over a decade, he believed the APC candidate would focus on things that people can see. He cited the second Niger Bridge in the South-East, the Mambilla Hydroelectricity Power Plant in the North-East and the standard gauge
rail lines between Lagos and Ibadan as some of those projects.
He said, “When you embark on such massive infrastructure projects, the tendency is that you have no money to distribute and people might misunderstand you.”
The candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, on the other hand, will commence his campaign with the launch of a policy plan for Nigeria.
In a special announcement, he said the programme tagged, “Let’s get Nigeria working again- My plan to get Nigeria working again”, will be launched tomorrow.
The announcement stated that Nigerians can watch the launch at “facebook/atiku.org” and at “twitter.com/atiku”. A statement issued by the Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation, said the decision to kick-start his presidential campaign with the launch of a policy document is to reiterate his commitment to run an issue-based campaign.
“The intention is to take our policy directly to Nigerians and to register the belief of Atiku that it will take the collective effort of every Nigerian to rebuild the country. That is why we want Nigerians to access the policy directly and ultimately take ownership of it,” the statement said.
It added that the campaign of the organisation would offer a simple message: “united, the people of Nigeria can begin anew, creating a prosperous and secure future and a better life for every Nigerian.”
It stated that on the first working day of the campaign, the PDP and its candidate, Abubakar would put forward his plan to get Nigeria working again.
“We have chosen to do this by having the PDP presidential candidate speak directly to the Nigerian people on Facebook. This medium came about as part of the telecommunications revolution that he helped start as Vice President in 1999-2007.
“We have also chosen to have our candidate speak online as it facilitates the ability for anyone to download a copy of his policy document at no cost.
“Our policy document focuses on creating jobs, ensuring security, growing business, developing power and water infrastructure, agriculture and education and how we will empower women, our policies outline the goals and methods for developing and revitalising Nigeria as the foundation of our campaign.
“This policy document is being launched to encourage a dialogue with the people of Nigeria, inviting everyone to join us in helping to get Nigeria working again,” the statement added.
It said that Atiku looked forward to conducting vital discussions as he travels across the length and breadth of Nigeria, meeting and talking with stakeholders.
The stakeholders, according to the organisation, include farmers, small business people, workers, students, mothers, and children.
“We recognise that this will be a vigorous and hard fought election. We are completely confident that with peaceful, free and fair elections, we will be victorious,” the statement added.
The ban on electioneering campaigns is to be officially lifted today, November 18, 2018. Consequently, presidential and National Assembly campaigns for the 2019 elections are kick-starting. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the leading opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), appear battle-ready to woo the 84,271,832 registered voters. With their campaign budgets expected to run into billions of Naira, they have begun mapping and identifying their areas of strength and weaknesses, Daily Trust on Sunday reports. By Hamza Idris, Ismail Mudashir, Muideen Olaniyi, Fidelis Mac-Leva & Saawua Terzungwe
The official commencement of electioneering campaigns today ahead of next year’s general polls has ushered in another crucial political season with political parties bearing their fangs. Undoubtedly, it will also be another season for moneybags, as money will again play a prominent role in determining who is going to win which office in the election year.
In 2015, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) estimated that political parties in Nigeria spent nearly N196billion ($547million) to contest various offices, making the elections the most expensive so far in the country’s history.
The chief technical adviser to the then chairman of the INEC, Prof. Bolade Eyinla, had revealed these figures during a 2017 conference organised by the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. He said: “In Nigeria, our core cost was $547 million. It is perhaps the most expensive election we have ever seen. I have seen figures somewhere, between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, and, believe me; it is true if we really knew what happened. In one scandal, we heard of $115 million,” Prof. Eyinla had said.
The now ruling All Progressives Congress and the main opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party, had reportedly filed their official financial reports on the 2015 general elections, indicating that they both spent a little below N8 billion in the keenly contested polls.
While the APC said it spent only N2.9 billion, the PDP, which was the ruling party at the time, said it spent N4.8 billion for the polls. The details were contained in the parties’ audited reports submitted to the INEC as required by law. The Electoral Act requires political parties to submit their financial statements within six months after an election, while the commission is expected to publish the audited reports, at least in three national newspapers.
But independent findings had indicated that the then ruling party may have contributed to the election with N8.74 billion while the main opposition party spent N2.9 billion to contest the 2015 elections. These were expenses for advertisements in the media alone.
With the 2015 spending on elections more than twice that of the previous election year (2011), it is believed that the burgeoning political parties would spend more in 2019, especially with the dollar having doubled in value since the last elections.
How APC, PDP plan to raise campaign funds
In its recent amendment to the Electoral Act, the National Assembly fixed spending for presidential elections at N5billion.
Although the APC and PDP have not come out with estimated budgets for their campaigns, it is expected that the amount would far exceed what they spent in 2015.
The Director of Strategic Communications, President Muhammadu Buhari Campaign Organisation (PMBCO), Festus Keyamo, told Daily Trust on Sunday that the organisation would announce how it would raise funds for the APC soon after campaigns begin, including full members of the campaign team.
However, findings reveal that the method to be adopted had been outlined by the immediate past national chairman of the APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegunled National Working Committee (NWC) which had earlier budgeted N14.82 billion.
The APC, in a memo presented to its national caucus on February 26, 2018, titled, ‘Financial report for 2016, 2017 and Presentation of 2018 Budget to the National Caucus’, earmarked N14.82 billion.
The memo read in part: “Looking ahead to 2018, which is an election year, a lot of activities, ranging from organisation of congresses/primaries, conventions, sensitisation, meetings and campaigns, are expected. The budget must inevitably have to be robust, flexible and capable of being implemented. Bearing this in mind, a budget of N 14.82 billion is being proposed.
“In order to ensure funding stability and respectable budget implementation, membership contribution has been identified as crucial. Accordingly, a framework to deploy electronic payment system that assures convenience, transparency and ease of reconciliation of payment has been designed. This system allows the use of airtime to pay the monthly N100 membership dues by members while bigger payment can be transacted through banking channels customised for the party in all banks.”
In 2015, Buhari took campaign fundraising to Facebook, asking Nigerians to give sacrificially for his presidential campaign into dedicated bank accounts.
Buhari support groups had reportedly raised about N118million, saying the funds came through the sale of N100 scratch cards and direct donations.
Former APC national treasurer, Alhaji Bala Mohammed Gwagwarwa, said the party would source the funds through nomination fees (N5.86 billion), fundraising (N3.45 billion}, membership dues (N4.2 billion), sale of party cards (N1.0 billion) and levies on elected/appointed office holders (N0.304 billion).
On his part, the spokesman of the Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation, Mr. Segun Showunmi told Daily Trust on Sunday that the PDP would raise campaign funds through legitimate means. He, however, did not give any breakdown.
“The campaign of the PDP candidate will follow the norms, rules of campaign funding and other expected rules. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will fulfil his obligation. Whatever is required of him, he will definitely make it available. The goodwill that follows him is so enormous that I don’t think he would be funding the campaigns directly from his pocket.
“The commitment Nigerians have shown is very heavy. You can see that some groups came together and bought the expression of interest and nomination forms for him and some people are doing souvenirs, some people are buying air time, some people are providing logistics.
“So everybody is interested in the campaign and it is a movement everyone wants to be deeply involved in. I don’t see any reason it will not be well funded within the limit of what the law says,” he said.
On whether the party would organise fundraising as it did prior to the 2015 general elections, the campaign spokesman said it was very typical of every political party to organise fundraising and it is incumbent on the PDP to do the same thing.
The national financial secretary of the PDP, Alhaji Abdullahi Maibasira, said the party would also embark on issue-based and
rigorous campaigns in order to reclaim power in 2019.
Asked whether the party would also depend on its governors for campaign funds, Maibasira said: “As far as you are a member of the party you are entitled to certain privileges, and those privileges cut across board; whether they are your support to the party in financial terms or in terms of mobilisation. In any form, you have the right to vote and be voted for.”
One of the strategic means through which the PDP raised its funds prior to the 2015 general elections was a fundraising dinner which took place at the Presidential Villa. The party raised N21. 27billion.
Buhari, Atiku, target battleground states
The chairman of INEC, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, has put the current number of registered voters for the 2019 election at 84,271,832 which surpasses the 67.4m registered voters recorded in 2015.
Although there are 47 candidates for the presidential seat in 2019, many Nigerians believe it is going to be a straight fight between President Buhari and Atiku, going by the popularity of the two candidates.
Unlike in 2015 when the two major contestants for the presidency, Buhari and former President Goodluck Jonathan were from two different regions, this time around, the battle is between two northerners from North-West and North-East.
Less than 50 per cent of the voting population turned out for the presidential election in 2015, and if the voters’ turnout in 2019 follows the 2015 pattern, it means that only half of the registered voters may participate in the presidential poll. But analysts believe there is increased sensitisation across the six geopolitical zones, a development that may likely encourage more people to go out and vote.
In 2015, Buhari emerged victorious after polling 15.4million votes against Jonathan’s 12.8m. In 2011, Jonathan had garnered 22.4m votes to defeat Buhari who got 12.2m.
An analysis by Daily Trust on Sunday on the strengths and weaknesses of the major candidates vis a vis the popularity of their political parties across the country, shows that there would be serious battle between Buhari and Atiku in 13 states, spreading across five out of the six geopolitical zones.
It will be a fight-to-finish in the whole of the six South-West states, namely Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, and Oyo, as well as in three out of the six states of the North-Central, namely Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa. The contest for the votes in two out of the six states of the North-East - Adamawa and Taraba - would be a serious battle between Buhari and Atiku.
Aside Akwa Ibom and Edo in the South-South that are expected to be battlegrounds going by the latest political happenings in the two oil-rich states, the remaining 23 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) would be an easy ride for either Buhari or Atiku, all things being equal.
Between 2015 and now, the APC and PDP had traded six states during the off season gubernatorial elections held after the 2015 general elections.
While the APC voted out PDP in Kogi, Ondo and Ekiti states, three governors: Samuel Ortom (Benue), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto) have dumped the APC and rejoined the PDP; a development that changed the calculations of the two parties.
Analysts believe that for some obvious reasons, voters in many states would most likely vote for candidates from different political parties during the presidential and gubernatorial elections; meaning that some who might vote for the PDP presidential candidate may not likely vote for the APC’s candidate, and vice versa.
The South-East never supported Buhari, and findings reveal that the situation might not likely change this time around.
An indication to this effect emerged on Wednesday when Igbo leaders under various partisan and non-partisan groups openly endorsed the candidacy of Atiku and his running mate, Peter Obi.
The leaders of the Ohaneze Ndigbo, led by Professor Ben Nwabueze, Igbo leaders of thought, the political elite, the intelligentsia, women groups amongst others, premised their endorsement on Atiku’s promise of restructuring. Although the group later denied the endorsement.
However, the Zikist-Buharist Movement (ZBM) promptly advised Professor Nwabueze and the rest to desist from putting all the Igbo eggs in one political basket by opting for Atiku in the 2019 presidential election.
In a statement by the acting secretary, Godwin Onwusi, the pro-Buhari movement recalled that when a similar situation came up in 2015, the highest Igbo sociocultural organisation, Ohaneze Ndigbo, opted for Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP and it “turned out to be a fatal decision for Ndigbo as a nation to put our eggs in one basket.”
Atiku is expected to defeat President Buhari in Abia State, where the PDP won the presidential election on many occasions.
Despite having the likes of Ogbonnaya Onu, a former governor of the state in 2015, President Buhari only got 13,394 votes in the state while Jonathan thrashed him with 368,803 votes.
With the combination of Onu, who is now the Minister of Science and Technology and Orji Uzor Kalu, a former governor of the state, it is believed that Buhari may get the required 25 per cent while Atiku will have his way.
The running mate of the PDP candidate, Peter Obi, hails from Anambra State, and with the dust raised by his selection now settled, it seems they would clear the state with a wide margin. In 2015, Jonathan polled 660,762 in the state as against Buhari’s 17,926 votes.
Abia and Anambra scenarios are expected to play out in the three other states of the South-East, namely Enugu, Imo and Ebonyi. The thinking of an average Igbo man/woman about the person of Buhari remains skewed, not even the construction of gigantic projects and appointment of key South easterners has changed it.
In the whole of the SouthEast in 2015, Buhari polled 198,248 votes while Jonathan got 2,464,906. The hope of the APC in the South-East was Imo State until the recent crisis that engulfed the party over the governorship candidate. The battle now is between Governor Rochas Okorocha and the national chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomhole. The internal wrangling may negatively affect the outing of Buhari in the state.
Out of the 1,028,551 votes cast in Akwa Ibom in 2015, President Buhari got only 58,512, while Jonathan polled 953,304.
To change the tide in Buhari’s favour, all eyes are on Senator Godswill Akpabio, who recently switched camp to the APC. Akpabio, alongside the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udo Udoma and other top politicians in the APC from Akwa Ibom, need extra efforts to deliver the state to Buhari.
Bayelsa is the home state of former President Jonathan who was defeated by Buhari in 2015. This will play a vital role in determining the winner of the presidential poll in the state.
The state has been a PDP zone since 1999 with Seriake Dickson as incumbent governor. In 2015, Buhari got only 5,196 votes while Jonathan 361,209.
Comrade Adams Oshiomhole ended the reign of PDP in Edo State in 2008 when he emerged as the governor of the state on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). He won his second term and succeeded in installing Godwin Obaseki as his successor. Although he was unable to deliver the state to Buhari in 2015, it is expected that Oshiomhole as current national chairman of the APC, would fight hard to deliver this time.
Usani Usani, Minister of Niger Delta, Emmanuel Uduaghan, a former governor of Delta State and Rotimi Amaechi, the transport minister and others are expected to deliver Cross River, Delta and Rivers states respectively.
But the three states are seen as the strongholds of the PDP, except for the defection of Amaechi to the APC in 2014.
In 2015, Buhari got 69,638 votes in Rivers State while Jonathan polled 1.4m when Amaechi was governor.
With the oracle of Delta politics, James Ibori still maintaining the front burner, it would be a tug-of-war for President Buhari to win the state. The Minister of State for Petroleum, Ibe Kachikwu seems to be far from the political field in the state.
With the exception of Adamawa and Taraba states, the four other states in the North-East geopolitical zone, namely Borno, Bauchi, Gombe and Yobe states are traditionally Buhari states.
Buhari had had good outings in the region in 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015. The relative successes recorded in the fight against insurgency, coupled with the ‘juicy’ appointments given to the region, are Buhari’s selling points in the area.
Mrs. Aisha Buhari, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha, the Chief of Staff, Abba Kyari, the National Security Adviser, Babagana Monguno, the Chief of Army Staff, Tukur Buratai and the acting chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Ibrahim Magu, are from the region.
In the zone, Adamawa and Taraba states are going to be political battlegrounds. The flagbearer of the PDP, Atiku, who played a key role in the emergence of Governor Jibrilla Bindow, is from Adamawa.
In Taraba, the defection of Aisha Alhassan will no doubt affect the chances of the APC. Mama Taraba, who was the candidate of the APC in 2015, has since picked the ticket of the United Democratic Party (UDP) following her disqualification for the APC ticket.
In the South-West, Buhari made headway in 2015 with Tinubu and other leaders of the zone as he garnered 2.4million votes while Jonathan had 1.8m.
With Tinubu’s commitment to the Buhari project and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, it is expected that the president would make good outing in the area.
The appointment of SouthWest persons into key positions, construction of gigantic projects, the declaration of June 12 as Democracy Day, among others, are working in Buhari’s favour.
The South-West states, namely Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Oyo and Ekiti are considered as swing states in the coming polls.
Out of the six states of the North-Central, Buhari lost Nasarawa and Plateau to Jonathan in 2015 elections. He, however, won Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Niger states.
The farmers/herders clashes in some of the states, coupled with the defection of Senate President Bukola Saraki, Benue and Kwara states governors, will work against Buhari in 2019.
The seven North-West states are no-go-areas for the presidential candidate of the PDP as he will need to work extra to get 25 per cent of the total votes cast in the zone.
Buhari got the bulk of his votes from Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara states in 2015. The defection of Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, the governor of Sokoto State, may not make much impact come February 16, next year.
Former President Jonathan won the FCT in 2015 with 157,195 votes as against Buhari’s 146,399. It is expected that Buhari, as a sitting president, would win the area.