Conspiracy theories trailing INEC’S postponement of presidential election
NOTHING best explains the anticlimax that occurred on election morning at exactly 2:45a.m. than a deflated balloon.
Like a pin punched to a balloon, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, broke the heart of millions across the world with the following words: “Following a careful review of the implementation of its logistics and operational plan and the determination to conduct free, fair and credible elections, the Commission came to the conclusion that proceeding with the elections as scheduled is no longer feasible.”
The words that followed didn’t matter any longer. For those who denied sleep to lay a burning rumour to rest, “no longer feasible” was all they needed to confront their worst fears, that the ‘fake news’ that started flying around since 10:00p.m. on the eve of the election was indeed true. It was now official, five hours to the commencement of the first rounds of general elections, that the exercise had been extended by seven days.
The decision left many aghast, particularly the over 84 million Nigerians registered to vote. Those who missed the heartbreak moment at midnight woke up numb in the morning with a sense of déjà vu that the hopes of a nation could be thwarted “based on logistics”, a phrase Big Brother Naija (BBN) winner, Efe, popularized.
At what point did INEC logistics and operational plan go awry? The answer to this question has spurned several spins and a feast of conspiracy theories. The official explanation of INEC for the postponement was a parallel line to the tough-talking stance of Prof. Yakubu.
It was like the British passenger liner, the unsinkable RMS Titanic, which after it had been built, its builder, Thomas Andrew, allegedly boasted that not even God could sink the ship. But the Titanic sank in the North Atlantic Ocean in her maiden voyage from Southampton to New York City on April 15, 1912, killing more than 1,500 passengers, same way, the INEC boss had not only sounded surefooted about the sanctity of last Saturday’s election but had gone ahead to forecast and assign dates for general election cycles for the next 36 years.
As far back as March 1, 2018, barely a year to the general elections, in a sort of chest thumping parade, Yakubu released the timetable for elections from 2019 to 2055 during a meeting with the chairmen of political parties in Abuja. According to INEC’S arrangement, the general elections from 2019 to 2055 will hold in two days respectively as opposed to the proposal of the National Assembly to hold election in three days. He had said then that in other developed democracies, the dates for elections were fixed, adding that it was time for Nigeria to follow suit.
However, for the third successive general elections, INEC failed to keep its oft-repeated promise of “we’re ready”. With the official reason somewhat lame to be plausible, spinners and conspiracy theorists from both camps of the two leading parties went into overdrive, dishing out their versions of believable possible reasons.
Uche Secondus, the national chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) accused INEC of working hand-inglove with the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), because of imminent defeat. The APC, in return, accused INEC of acting out PDP’S agenda. In fact, the APC national chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, had three days to the election accused INEC of working for the PDP.
Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential candidate, said it was the “hand of Esau and voice of Jacob”, accusing APC of being behind the poll shift, while President Muhammadu Buhari, who had relocated to his country home in Daura, Katsina State, said: “I was told of the decision of INEC at about 4:45a.m. On social media, APC supporters wondered why PDP followers already tweeted that the elections would be shifted at a time other Nigerians did not have any inkling.
Of the multitude of theories flying across social media, about four or five stand out, which are: INEC was pressured by the international community to resist staggered elections; the ruling party, APC, sensing defeat, sabotaged INEC logistics; PDP colluded with INEC to sabotage the ruling government as another of its Dubai agenda; and that the international community hacked into INEC database to rig the election for a favoured candidate.
The first theory, suspected to be coming from the PDP, is that the APC wanted INEC to conduct “staggered elections” in which only 26 states would vote on Saturday while elections would be postponed in 10 states. The presidential poll would be declared inconclusive. Based on the pattern of results, APC, using federal might, would then deploy full security and financial resources to the remaining 10 states to suppress PDP’S votes and claim victory.
This strategy, according to the conspiracy theory, was used effectively by the APC in Osun State where the governorship election was declared inconclusive after the opposition PDP was clearly leading. Voting was allegedly suppressed in the run-off and APC eventually carried the day. This theory says the United States of America (US), United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), sensing what APC wanted to do, mounted pressure on the INEC chairman, not to stagger the elections but shift them to a date on which every state could vote simultaneously.
The second theory is that APC leaders met in Abuja on Wednesday and concluded that the elections were not looking good for them. This was after, according to the stories, sources close to the Presidency revealed that the National Security Adviser (NSA) had studied all security reports and voter numbers with global analysts and ar- rived at the conclusion that President Buhari would not win the elections if they where held on Saturday. The president was then advised to postpone the elections by five weeks citing security issues in Northern Nigeria particularly the security unrest in Zamfara State and the recent attack on the Borno State governor’s convoy by Boko Haram insurgents.
Security agencies and other government agencies were directed to sabotage the election, thus paving the way for INEC offices and card readers to be burnt, the theorists allege. They further claim that working with INEC insiders, the APC made sure materials did not get to some locations ahead of Saturday so that elections would not hold simultaneously across the country. According to sources, the Federal Government had directed sister agencies like the police, navy, army, and NEMA not to release their aircrafts to INEC for the deployment of materials.
Many had thought the sudden announcement of a national broadcast on Thursday by the president was to adduce reasons for the postponement, but it turned out to be a last attempt by the president to sell himself to Nigerians. Those who believe in this theory also link it to the earlier theory that but for the international community, INEC would have gone ahead with staggering the elections.
Another theory emerged that faced with the reality that most pre-election opinion polls did not favour them, the