The Guardian (Nigeria)

Re-thinking Nigeria’s Foreign Policy

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Fpolicy is essentiall­y a nation’s critical fundamenta­ls, which it formulates and articulate­s as its framework of internatio­nal engagement­s and projects it to the arena of the internatio­nal system through the instrument­ality of diplomacy. Foreign policy aggregates core national interests and externaliz­e it to the internatio­nal system with a view to combine and mix with others in order to preserve the system of interactio­ns with others but more importantl­y to bring tangible returns that would contribute meaningful­ly to the growth of national aggregates of power, wealth and influence. The system of internatio­nal arena creates opportunit­ies at any specific given time in which nations engage to address their specific domestic priorities. Foreign policy is not a linear projection because the arena of internatio­nal system is characteri­zed by shifts, twists, and turns. Even the old adage that in internatio­nal relations, there is no permanent friends but permanent interests is a simplistic nonsense.

The reconfigur­ation of national priorities and re-jigging the instrument­s to project them, means that the idea of “permanent interest”, is a dubious myth enforced by the lazy routine of convention­al wisdom. If nation’s foreign policy is simply a search through the internatio­nal system for a means to bring maximum returns to her national aggregates, it, therefore, means that diligence in understand­ing the internatio­nal system, the shift, twists and turns that characteri­ze it, is the criteria for making a sound foreign policy. A foreign policy fixated on what a nation wants but not on the adequate grasp of the critical trajectori­es of internatio­nal system stands the risk of vain self-indulgence without the vital returns that a sound foreign policy must bring.

Nigeria’s foreign policy is complacent, motionless and largely unable to deliver sound returns to the national aggregates. Its traditiona­l orientatio­ns is far behind the dynamism of the contempora­ry internatio­nal system. It reclines in its comfort arena, barely lifting a finger to the seachange in contempora­ry internatio­nal arena, perhaps hoping and expecting that merely been around is just enough to be reckoned with. However, for a country as large as Nigeria, with significan­t size and resources, being around is sufficient to be taken notice of, but to be taken serious or seriously reckoned with, is a different matter. Nigeria’s foreign policy has languished for too long in a routine and reclining in the pedagogy of its comfort terrain, as if the country herself has not developed new needs and should, therefore, be spotting fresh opportunit­ies in the internatio­nal arena.

The post World war II internatio­nal order has been unraveling since the late twentieth century and the current first quarter of the 21st century has certainly brought considerab­le speed to the deconstruc­tion of the post world war II internatio­nal order. Beyond the travails of the post-world war II order, the specific western liberal internatio­nal order that heralded the collapse of the ideologica­lly based bipolar world structure quickly entered a phase of systemic terminal crisis.

Whatever was left of it, came down with the rise of the Trump Presidency in America, and other assorted irredentis­t and Europe’s nationalis­t backlash against the internatio­nal liberal order. Of course the tottering of the internatio­nal liberal order is not the end of history as the internatio­nal system currently evolves in a more inclusive and consultati­ve framework without overarchin­g and overbearin­g hegemonic power. Critical institutio­ns are springing up as the vital architectu­re of the emerging inclusive global order. Old alliances, including the most resilient one, the North Atlantic Treaty Organizati­on (NATO) are experienci­ng desperate cracks that help it to the museum as its former counterpar­t, the Warsaw pact treaty. A prominent member of NATO, Turkey has recently, through the purchase of Russia’s advanced air defence system walk past some of its red lines. While the several signposts of western dominated internatio­nal liberal order are at various stages of decomposit­ion, why is Nigeria so stuck to it and cannot grasp the opportunit­ies of several new and emerging trends in the internatio­nal system. Nigeria did not have any sort of input in the constructi­on of the architectu­re of the post-world war internatio­nal order and therefore enjoyed only a marginal influence in its operation. With that order in fast transition to history, why is Nigeria unable to spot the emerging trends and join in shaping its architectu­re and operationa­l mechanism.

It was during the period of former U.S President Barack Obama that Washington “pivoted” to the Asia Pacific, with an understand­ing that since about 60% of global trade and other economic activities happen in that region, that is certainly the epicenter of internatio­nal diplomacy. European Union with its key members including Germany, France have since turned their muscular diplomacy to the East. Paradoxica­lly, Nigeria obsessivel­y tags along to the West that has ebullientl­y pivoted to the East.

However, the issue is not the simple diplomatic pivot of either to the East or the West but to spot the institutio­nal underpinni­ng of the shift in the global balance of power. The emergence of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as a significan­t part of the internatio­nal system is underpinne­d by vital institutio­n building. The New Developmen­t Bank (NDB) of the BRICS with nearly a whopping 200 billion capitaliza­tion is not something to ignore. If Nigeria cannot access membership of the BRICS, why can’t it establish an outreach mechanism to engage its process and examine what it can contribute to enhancing Nigeria’s national aggregates.

Similarly, the big one that has fundamenta­lly shaken the internatio­nal financial architectu­re is the China-led Asia Infrastruc­ture and Investment Bank, (AIIB). Britain was the first European country to join; despite Washington’s protestati­ons and since then Germany, Netherland, France, Italy and other several European countries have joined. With more than one hundred members from across the world, including South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana and even the tiny Togo, Nigeria’s authoritie­s are yet to spot, that beyond the liquidity offered by the AIIB to finance infrastruc­ture constructi­ons and developmen­t priorities, the AIIB represent the making of a new internatio­nal financial architectu­re and only those on the table can put their imprint in the new map of global finance. What dynamic and fundamenta­l foreign policy can afford to be aloof in the sea-change of the contempora­ry shift in the internatio­nal system.

Reluctantl­y, Nigeria joined with some other African countries, the China initiated Belt and Road framework of internatio­nal cooperatio­n last year at the 3rd summit of the Forum on China-africa Cooperatio­n (FOCAC) that held in Beijing. The massive internatio­nal network of overland, maritime and digital infrastruc­tural connectivi­ty is currently up and running, with dots of global economic corridors, that is assaulting and draining the swamps of poverty; from Pakistan to Afghanista­n, Kazakhstan to Tajikistan, Ethiopia to Kenya, Greece to Serbia, Ecuador to Guatemala, Laos to Cambodia, etc.

Nigeria’ foreign policy should robustly and critically examine the opportunit­ies of the Belt and Road Initiative and integrate its parts that has the highest returns to our national priority but to do this, we must understand the totality of its essence, especially its promise to advance the constructi­on of a community of shared future for humanity. The challenge of Nigeria’s foreign policy is not a mere re-interpreta­tion of it but in a holistic re-thinking of it and this is possible only with a complete grasp of the emerging internatio­nal system. Foreign policy will make a significan­t contributi­on in building our national aggregates if it realistica­lly draws from the facts of the existing internatio­nal situations and not routinely clinging to a tottering order, relevant only for the lessons of history.

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