2023 Presidential election: A dance on the edge of the cliff

AHEAD of the 2023 Presidential election, never in Nigerian history have the people been so confronted with an intriguing nightmare. The uncertainly that faces the country is as real as the potential peril associated with the forthcoming election. One thing is clear: The ruling class, dominated by the Fulani ethnic group, a small fraction being Kanuri, appear to insist on handing over power to its rookie, a President that will dance to the whims and wishes of this tiny but powerful group. Who should blame them? Let us face it, since 1914 when the ethnic groups in Nigeria were forcefully merged, the political contest for control of power and resources have been largely between the ancient ethnic nations mainly Hausa, Yoruba, Fulani, Ijaw, Tiv and Igbo. In reality, Nigeria was created not out of the love for the people, but basically for British economic interest. It was in the bid to protect British trade and property that the then British Prime Minister, Palmerson picked John Beecroft as the Consul in 1849, which spearheaded the peacemeal colonisation of existing independent nations. Today, of the major ethnic groups, the Fulani ruling elite have had upper hand since the country’s independence.

Gaining and sustaining power is not about education or the number of certificates acquired, all over the world power has been secured and sustained through the control of the instruments of coercion which is a country’s security architecture.

Let us concede: The Fulani ethnic group, which had inherited some powers since 1804 Jihad, later sustained by the British, is not a novice. Though with little education in the Western sense, small in population and usually tiny in physique, an underestimation of the Fulani political prowess is dangerous, while over- estimation of its dexterity is a fleeting illusion. From 1500 when Hausaland was besieged by the Tuaregs, Arabs and Berbers, the Fulani were less known in this hemisphere until the 1804 Jihad which completely erased old things and reshaped the history of West Africa.

The Fulani have remained a dynamic transmitter of cultures and politics and have played prominent roles in the emergence or destruction and building of empires since helping the Arabs to famish Sarakoli of Wokoro in Ghana, driven out from Senegal and Niger by the Tuaregs in 1050, sold to slavery by Sonni Ali of Songhay, built the Uthman Dan Fodio Empire and have increased their once tiny population in Nigeria since the beginning of the 20th century.

Today, the Fulani are just 7 per cent of Nigeria’s population but dictates the political economy at least by 60 per cent. Power has been one of the greatest things sought by the Fulani, knowing that with political domination, every other thing follows. In this pursuit, power is to be attained by all means possible.

Sociologists ascribe to them ‘ decorous, polite, of great fortitude of bearing tremendous pain or affliction without showing’ any pain. There is a proverb in Fulfude that if a Fulani man stands his two feet on a red hot iron, the anguish would not be written on his or her face. They are reputed to be patient and diplomatic in statecraft. These attributes may have helped them to sustain the stronghold on Nigeria, but for how long will a system that fuels anguish and poverty reign? Yet, as the 2023 elections approach, from all indications, it is easy to predict that the Fulani will produce the next President of Nigeria, from either of the mainstream political parties. This is not about President Mohammadu Buhari, but about a time honoured culture of a people hell bent on shaping the form and character of Nigerian politics. That they will determine who becomes the next President has less to do with what Nigerians want or desire, but more to do with precedence, capacity to control and manipulate existing national structures, primordial organisation for a common goal, availability of funds and the strategic positions they have occupied before and after 1999. The 27 years of military rule, when might was right, has been used to change the political and economic landscapes of Nigeria to the extent that Presidential elections in the next 100 years will be determined by them boosted by skewed existing laws- mostly military decrees, delineation of wards, local governments and polling units, states, created by military fiat.

At present, the Fulani ethnic group is negotiating from the position of strength. Apart from controlling state security apparatus, her people control illicit weapons in the hands of non- state actors leaving others at their mercy.

Since 2015, the group has consolidated on the brief setbacks suffered between 1999 and 2015, when for 16 years, it had only a brief spell under Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua. Again, the APC was deliberately weakened by the Cabal, reduced to a martial structure where decisions are taken by a few people. Who took the decisions that the nomination forms should be N100 million? Who took the decision that former President Goodluck Jonathan should be invited to contest? Where are the minutes of the meeting?

The question then comes to mind: Where will the next President come from and how? Before providing an answer, it is important to state that who becomes the President is crucial for the single reason that the position of the President of Nigeria is arguably one of the most powerful seats in the world, given the authority associated with its nature, characterized by over concentration of executive functions in the hands of a single person. We ask: Will power move to the South? In the South West, there are high expectations by the ruling elite that the zone should produce the next President. In 2014, the region provided funds, logistics, a mass- driven tactical campaign that brought in President Buhari. Its greatest error was to concede to an MOU without the signature of the main partner. The South West leaders formed an alliance without terms and conditions, without a written document and without any sense of history, but based on trust that was never proven. From all indications, the hope of the South West producing the next President is dim, due to a combination of the zone’s tactical blunders and the surgical calculation of the Northern ruling elite to set the zone against itself, a feat already achieved with a trophy. In Ogun State alone, there are four aspirants, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, Senator Ibikunle Amosu and former Speaker, Hon Dimeji Bankole. The South West also has Dr Kayode Fayemi, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu making six aspirants in total. It should be understood that none of the aspirant would have sought the ticket without gaining the confidence of the Presidency and members of Buhari’s kitchen cabinet, indicating that the cabal may have deliberately given the nod, with strong but futile promises, to each of them, albeit privately and stealthily, knowing it was the best way to fuel the intra- personal and regional contradictions among them.

From all indications, the Fulani ruling class, and its ‘ yes men’ appear to be weighing many options with the same goal of sustaining their time honoured privileges and to ensure Fulani total relevance beyond 2023 or what Chief Olusegun Obasanjo described as the Fulanisation of Nigeria. The plots for the survival and control of Nigeria by the ruling Cabal are many. Nothing suggests they care about the trauma of the masses. One plot is to nail or neutralize the agitation for the break- up of the country currently being championed by the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra, ( IPOB). This may have informed the extension of the tickets to some Igbo leaders including Rotimi Amaechi and the Governor of the Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele, who is from Agbor, Delta State. Emefiele is Igbo, but with only a strand in the tap root of the Igbo mainstream heritage. His wife is Yoruba. Emefiele himself speaks Yoruba fluently.