2023 Presidential Election: Frontrunners and Pretenders

For a wobbling system that generates news at the go, the Nigerian political space has managed to steal the show and may likely dominate headlines in newspapers, radio and television platforms, as well as the new media for the next one month as political parties struggle to meet the June 3, 2022 deadline set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the submission of the list of candidates for the 2023 general election.

All kinds of politicians have crawled out of their comfort zones and they are seeking the attention of the public, to be counted among those that would likely pull Nigeria from mass poverty, insecurity, unemployment, decayed infrastructure and transform the country into a place where tribes and tongues may differ, but the people will continue to stand together in socio-economic and political brotherhood.

Just as the aspirants are multiplying, so have mushroom political parties, which have been dormant for the past years, now see a chance to be seen and heard as some ambitious politicians solicit their platforms to pursue their aspirations. It is another way of saying that the two major parties, the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are the key contestants for power in 2023: Apart from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) that is currently governing Anambra State, the APC and PDP share the remaining 35 states between them. The governors, members of the National Assembly, members of the state houses of assembly and local government councils are shared between them.

It is therefore not for nothing that most of the aspirants jostling to obtain their party’s presidential tickets are from the two major parties, with the remaining 16 political parties feeding on the leftovers by way of defectors from the major parties.

SETTING THE PACE

Currently, the APC and PDP are working with the same template to capture power in 2023. Apart from sourcing their National Chairman from the same North-Central geo-political zone (APC’s Senator Abdullahi Adamu from Nasarawa State and PDP’s Senator Iyorchia Ayu from Benue State), they are also strongly thinking of using the consensus option to choose their presidential candidates.

APC

The governing APC boxed itself into a corner with the promise of a zoning formula in late 2018 and early 2019. Shortly before the February 2019 general election, the Secretary to Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha, travelled to Imo State where he solicited votes from the South-East in return for the presidential ticket in 2019. Similarly, in that year Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was in the palace of the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi. Canvassing votes, he said the South-West had been positioned for the presidency in 2023.

With subsequent developments, such as terrorism, which has rendered a large part of the North ungovernable under the Muhammadu Buhari administration, the zonal formula has gained so much traction that no formidable aspirant from the North has joined the 15 aspirants that are on the party’s platform so far. But here lies the problem. The North will want to cede power on its own terms to a candidate whose loyalty will not be in doubt.

That is where the consensus option comes in. According to THEWILL investigation, President Buhari and his Aso Rock minders are working day and night to use consensus to get their preferred presidential candidate for the party, more so, after they have decided they do not want somebody like Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, perceived as too independent-minded. They fear that he can outsmart them if the contest is allowed to play out on a level playing field.

For the President, the first major success with that consensus formula was its use in picking the National Chairman of the party, Adamu, at the party’s recent convention in Abuja.

The second major success was what a top party source called “palace coup,” which took place last Wednesday during the meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC), a day after the 19 governors of the party met with President Buhari in the Aso Rock Villa.

The governors, who wield big powers in the party through funding, control of delegates and power of numbers, had stood their ground that indirect primary be used at the Presidential convention. Buhari conceded but the next day, he was able, as party leader, to arm-twist the NEC, comprising governors, state chairmen, principal officers of the National Assembly and some ex-official members, to cede powers to the Adamu-led National Working Committee, NWC, for the next 90 days.

During that period, the convention would have taken place, candidates would have been picked for the party and the grace period for the replacement of candidates would have elapsed. During those days, Adamu would have had enough time to shuttle between his Wuse-Abuja Blantyne Street Office and the Villa, meeting and taking instructions only from Buhari.

Even so, THEWILL learnt that they have also perfected a fall back option to push the consensus plan through intimidation. If indirect primary wins that day, the ballots would be marked in such a way that it would be easy to identify those who voted against the President’s choice, said a source close to the presidency.

Recall a read my lips, flippant speech that Adamu delivered at the Wednesday NEC meeting during which he blamed past and current governors for the prevailing crisis in the party.

With the stage set, the front running aspirants from the party can be reduced to six from the 15 that have expressed interest so far.

APC FRONTRUNNERS VS PRETENDERS

As at the time of going to press, the 15 presidential aspirants on the platform of APC are Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; former Lagos Governor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; former President Goodluck Jonathan; Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele; Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State; former Senate President, Kenneth Nnamani; Mr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim; Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State; Minister of Labour and Employment, Senator Chris Ngige; Senator Rochas Okorocha, Ibinabo Joy Dokubo, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State and former Ogun State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.

FRONTRUNNERS

Among the 15 aspirants, the major frontrunners in terms of visibility, clout and war chest are VP Osinbajo, Tinubu, Amaechi, Emefiele and Jonathan.

OSINBAJO

By virtue of his office and the nationwide attention that followed his declaration, Osinbajo should ordinarily be considered a major contender for the party's ticket but this is not the case. The Aso Rock click and President Muhammadu Buhari are not disposed to his presidential ambition.

Political watchers believe the Vice President is however being supported to challenge and unsettle his now estranged political godfather, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who had earlier declared his presidential bid.

With Governor Abdullahi Bello of Nasarawa State coordinating his aspiration among governors, former Governor Kabiru Gaya of Kano State coordinating his campaign and former Senate Chief Whip, Senator Sola Adeyeye, working on senators, making inroads among delegates would be easy for him if the party adopts indirect primary at its convention.

The manner Osinbajo briefly used presidential power when he served as acting president during the first term of this administration endeared him to many Nigerians but it also did a lot of political damage to his ties with President Buhari and his very close associates and advisers. THEWILL notes that the vice president did not play any significant role in the emergence of new officers in the newly constituted national executive of the party. How Osinbajo navigates this power play will determine his chances at the primary.

TINUBU

The major obstacle on the path of the former Lagos governor’s ambition to clinch the party presidential ticket is President Buhari and his very close associates who have the ears. They do not want Tinubu to take over from Buhari. Yet on a level playing field, Tinubu would most likely be the contender to beat. His clout, war chest and visibility from years of amassing stupendous wealth from Lagos State government, financing and manipulating elections for cronies across political parties is legendary and sufficient to get him support. But in Nigeria’s political zero sum game and deadly godfathers, the Buhari factor is a herculean task for Tinubu.

GOODLUCK JONATHAN

Until the APC presidential convention holds and former President Goodluck Jonathan’s name is missing on the party’s convention ballot, it would be difficult to rule out his aspiration, if not candidacy through consensus as exclusively reported by this newspaper many months ago. A source close to Jonathan confided in THEWILL that the former President was initially wary of the request of associates of Buhari to run on the party’s ticket, but he appears to be ready to throw his hat in the ring in the coming days only if he gets the nod of the president.

The source said, “There are two reasons why they want Jonathan. He fits the prescription of the conservative cabal who want power retained in the North. They prefer a benign Jonathan who will serve for only four years after which power will return to the North again. Secondly, Buhari probably feels like paying back to Jonathan because he never expected the ex-President to hand over to him in 2015. Those are the two reasons.

“But I asked him, Sir, why do you want to run? Now that God has made you a global statesman? He agreed with me. But you see, this presidential thing keeps changing and so you may not be able to have a final say on issues. So he has accepted the request to an extent, but he is not sure if they will not mess him up.”

Last week Jonathan spoke for himself. He was quoted to have told supporters comprising women, youths who besieged his Taraba Close office in Maitama, Abuja, calling on him to join the presidential race: “Yes, you are calling on me to come and declare for the next election. I cannot tell you I’m declaring. The political process is ongoing. Just watch out. The key role you must play is that Nigeria must get somebody that will carry young people along.”

How the APC will sell Jonathan to voters may be problematic because since Buhari defeated him in 2015, his administration has demonized the former president and heaped massive allegations of corruption and theft of billions of dollars on his administration.

GODWIN EMEFIELE

The Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele is one aspirant to watch even though he is yet to openly declare his interest in the presidency. Some highly influential advisers of the president are pushing the candidacy of the foremost economist and banker, an Igbo from the SouthSouth, which blends with the party’s zonal formula for addressing Igbo presidency and clamour for integration in the polity.

Emefiele, who also appears to have the backing of business leaders, is very close to the president and appears to have earned his trust and respect.

Though not a politician, Emefiele is considered the dark horse and has very formidable people selling his candidature to the President and the party’s key decision makers including some influential state governors in the north. He is in the race and stands a good chance of picking the ticket if the president backs him.

ROTIMI AMAECHI

Fortunately for Amaechi, who is also an Igbo from Rivers State, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the Igbo Social Political organisation has identified with his course, notably during the controversial statement on his ‘Igboness,’ made by Joe Igbokwe, a Special Adviser to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on drainage, a Tinubu loyalist and an APC chieftain.

Amaechi, the former governor of Rivers State and current Transport Minister, is another very experienced politician that is very close to President Buhari. He also enjoys the support of some very close associates of the president including First Lady Aisha Buhari and some state governors. He was recently turbanned as the Dan Amanar Daura (the trusted son of Daura) by the Emir of Daura, Buhari’s hometown in Katsina State.