The shocking and humiliating defeat of the Peoples Democratic Party and Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, the party’s vice presidential candidate in the presidential election in the oil-rich state rattled the governor and his supporters and questioned his capacity

Three political parties are visibly in the contest for the governorship. They are the APC with incumbent Governor Babajide-Sanwo-Olu as its candidate; the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, with Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran, alias Jandor, as candidate and Gbadebo Vivour-Rhodes of the LP.

The outcome of the presidential election, won by LP in popular vote of 582,454 as against 572, 606 for APC, though the latter won in 12 out of the 20 local government areas of the state, leaving 8 to LP, has reset the tempo and stage for a fierce governorship contest between the LP and APC.

This is the first time that Lagos, which has been under the control of the party led by Tinubu for the past 23 years, is facing this challenge, a frightening development for the APC.

For this reason, the major gladiators for the crown are the LP candidate and his APC rival, VivourRhodes and Sanwo-Olu, respectively.

Three main factors will determine the outcome of the poll: They are ethnicity, entrenched interests going back to 1999 when the Fourth Republic started and the only party in power was led by Tinubu, and the youths.

As far as ethnicity goes, the main thrust is indigenous not outside the state. Although supporters of the status quo say the battle is between the Igbo and Yoruba, the voting pattern during the presidential election clearly debunks that thinking. The votes won by Obi were evenly spread across the 20 local government areas, even though he triumphed in eight, meaning that Lagos citizens voted massively for a change of the status quo.

The indigenous nature of the ethnic factor is playing out in what is commonly called the Committee of Indigenes of Lagos, CIL, who think somebody of their descent should become governor of the state.

At the rally held for Vivour-Rhodes on Wednesday, March 8, 2023, addressed by the Lagos Chapter Chairman of Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socialpolitical group, Supo Shonibare, the CIL said they were supporting the LP candidate because he was a ‘true Lagosian’. In that context, Sanwo-Olu and his deputy, Hamzat, clearly do not fit in because they hail from Ogun State.

Vivour-Rhodes’s youthful age of 40 and his identification with the #EndSARS protest in Lagos has earned him a large followership among the youthful voting population in Lagos. In fact, many aggrieved youths who had not known this side of him until his social media critics exposed it, have found it easy to transfer their preference for Obi to him.

The factor of entrenched interest is a double-edged sword. They are supporters of the status quo who will throw all that they have into the contest to ensure the old order remains. But this same old order, unfortunately, was the source of the protest vote during the presidential election. So, the target of voters is not Governor Sanwo-Olu per se, but that old, punishing order that has not significantly transformed the state into a cosmopolitan habitat despite the approximately N40 billion monthly revenue earned from taxes.

Even so, THEWILL checks show the LP will put up a good fight despite Sanwo-Olu’s advantage in terms of his achievements, particularly his sacrificial fight against COVID-19, his rise to assist distressed Lagosians, such as during two major pipeline disasters and building collapse incidents, as well as fair and promising strides taken by his administration to ensure infrastructural development in the state. If Peter Obi campaigns heavily in the state and rallies the Obidients for the LP, then the APC will surely be under a whole lot of pressure.

THEWILL projects that the election will be fiercely contested and therefore too close to call.

PDP Win

Senator Uba Sani (APC) Vs Isa Ashiru (PDP)

The PDP’s victory at the Presidential and National Assembly elections in Kaduna State, winning all three senatorial seats and 10 out of the total 16 House of Representatives seats, has spoken loudly about the apparent defeat of the APC in the state. THEWILL checks show that voters have resolved to see the back of Governor Nasir el-Rufai, a myopic and ineffective leader, who many blame for the insecurity that turned the state into a killing field.

To worsen matters, the APC sustained one of the major sources of trouble in the multi-ethnic state, the Muslim-Muslim ticket for the governorship. Thus Senator Uba Sani may find it hard to defeat a one-time state lawmaker and House of Reps member, Isa Ashiru of the PDP in the upcoming poll. Senator Sani however said he is not losing sleep over the PDP victory at the presidential poll. THEWILL Projects a clear win for the PDP.

PDP Win

Dr Nentawe Yilwatda (APC) Vs Caleb Mutsfwang (PDP)

The LP and the PDP had an agreement to support one another in the general election. LP would get the support during the presidential election while the PDP would take its turn during the governorship. As at press time, that agreement was still in place. But with the postponement of the poll till March 18, there is still the possibility that the terms of the alliance may change. However,

Governor Simon Lalongs’s Senatorial defeat at the hands of the PDP shows the extent to which the main opposition party has eaten deep into the territory of the governor.

The battle is therefore drawn between the PDP’s candidate, Caleb Mutsfwang and that of the governing APC, Dr. Nentawe Yilwatda. Given the anti-government sentiments over unpaid pensioners, coupled with an electorate still fuming over the loss of their presidential candidate, Obi, having voted mainly against a Muslim-Muslim ticket, THEWILL projects victory for the PDP candidate.

PDP Win

Governor Seyi Makinde (PDP) Vs Senator Teslim Folarin (APC)

With his co-G5 governors, such as Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State and Samuel Ortom of Benue State having failed to win in the National Assembly election, all eyes are on Governor Seyi Makinde, the remaining PDP group of aggrieved governors contesting in the 2023 general election.

Makinde’s major challenger is Senator Teslim Folarin of the APC, though the Accord Party candidate, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, a scion of the stormy petrel of old Oyo politics in the first and second republic, Adegoke Adelabu, is in contention. A faction of the APC in the state, supporters of late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, are supporting him but the three House of Representatives members elected on the platform of the party on February 25, have offered their support to Folarin, forcing the National Executive Committee of the party to dissolve the local chapter.

Still, the APC triumphed heavily during the presidential poll, winning all three senatorial seats and 8 of the 12 representative seats. Also, some PDP chieftains, aggrieved over Makinde’s G-5 stand, open pre-presidential election support for Tinubu, are lukewarm over his ambition, though he tried to play smart on the eve of the presidential poll when he told supporters to “vote PDP from top to bottom.”

Already, many PDP youths have openly declared support for Senator Folarin, even though a Bola Ahmed Tinubu, BAT, group has thrown their weight behind the governor, giving the contest an interparty colouration that has sharpened the battle line between the two major contestants. Moreover, the LP officials in the state have collapsed the party structure in the state for the governor.

As earlier mentioned, APC is also going into the contests as a divided house. A faction loyal to late Governor Abiola Ajimobi has joined the Accord Party.

With the support of the workers, party stalwarts and the politically active transport union workers over whom the governor maintains a firm grip and the BAT group, THEWILL projects that Makinde will be victorious at the poll.

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PDP Win

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