POLSCOPE 2015 and the Task Ahead
Let me once again, welcome us to Year 2015. Despite the upheavals and uncertainties of the gone year, we managed to cross over. Year 2015 will be a loaded year. There will be so much on our plates this year. Not only because of the general elections of next month, but also because it is a year the alleged doomsday prophecy of John Campell: that Nigeria will break up in 2015, is expected to come to pass. Interestingly however, both the American government and the John Campbell himself have denied breaking the atomization of Nigeria.
But those who gave a thought to the evil prediction had hinged it on the 2015 general elections which many nay prophets had said will make or mar Nigeria. As at today, we are just 42 days away from the great day.
It is a day Nigerians will decide who will lead them as president for another four years. In all sincerity, it is a two-horse race, strictly between President Goodluck Jonathan and Gen Muhammadu Buhari (rtd). While the one represents the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the other represents the aspiring All Progressives Congress (APC). There are a couple of faceless presidential contenders whom we believe, just want to be named as among the also-rans. Neither their names nor their political parties ring even the weakest bell. They will just make up what will turn out as the electoral statistics on the presidential selection.
Already, the campaigns have started. I have not seen much of issues being canvassed by any of the front line candidates.
Gradually but steadily, tension is building up as the days draw near, what with the Armaggedonic boasts of some mafia kings from both camps.
While President Jonathan is struggling hard not to be disgraced and voted out of office, Gen Buhari is striving to ensure that he is not defeated the fourth time at the presidential polls. Nigerians will be the ultimate deciders of who smiles and who weeps between the duo.
But whoever wins, will be stepping into a large arena of problems and issues, something younger people prefer to call challenges.
Perhaps the first task on hand will be how to buoy the Nigerian economy which appears to be heading south. With the Naira gone so low, inflation threatening business transactions, the Excessive Crude Account as well as our Foreign reserve nearly emptied, there is no doubt that the Nigerian economy is in some dire straits, despite claims to the contrary. Worse still, the price of crude oil in the global market has continued to tumble, thus slashing very radically, the projected income to the nation’s treasury.
Those who believe the PDP is a funny political party may have one more reason to believe so. In the just concluded primaries, there have been a plethora of protests. While some are genuinely flowing from the unpredictable surprises from a political contest, others are flowing from clear cases of raw injustice. The case of what is happening in the Borno State chapter of the PDP belongs to the latter category.
Here is the brief storyline: as a result of the security challenges in the state, several meetings to arrive at a consensus candidate for the gubernatorial ticket of the party failed. As a result President Jonathan was said to have intervened by inviting all the stakeholders in the state to a meeting with all the gubernatorial aspirants in tow. Aspirants, before Jonathan, were given some chance to address the audience. And after they all spoke, and presented their credentials—academic and political, the president was said to have gone into some consultations both with party elders and security agencies.
At the end of which, Alhaji Gambo Lawan was chosen by all and sundry at the forum.
But to formalise it, a proper primary election was organised with the INEC officials and other party chieftains present.
Jonathan
It is not for nothing that the Federal and some state governments were unable to pay December salaries to their civil servants.
With the projected drop in the volume of oil export in February, the situation might just worsen.
In an economy where government is the biggest spender, the economic threshold of the nation is bound to shrink with all its concomitant effects.
Another challenge that a Jonathan or Buhari will have to contend with will be the plague called terrorism. The relentless rounds of deadly attacks launched by the Boko Haram insurgents remain a huge threat to the security and territorial integrity of the nation.
The Nigerian military has been struggling to combat the scourge unleashed on the country by the knaves called Boko Haram.
Understandably, the security issue will form a fulcrum of the campaigns, what with the 219 Chibok girls who are still being held by their captors for 264 days now.
Agreater proof of how dicey the security issue is will be whether the elections will hold in the North eastern states of Borno, Adamawa, Yobe and even Gombe. While the first three states have had a huge share of the terrorist attacks, Gombe and even Bauchi have experienced several deadly attacks as
Lawan is an experienced and grassroot politician who had served as Chairman of the Maiduguri Municipal Council before emerging as the National Chairman of defunct Grassroots Democratic Movement (PDM) in the late Abacha’s days. Ever since
Buhari well. In fact, the party primaries in some of the states had to be relocated to Abuja for fear of being attacked by the daring and callous insurgents.
Yet another malaise that will require urgent address is unemployment. The army of unemployed persons is just growing astronomically in the country. It is not for nothing that the younger folks are so bent on leaving the country even to poorer or lesser nations, by any means like swimming or sailing across some water from Morocco to Spain. Many had died either in the sea or the desert trying to escape the economic spikes in the country.
Perhaps nothing demonstrates the pitiable state of unemployment more than the story, few years ago, that a Ph.D holder was among those who applied to be a driver in one of Dangote’s companies. The tragic recruitment exercise of the Nigerian Immigration Service (NIS) of 2013 is another proof of how bad things have become.
With a squeeze in the economy, there is bound to be a ripple effect which could result in companies shutting down and further swelling the glut already being experienced in the labour market.
I expect these to be some of the issues the presidential campaign will focus on. But not yet, perhaps.
Perhaps at the heart of regenerating the economy is the issue of stable or improved electricity supply in the country. For too long, Nigeria seems to have been wallowing in some endless efforts at providing stable electricity.
Even former President Olusegun Obasanjo had conditioned his contest for second term on his success in dealing with the electricity situation. Of course it was the glib talk of politicians, as he very well contested for the second term even when the situation was and still very poor. Twelve years after that promise, we are still battling with stable electricity supply. Nigerians have, too long, been taken for granted on this matter. Electricity is not such a complex engineering that defies our financial and technical abilities
Yes, the energy sector has been privatized, but what has changed is the lexicon of NEPA to the drab talks about DISCOs and GENCOs. Not much light is being beamed, even as they keep threatening to increase tariff.
Needless to say that with stable electricity, the withering Small Scale Enterprises will have a new breath of life and hope.
Any one of the lead candidates who emerges will have to tackle this issue with all the seriousness it deserves. Nigerians have suffered too long on this matter. The starting point is to destroy and scatter the generator-importing cartel which had done many things to frustrate the energy reforms, all for their own selfish gains.
Although almost every Nigerian agrees that corruption is at the root of the nation’s underdevelopment, not much in terms of decisive action has been done by those in authority to deal with the problem which has continued to dwarf the nation’s growth. The Transparency International (TI), has understandably continued to focus on Nigeria, as a major stakeholder in the global corruption network.
Perhaps either for political expediency or for the sheer lack of will power, the Jonathan government has been treating corruption with kid’s gloves. He once made light the issue by saying stealing is not corruption. Glaringly indicted persons remain free and even frolicking around the president. Top government officials who have been indicted do not suffer any upset by the sitting government. It is now worse than business as usual. Just every sector of the economy reeks with corruption. There had been no deliberate determination to follow through any corruption case to the point of jailing convicted persons. The very notorious cases merely get marooned in court and that is where they remain forever.
This is one area, Nigerians will weigh the capacity of Jonathan and Buhari, whom it seems, will suffer no fools gladly on the matter.
However it turns out, tackling the corruption scourge in Nigeria is one task that will need more than ordinary courage to deal with by either Jonathan or Buhari.