Agbaje Confidential: How to Fight APC in Lagos with Change Campaign
The Jimi Agbaje campaign office faces an uphill task in its bid to stare down (at the polls) the massive APC political apparatchik which dominates Lagos like a colossus. To make a mark, or ultimately triumph, it must go beyond the usual conventional political campaign mechanics usually activated by more or less practicing professional politicians operating within the party structure. Rather, the current challenge requires unconventional ideas that will not be in the usual sights of a typical Nigerian political campaign. Mr Jimi Agbaje must thread with caution. Already he has gotten into the usual PDP (and occasionally APC) yab-me-Iyab-you syndrome. Political party spokesmen and their principals turn what is supposed to be rigorous issues driven debates into a soap-box while the rest of us laugh at this needless distraction. A real strategist will try to find out if such activities actually win any votes? Or its just hot air to determine which party can be louder or more abusive than the other. The freshly elected PDP candidate is already trying to fit into this garb, a far cry from the outstanding campaign he ran many years ago by recent abuses against the person of Buhari and Tinubu. By the way sir, you have no business with Buhari. We think there is a better way. This intervention and others like it, seek to establish that politicians and their strategists can achieve greater traction if they find issues that matter to the electorate and devise strong strategies to deploy them.
Mr Jimi Agbaje is a seasoned businessman, entrepreneur, political activist and politician. He earned his spurs over many years of active work with the Yoruba socio-cultural organisation, the Afenifere. He is recognised as a leading progressive who was once in the Action Congress. It is however believed that he left the party because he (Agbaje) was perceived to be too independent for the leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu who was not likely to trust him with the office of Lagos governor(Or so it was alleged). He left to contest under the aegis of the Democratic People’s Alliance (DPA).
He ran a campaign that many saw as most effective, especially from a communications point of view. However, the realities on ground proved his choice of political party to be fatal. He lost to AC’s Fashola who had the formidable backing of a well-structured party behind him. His loss sparked a healthy debate about the likelihood of a real people’s candidate emerging in any important political contest if he lacked a strong party with the structures on ground. This was because he was widely seen as having a good chance at the polls, which turned out to be a fluke. This was eventually blamed on his party, which was a relative neophyte with little on ground in the way of a structure. For a time, he withdrew from party politics and was known to have expressed the sentiment that “No individual can go through that route on his own twice in a lifetime”
He bid his time and waited for another chance. Come 2014, PDP, smarting from three consecutive electoral slayings by Tinubu’s awesome political machinery in Lagos, went shopping for a non-traditional candidate with enough credibility and popularity to bring in the votes. When Jimi Agbaje got the PDP primaries ticket, many people believed that for the first time, the APC (and the ACN before it) which has dominated the Lagos political space since 1999, was going to face its biggest challenge yet. Many people you meet confess that they would love to vote a Jimi Agbaje even if they had issues with the platform. His support base among the adult, literate middle classes is huge. He also has massive following within the core business class, gains from his first attempt and his formidable networking skills in that segment (He is, in many ways, one of them). The fact that he had had a strong campaign before is an advantage. He has powerful brand recall, estimated to be well ahead of his foe, Akinwunmi Ambode. However, as the Yorubas say, the pot that will eat pepper must first have its bottom thoroughly scalded. Defeating the APC in Lagos will not be a tea party by any means.
The candidate of the APC for the Governorship polls in Lagos, Akinwunmi Ambode is a seasoned public servant with a first class intellect. He is a scholar and successful public administrator. His record in public service is unblemished. However, until a few months ago when a massive amount of funds was deployed to introduce him to the public and buoy up his image, he was virtually an unknown entity. His rise is very similar to the rise of the then Babatunde Fashola who suddenly achieved limelight because he was chosen by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Interestingly, just as in the case of Fashola, there was strident opposition to Tinubu’s choice within the Lagos APC family, compelling the party to abandon its usual consensus arrangement and to agree to transparent primaries. True to his reputation, Tinubu delivered his candidate with a wide margin.
Even though there was initial opposition and protests, the usual re-alignments have gone into orbit and it appears the house is now largely back as one with Babatunde Fashola leading the campaign fray for Ambode. Despite this, he faces a clear challenge of establishing an image as his own man. Governor Fashola got his fingers burnt trying to do that during his tenure. Now Ambode will need to be doubly careful not to stir the hornets’ nest. There is reason to believe that he will have to be very cautious on policy issues.
Change is the key word and message of the APC nationwide. Should Agbaje look further for a campaign theme? No! Think about it… Lagos has been under the APC since 1999, just like Nigeria has been under the PDP government since same year. There are contesting views about the performance of both. Our honest view is that the APC has delivered more in Lagos than the PDP at the center despite massive resources. This appears, from research, to be the general belief among the majority of voters in Lagos. However, the argument for change that is taking hold, driven singlehandedly by the APC, is not defining what the change is for. The messages are simple and single-minded, yet powerful: Change. Many people now believe, like the APC, that even if you have been providing good leadership, and you have done so in 16 years; it is now time for us to try another party at the center. More so, as, despite your “great efforts”, Nigeria has not yet become a paradise. That is a very powerful sentiment that the PDP, at the center, does not seem to be taking note of. It is an argument that goes beyond President Goodluck Jonathan, it speaks to the reality that the only thing constant about life is change and that people, sooner or later want change if only for the sake of change. At the center, APC will benefit from that sentiment, irrespective of the ultimate results of the election, conversely, they stand to suffer from the same argument at home in Lagos where the argument can work against them.
Jimi Agbaje must learn about the logic of flowing with the current. Why waste so much money to achieve a different key word registration when both money and time are never going to be enough? He must swim with the current and profit by it. He must adopt the theme of change as his own clarion call too. It will be cheeky, bold and dramatic. It will compel people to examine the proposition of change within the context of Lagos. It will create massive communication challenges for the APC. He must agree with the APC that there is absolutely a need for change in Lagos. He must make this the focus of his campaign. He must scream change in Lagos at every opportunity. All his campaign posters must be marked “Change”. With this theme, gaining traction is easy, he can achieve brand association and even co-ownership in a matter of weeks. And he would then create a huge dilemma for the APC candidate who, as we noted earlier, does not yet have the brand recall of a Jimi Agbaje. In a nation where parties are not clearly defined by their ideological leanings, he will also be creating massive identity problems for the party in Lagos. If you are preaching change, how can you at the same time be against the man who says he agrees with you that change is indeed required and that he indeed represents change in Lagos? The argument will get clumsy for the APC and people may begin to sense insincerity if they oppose the change in Lagos idea, the only beneficiary of that state of confusion will be Agbaje of course.
Focus your energy on Tinubu, Ignore Ambode. The reality is that despite Ambode’s deep pockets, he still has less popularity and brand recall than Agbaje. Of course, that, on its own, means nothing if an election was to be conducted tomorrow. Ambode would be swept to power with the awesome political machinery of the Jagaban in Lagos. So what should be the strategy of Agbaje here? Should he focus on Ambode? The answer is a clear no. Flowing directly from our adopted change strategy, attacking Ambode may not be very productive. In a way, Ambode himself could tell you that he too represents some kind of change. Rather, Agbaje must spend most of his energies and precious little campaign period attacking the establishment. He must focus on the political superstructure that has kicked up Ambode. He must attack APC and its precursors for turning Lagos into a “personal estate”. He must challenge the notion that Tinubu is equal to Lagos and that the Jagaban is invincible. He must utilize the concept of change to attack the successful run of the (AC, ACN and) APC governments in Lagos. He must explain to the masses that both the Tinubu and Fashola governments, and the incoming Ambode government (If elected) are “same of the same”, that they have the same policies, the same attitudes and the same methods. He must select the specific issues that can deliver traction and argue that life can be better with a change!
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s massive media machinery will be forced to fight back, they will have no choice, and that is just great as this will lift him (Agbaje) to that rarified (Yes, Tinubu is rarified) level of engagement and bury Ambode in the ensuing dust. Now this is a very believable direction for people actually equate Tinubu with APC, if not in other places, definitely in Lagos. Attacking Tinubu and his political superstructure makes it possible to remind everyone that Tinubu is the real boss, and Ambode, his “new face”. That will not help Ambode. Ambode will have to carry the baggage of the Tinubu/Fashola heritage. While there are many good things in that heritage, it is not Jimi Agbaje’s job to sell the good ones. He will be focused on showing why they should be sent out now.
The ultimate goal of this strategy is to diffuse the Ambode political persona even before it takes firm shape. By not focusing on Ambode, you relegate him to a grade below you. Of course this also means that Ambode escapes with his white apparel looking squeaky clean. But that’s like a minor officer who is being protected from battle, leaving the field for the “big boys”. By focusing your energies on Tinubu, you move up your image and enjoy the premium mind position he enjoys. You create the impression that you are on equal footing, which is tonic for your image. You borrow from his substantial equity; you add it to your own. People will say, “Whao, Jimi Agbaje is tackling Tinubu”, where will Ambode be by then? Reality: You battle not against Ambode and his team, but against the Jagaban, the ruler of the political space called Lagos…the weapons of this warfare will not be abuses and insults, it will be issues and there are too many to be picked by this challenger.