COMMON FALLACIES ABOUT THE 2015 POLLS

It is not over until it is really over. President Jonathan is contesting as the candidate to beat, argues

There are common grounds on which most Nigerians would readily agree in so far as the 2015 general election is concerned. Among these grounds, nobody disputes that this is going to be one of the closest elections ever fought in Nigeria. The other is the legitimate right of the opposition to seek to wrest power from the incumbent government. Of course, the third premise of unanimity is the ability of the opposition to unite, in its quest to wrest power from the incumbent government. But that is as far as it goes.

The organised effort by some groups to hound President Goodluck Jonathan out of office has been predicated on some common fallacies that do not stand up to the test of logical examination. Goaded by these fallacies, a certain air of arrogance, of imminent victory, pervades the political spectrum. When subjected to critical scrutiny, I do not think that the basis for the expected victory can stand the test of time.

Among the fallacies, at least four can be easily debunked. The first is the charge that Jonathan has not performed. The second is the promise that the All Progressives Congress (APC) as an alternative platform will deliver the good life to Nigerians. The third is the claim by the north that it is its turn to rule. The fourth premise is that Muhammadu Buhari is a better alternative to Jonathan.

For a start, when Jonathan is accused of misrule or incompetence, what comes to mind immediately is to question the premise of his accusers: whether his critics are looking at his performance vis-a-vis any standards or whether he is being assessed in isolation. When one considers the breath-taking improvement in agriculture, the remodeling of our airports, the establishment of 12 new universities, the reinvention of the rail transport system; when one acknowledges the fact that baring the serious security challenge from terror groups in the north east, Jonathan has been able to handle security challenges such as armed robbery and kidnapping; when one considers that, except for the mishap of the past one week, Nigerians no longer queue up periodically at filling stations and that the power situation has indeed improved, with the prospect of stable electricity supply within the next 24 months, it beats the imagination that any objective assessor could pass a vote of no confidence on the president.

Perhaps the most ludicrous premise is the contention that the APC, as presently constituted, presents a credible alternative to the PDP; that under Buhari’s leadership, a government led by the APC would eradicate corruption. But how is it going to achieve that? Will such a government draw its principal operatives from outer space, dropped on us from an Unidentified Flying Object (UFO)? Are they not the self-same Nigerian politicians whose only point of disagreement is when they squabble over who gets what? Or how many Nigerian politicians can, following the Jesus challenge, ‘cast the first stone’ when it comes to corruption?

Truth is, neither the APC nor any other party for that matter, can pull the wool over the eyes of Nigerians on the problematic question of corruption. Let us examine this critically. Outside the original parties that bonded together in the ill-fated political amalgam called the Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN) in 2011, the change element in the current APC comes from the disillusioned PDP governors/

Emma Agu

members who left the party in 2013. Now the question is: in what ways are they different from the remaining PDP members?

To answer the question, we must first establish why they left. To the best of our knowledge, none of them had accused President Jonathan of non-performance or corruption. Instead, their stated objective was to remove Dr. Bamanga Tukur from the post of national chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Besides, before their disagreement, they were all party to the decisions taken about how to run the country. It is on record that they parted ways for reasons that did not border on ideological differences or perceived infractions of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria or non performance. Rather, they parted ways for largely personal or sectional reasons.

Does this not translate to taking Nigerians for a ride when office-seekers elevate their personal political ambitions to the status of national emergencies even if the very thought of their actions throws the country into a political conundrum? And if the rationale was not sectional, why didn’t the APC nominate either Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State or Adams Oshiomole of Edo State or even Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State to square it up with their compatriot from the south? These questions have become imperative if only to debunk the dubious claim of non-performance being hung on President Jonathan’s head. Just as well that he has made it clear that he would leave if he loses, God forbid, at the March 28 poll.

In that case, he would have lost to Buhari who, apologies to Olusegun Obasanjo with reference to the late MKO Abiola, does not appear to me to be the messiah we are waiting for. Nothing in his record as military head of state suggests that he possesses the acumen or liberal disposition to preside over the affairs of a democratic Nigeria at this time. He is a despot; so far, he has not presented a clear strategy of how he intends to perform the ‘miracle’ credited to him. As the election approaches, I am confident that more and more of his supporters will do a rethink.

Tackling corruption in Nigeria requires a standard that not many Nigerian politicians will countenance its discussion, let alone endorse. If we sincerely want to tackle corruption, we should have the courage to remove the immunity clause, give teeth to the Freedom of Information Act, insist not just on public declaration of assets but give the press unfettered access to these assets. Then apart from the notion of corruption as embezzlement of public funds, a constitutional review must be undertaken to eradicate another invidious form of corruption, especially, nepotism. Jonathan has taken the bold initiative of embarking on a decisive constitutional review, something that has earned him the unequivocal support of the Afenifere and other groups in the Southwest.

Besides, the notion of a monolithic APC hold on the southwest, as a presumption of Buhari sweeping the entire region, is fallacious. Yes, there is no ruling out the possibility that he could carry many states. Yet, we must reckon with the fact that with the Social Democratic Party of Olusegun Osoba, the Afenifere group and the Yoruba Council of Elders, among others, pitching their tent solidly with the President, it is not going to be an easy ride for Buhari in the southwest. Agu wrote from Lagos