PERSONALITY FOCUS A Furious Push for Lagos House
Although the victory of General Muhammadu Buhari in the just concluded presidential election is expected to enhance the prospects of the All Progressives Congress in tomorrow’s governorship poll, the struggle for Lagos House is definitely going to be fier
Tomorrow, Lagos voters will go to the poll for the second time in a fortnight. This time, they will be taking decision that will either help consolidate the gains of the incumbent governor, Mr. Babatunde Fashola or set the state on an entirely different course. But either way, decision time is here, and its outcome will say a lot about the future of Lagos and its well-projected mega status.
Of the fifteen candidates the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) displayed, the governorship contest will actually be between the APC candidate, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode and his PDP challenger, Mr. Jimi Agbaje, who first contested the race in 2007 on the platform of Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA). This does not suggest that other candidates have withdrawn from the race. In truth, they are still in the race, but might not make much impact.
Largely, political affiliation will not really determine who wins the contest at last. But the President of Forward Nigeria Initiative (FNI), Mr. Lai Omotola believed political affiliation would still be a factor. Beyond what had worked in the past, Omotola argued that the legacies of transformation, rather than the mere call for change, would determine whom Fashola would pass the sceptre of the state’s authority to.
The state has been under the grip of the opposition party since in 1999. From former governor Bola Tinubu to the incumbent, Lagos has relatively witnessed some remarkable transformation, which Omotola said, had made it a point of reference, “not just in Nigeria, but in Africa. Fashola has actualised Tinubu’s dream of Lagos megacity. But the time has come for consolidating what they have done.”
The pattern of voting has always been on the rise in favour of the state’s ruling party, which Omotola said, had changed names four times, though its key actors “have not really changed.”
From the Alliance for Democracy in 1999 to the Action Congress (AC) in 2007, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011 and now All Progressives Congress (APC), the state’s voting behaviour keep tilting towards the state’s ruling enclave firmly in the grip of the APC national leader, Tinubu.
But the presidential election of March 28 posted a rather worrisome result for the APC in Lagos. With a difference of about 160,000 votes between the APC and PDP, the PDP had sent a strong subliminal message ahead of tomorrow’s election.
Lagos Voting Behaviour
The struggle of the past sixteen years as an opposition-led state is about to pay off for Lagos State provided the APC finally wins the gubernatorial contest between Ambode and Agbaje. It was in the crucible of Lagos that the insignia of opposition politics was forged and the state claims to have suffered the denial of its privileges and rights for merely daring to entrench robust democracy in Nigeria by building a virile opposition.
This has indeed elicited a lot of sympathy from Lagos residents across the ethno-religious divides. On this ground, a civil rights activist, Mr. Nelson Ekujimi said this trend “has been shaping the pattern of voting behaviour in the state. It may not really change in 2015, especially with good records of governance and performance,” which the past and incumbent governors “have been able to achieve even in the period of adversity.”
By May 29, Ekujimi said opposition party would become the ruling party and one could say it “is a pay day for Lagos. It is time to enjoy the fruit of labour of the past years.” But before this can come to be, the Programme Officer of the Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG), Mr. Segun Balogun said there was a battle ahead to win.
Balogun explained that the APC should valiantly fight off the strongest opposition, which he said the state “has been battling since the return of democracy in 1999.” He acknowledged that the state’s PDP “has had a resurgence of fortune since it handed Jimi Agbaje its gubernatorial ticket.”
But the state’s voting pattern is a huge advantage, according to him. Since 1999, he argued that each gubernatorial election in Lagos “has brought further devastating blow to the PDP’s structure in Lagos and the election result over decades attest to it.” In 2003, for instance, the late Funsho Williams polled approximately 700,000 votes as against the then incumbent Governor Bola Tinubu’s 900,000.
In 2007 when Fashola came in, his main challenger, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro polled a little above 300,000 votes, which were no match to Fashola’s 800,000 votes. But the defeat reached a crescendo in 2011 when Fashola’s re-election polled about 1.5 million votes, the highest cast for any governor ever, against Dr. Adegboyega Dosunmu, who polled 300,000 votes. But with Agbaje’s candidature, the state’s voting behaviour has changed and this is manifest in the results posted at the presidential poll. With a pedigree believed to trump that of the APC candidate, the election of tomorrow will end of a true test of democracy in the state.
The Cross of a Likely Successor
Ambode is largely seen as a stooge in some quarters. But his profile does not suggest that he can be a stooge given his professional fulfillment. A certified chartered accountant, who rose through the ranks in the state’s public service, Ambode has served as the state’s Auditor-General for the Local Governments. Aside, he had served as the state’s Accountant-General before his retirement in September 2012.
The incumbent governor had, in a letter of commendation dated December 2012, attested to Ambode’s character, competence and capability to steer the ship of Lagos government. In the letter, Fashola said Ambode’s virtues “have been of tremendous mutual benefits for an administration he served dutifully for five years and three months.” He also extolled him for the input he had in the process of decision-making for the period of 27 years that he served the Lagos State Government.
Consequently, Fashola said Ambode displayed “enviable professional traits and a good team player during his stint in the public service and guided by the philosophy of a true public officer, who must place himself last while rendering service to the public. While convinced that your brilliance and zeal would make you excel in your future endeavours, please be assured of the support of the State Government as might be required.”
Ambode testimonial indeed corroborated his assumed leadership qualities and not the character of a stooge. But his biggest cross is firmly rooted in the anti-Tinubu forces, who are working across the divides to bring his dynasty to an end. The forces are not just in the rank of the PDP. Their spread cuts across different political platforms and has joined forces with those who share their views in other states in the South-west geo-political zone.
But are the forces strong enough to deflate Tinubu’s political dynasty? That’s a question for tomorrow. But Omotola reckoned it would require building a strong political structure that towers above what the former governor “has built over the years.” Aside, he argued, it would also require directing the political structure to effective public interest and just cause beyond how Tinubu “has fought injustice against Lagos State and its people.”
Balogun argued that two critical legacies would work in favour of Ambode. He cited the legacy of Tinubu’s virile political structure, which he said has become a potent weapon “to ride into power, though it will be too competitive.” Balogun also mentioned Fashola’s legacy of good performance, which he said has brought the state “to global attention. Irrespective of opposition to his ambition, Ambode is at advantage.”
But that advantage suffered a great setback with the hate speech of the Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu, which has caused serious upset in the body polity. With the Igbos evidently pitted against the APC candidate and weighed against the backdrop of the result posted at the presidential poll, APC should stay awake for the period of the election. Even without any manipulation of sorts, observers now reckon that their chances might have paled significantly into huge disadvantage.
PDP and Its Cross
Two critical evidences are believed to attest to the sharp decline of the PDP in Lagos State. First, the defeat of President Goodluck Jonathan in the last presidential race definitely put the party at disadvantage, albeit with an encouraging result from Lagos. From May 29, Ekujimi stated that the PDP would assume the role of opposition in Nigerian politics. Second, with the scale of defeat the PDP suffered in the 2011 governorship contest, one can definitely believe Tinubu, who before the election, at a Lagos Island rally of the then Action Congress of Nigeria, declared the PDP dead and buried in Lagos politics.
Tinubu, now APC’s national leader, danced publicly on the stage celebrating the death and burial of his strongest opposition. But just four years later, there appears to have been resurgence and not a few believed Jimi Agbaje can match PDP’s best performance under Williams and even exceed it to deliver Lagos to the PDP. But can he? Is Agbaje fit to wear William’s shoes? Although the outcome of tomorrow’s election will determine that, Agbaje no doubt enjoys tremendous goodwill as an individual as against the APC candidate.While many PDP stakeholders believe this, there are a number of factors that set them miles apart. First, Williams was already an established grassroots politician, having started to work at as Commissioner for Works under the military administration of Col. Buba Marwa. Conversely, Agbaje’s grassroots followership has been queried much as Ambode’s. In fact, he is believed to have more grassroots appeal than Ambode who is riding on the coattails of Tinubu. However, Agbaje’s best shot was in 2007 as the gubernatorial candidate of the Democratic People’s Alliance and has since shot his personae up.
In addition, Agbaje was reputable for running a posh campaign in 2007, being an aristocrat himself. This endeared him to the working class, who could easily identify with his demeanour. But he has never held any public office, whether elective or appointive and therefore has had limited platform to cut a deep-rooted relationship with the grassroots, beyond his activism in Yoruba socio-cultural movements, especially in Afenifere and later in the ARG.
Unfortunately, many people in his biggest political constituency – the working class – do not vote not because they do not want to but because Nigeria’s electoral system is structured to disenfranchise as many people as possible and the working class is the biggest victim. Even the working class can no longer be said to be his turf since the emergence of Fashola, whose performance blew everybody’s mind to earn him the moniker of the “Actualiser”.
Second, while Williams campaigned on the strength of his own structure, Agbaje has always needed a structure to rely on. The beleaguered Afenifere structure, which he relied upon in 2007 could not deliver anything then and may not deliver anything now, especially after the loss of the presidential election. In fact, Agbaje’s overt reliance on ethno-political structures may be his undoing again in 2015. His overt appeal, in conjunction with President Goodluck Jonathan, to the votes of the Igbos in Lagos can now only angered Yoruba voters more, leading to protest votes among the Yoruba voters. But he is believed to stand a good chance in the overall analysis of tomorrow’s election.
Against Entrenched Interest
At a recent rally in Alimosho, Fashola raised a cogent point that Agbaje claimed that Lagos land “belongs to the federal government.” Agbaje has not really publicly debunked the statement, which an Idimu community leader, Mr. Deremi Adebayo said, would make Lagos people vote for Ambode. Adebayo explained that Lagos “has suffered a lot in the last 16 years and it will be unjust to hand it over to people, who will not protect our interest.”