A Gale of Defections: What Hope for Opposition?
Onyebuchi Ezigbo
Changes in party membership by politicians had been a long established tradition in a multiparty democracy and such movements werere usually linked to realignment of forces based on perceived ideological differences, political interests or policy disagreements. However in the Nigerian experience, electoral victory or ascension to power by a political party had always led to the mass exodus of politicians from one platform to the winning party.
It is pertinent to take a look at the implications of the scenario that has so far played out between the two biggest political parties in the country at the moment, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the build-up to the 2015 election and after the historic opposition party victory at the polls. First, it was the APC that had to struggle with the process of merger of more than three political entities with the resultant squabbles that led to gains and losses in membership strength. But it was not until the PDP had a disagreement during its mini convention and over the process of picking its presidential, flag-bearer for the 2015 election that the party witnessed what could be regarded as a near-implosion causing the exit of five serving governors and many legislators in the state and National Assemblies from the party. It was not as if there were no cases of defection by politicians from both parties before that time but the decision of the five governors of Sokoto, Kwara, Rivers, Kano and Adamawa states to defect from PDP to the newly formed APC had spiral effect on the political landscape of the country and could actually be said to have marked the commencement of descent for the PDP. From that time onwards, things began to deteriorate for the PDP. The party went on to lose support of prominent politicians and leaders including former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Speaker of House Representatives Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and Chief Barnabas Gemade, amongst others. Even a strong rally for support by the presidency to turn things around for the party using the advantages of incumbency factor did not yield much result. Although PDP did make some in- roads in the opposition party camp, securing defections of some members of APC to its fold, the number of those who joined PDP and their electoral value were not significant enough and as such made no difference. Also the shift in the election date helped in providing a window for the PDP to try to catch- up and probably reclaim lost grounds. However, the manner of exodus of former leading members of the party into APC almost left the ruling party depleted and flat to the extent that even before the general election, only a few people were left in doubt as to where the pendulum of victory would swing.
With the victory of the opposition party coalition, APC, over the PDP, many politicians and members from the losing side have now embarked on mass defection to the victorious party. As at the last count, many former leaders, ex-government appointees, lawmakers, known contractors and even some support groups of President Jonathan’s presidential campaign have joined the APC. As far as one can recall in the last few days, a lot of members of the PDP have either moved over to the APC or are in the process of doing so.
A pioneer member of the PDP and its former National Legal Adviser, Chief Olusola Oke, and a three-time Senator from Ondo Central, Gbenga Ogunniya, led some other leaders and their supporters to defect to the APC.
Also a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and founding member of the PDP, Prince Chibudom Nwuche, has resigned his membership of the party, citing frustrations at the party’s non-adherence to internal democratic rules.
In Cross River state, a PDP stalwart and former ambassador to Mali, Chief Sonny Abang, has resigned membership of his former party and joined the APC.
From Katsina, the home state of the President- elect, General Muhammadu Buhari, two former gubernatorial aspirants on the platform of the PDP in the state, Alhaji Kabir Barkiya, and Alhaji Tukur Jikamshi, have defected to the APC. Also former Military Governor of Borno, Col Abdulmumini Aminu (rtd), eight serving members of the Katsina State House of Assembly and two former commissioners, Nasidi Danladi and Aminu Jamo have also defected from PDP. From the way things are going, the defections may increase and even get to a ridiculous level where almost everyone that mattered in the former dispensation will be heading in the direction of APC notwithstanding what their real intentions are.
Many are wondering what would be the implications of these defec-