TOO BIG TO SUCCEED
“I believe the leadership of the party is equal to the task and they will adopt the right model in filling the positions of the Senate President, Speaker and all other crucial posts. I’m not unmindful of the challenges that are ahead of us, but we must check very carefully so that we don’t go the way of PDP.
“In filling sensitive positions, we must look at the character and integrity of the persons that we want to put in positions of power. They must be people, who in the court of public opinion are people of integrity. I know that APC is a mix of the conservatives and the progressives in fulfillment of the prophecy of the late Obafemi Awolowo, when he said at a point in Nigeria there would be the interplay of the forces of antithesis and the thesis, which would eventually produce a synthesis.
“Put in another form, conservatives and progressives would find equilibrium – an ideal situation or the right mix that would deliver Nigeria from the shackles of oppression, poverty and misgovernance. In doing this, we must be very careful not to turn Nigeria into a one-party state. It would not augur well for this country. Multi-party system is the best for Nigeria,” he said.
Whilst the stalemate lingers, a lot is also going on underground but unknown even to a majority of party members. As it is today, the impression out there is that Buhari does not have a candidate and that Tinubu is the one pushing for Lawan as the Senate President. Unfortunately, the contrary is the case. Ssources hinted THISDAY that Lawan is the natural candidate of Buhari while Akume is Tinubu’s choice.
However, Tinubu’s ability to read the body language of the president-elect and not wanting to go on a collision course with Buhari was said to have propelled his adopting Lawan as his preferred candidate, although not without an ulterior motive.
But Tinubu’s adoption of Lawan and his subsequent appropriation as his brain child is said to be convenient for Buhari, who does not care how Lawan emerges but desires result. Besides, he does not want his hands seen since he had given his words to stay neutral. And for Tinubu, the choice of a Lawan from North-east is believed would enhance the chances of his own candidate for the speakership in South-west.
Another reason the stalemate has lingered is because the party chairman, Chief John Oyegun and the governors of the party have not hidden their support for Saraki as their choice senate president and had taken a step further by zoning it to North Central, where Saraki hails from. Thus, reconciling the differences in interests is the reason the stalemate appears impossible and a crisis on the hand of the APC. political class has learnt not very well. What is presently going on in the APC is more or less a replay of the PDP episode of 2011. The party had zoned the position of speaker to the South-west, but most of the lawmakers frowned at it and went ahead to do otherwise.
The PDP wanted the current House Leader, Mulikat Akande-Adeola to be speaker, but as it turned out, she lost woefully to Tambuwal, who ‘rebelled’ against the party’s power sharing arrangement. The party had equally zoned the deputy speaker’s position to the North-east, but the lawmakers defied that order and voted Emeke Ihedioha from the South-east.
But Tambuwa’s emergence was not made possible only by the PDP lawmakers but worked in collaboration with other members, mostly of the ACN extraction. This pulled off through what the lawmakers termed the ‘House Project’ at that time. The idea of the ‘House Project’ was to allow the lawmakers choose their leaders by themselves without any external interference.
In electing Tambuwal as speaker, the lawmakers said they relied on merit and competence. Based on this, the APC lawmakers are battle ready to slug it out with the party’s godfathers as they are already campaigning to the party leadership to allow them elect their leaders without any interference.
Some of them are of the views that even if the party zones the key positions in the chambers to certain geo-political zones, they should be allowed to select the candidates of their choice, particularly the Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Speaker and the deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, as they would not accept imposition.
Last week, the APC NWC at its meeting resolved to zone the speaker’s position to the South-west and that of the deputy speaker to the South-south. This arrangement now awaits ratification from the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) any time this week.
But political observers argue that the same APC that threw its presidential slot open cannot be said to be considering zoning any position, particularly in the National Assembly to any region. They argue that in the run up to its national convention to produce its presidential candidate in December last year, five aspirants vied for the position, with most of them from the North.
The aspirants were Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Governor Rochas Okorocha and Sam Nda-Isaiah. While Buhari and Kwankwaso are from the North-west, Atiku is from the North-east and Nda-Isaiah is from the North-central. Only Okorocha hails from the South-east. In the end, Buhari emerged the party’s candidate and eventually won the presidential election in March.
Some lawmakers argue that since the party left the contest for its presidential candidate open, giving all members the right to contest, it should equally allow the lawmakers choose their leaders.
Even though APC is said to have firm control over its members, it is believed that should the party insist on imposing leaders on the lawmakers, the Tambuwal scenario may be repeated. In the event that the APC retains the Senate presidency in the North East to favour Lawan, then a more popular candidate may be encouraged to fight for the position at inauguration, when elections of presiding officers are conducted.
Another fear is that should the APC retain the top position in the Senate in the North Central, a small group of disgruntled party members may encourage Mark, who is reportedly still interested in the position, to throw his hat into the ring in June and align to deliver their votes to the opposition. If the APC leadership insists on imposition, then it should be prepared for a shocker. This is because the PDP will be waiting to pounce on any crack to its advantage.
Political analysts have warned that Buhari, Oyegun and Tinubu should bear in mind that any attempt to truncate the ranking rule and legislative experience in the chamber would lead to upheaval and cause a return to the 1999-2003 era when the Senate president’s seat was a musical chair of sorts.
As the battle continues, analysts believe that should the APC insist on zoning the seat, it may earn for itself disrespect from the lawmakers, just the way it happened to the PDP in 2011.
For both the office of the Senate Presi- dent and Speaker, two persons each are prominently vying for the offices. Although there may be more, with time, as it is, the four below are the main contenders with increasing support base.
On personal recognition and record between Saraki and Lawan, Saraki appears the leading contender, with a majority of the odds in his favour. Aside from the fact that he’s most liked by a majority of senators, Saraki has his hope partly hinged on the new PDP. Saraki can be sure of support from South-south and South-east senators for many considerations, especially the factor of interest.
Although he may not have the support of the party leadership, he still stands on very strong footing, since the party leadership is already divided.
Buhari’s classified interest in Lawan could though be a minus for Saraki, since he has more senators who feel comfortable with him than they do with Lawan, he stands a better chance. However, having burnt the bridge with his old party, the PDP, Saraki may not get the kind of support he looks forward to from the PDP lawmakers and this seems to be happening already.
Lacking popularity or basic appeal, Lawan and his colleagues from the North East are said to be leveraging on the ambition of vendetta from an aggrieved PDP. There are reports that Lawan and his group are also relying on support from Senate President David Mark and 47 other PDP members to press forward their case for the need to compensate a short-changed North East zone.
This alliance may probably work since the zone has felt marginalised in political office sharing since 1999, and more so because the PDP, following the loss of the executive and legislature during the just concluded 2015 general election, may want to get back at the now ruling APC.
One development which also confirms the allegation that Akume may have been edged out of the contest is the news that 12 out of the 13 newly elected senators from the South-west have adopted Lawan as their candidate for the Senate President position in the 8th National Assembly. Having realised that Akume wouldn’t make it against Saraki, APC leaders from the South-west may have decided on Lawan rather than let Saraki have it.
Above all, Lawan is said to have the full backing of Buhari, although from the background. While Buhari wants to be seen as the father of all and not offend the sensibilities of the others, he is said to be strongly in support of Lawan and his foot soldiers have subsequently instructed all to take note of his body language as far as the Senate Presidency is concerned.
In the House of Representatives, the battle for the speakership has seen six members indicate interest in the position. The initial six were Abdulmumin Jibrin from Kano (North West), Yakubu Dogara from Bauchi (North East), Femi Gbajabiamila from Lagos (South