GREAT EXPECTATIONS FROM THE ELECTION TRIBUNALS

In the euphoria of a successful presidential election with arguably the least controversy since independence, some have hastened to declare the 2015 elections free and fair and commended the INEC under Professor Attahiru Jega for a job well done. The temptation to generalise with the presidential poll is understandable but equally untenable. There are observable divergences in the outcome of the presidential election and the other polls.

The logical conclusion of the 2015 presidential election is more a function of the APC’s capacity to overcome the threat to subvert the process than of INEC’s ability to preserve the integrity of the system. President Goodluck Jonathan’s PDP was in government but hardly in power at the time of the said election. The power of incumbency which the PDP in the typical fashion of most ruling parties in Africa had exploited to win every general election since 1999 could not be leveraged because the ruling apparatchik was steeped in a crisis of instability.

For significant sections of Nigeria’s voting population, Jonathan’s ‘less than average performance’ was not the underlying issue though it was convenient and diplomatic to present it as such. Late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo was a phenomenal failure as president; that did not stop him from securing a second term in office. The decisive factor in Jonathan’s re – election bid was whether it was the turn of the north or the south to rule. Jonathan’s performance in the six years of his presidency was a consideration for only an insignificant percentage of Nigerians. The voting pattern in the March 2015 presidential poll in which the north voted overwhelmingly for retired General Muhammadu Buhari and the South [minus the south west for obvious reasons] voted overwhelmingly for Jonathan substantiates our position that the contest was about which region ought to produce the president. Those who would rather wish away the relevance of ethnic politics in Nigerian elections should tell us had Jonathan been a northerner, [and incumbent president], who between him and Buhari would have won in the north? It would be inconceivable to suggest that among the southeast and south-south voters, there were not significant sections disappointed by Jonathan’s modest achievements but who nevertheless voted for him. Even in the advanced Western democracies, there are found categories of the electorate whose minds are firmed up well before the polls about the candidates regardless of their performance in office, in campaigns and debates.

The ‘unfairness’ of Jonathan’s presidency against the backdrop of what was perceived as the north’s rotational slot had long become a movement which merely reached its climax with the 2015 presidential election. This crusade created a crisis of confidence for the regime which in turn led to the weakening of some state institutions. Appointments into key national offices such as the service chiefs and CBN governorship by the President were politicised and given all manner of interpretations. When the military command took adequate measures to contain Boko Haram’s terrorism, the regime was accused of genocide and if it softened the counter insurgency operation, it was blackmailed as doing nothing or not doing enough. Bauchi State presidential election result in which Jonathan polled 86, 085 votes to Buhari’s whooping 932, 598 votes illustrates the stigma that afflicted Jonathan’s candidature in the north. This was a Bauchi State that had Isa

Yuguda a PDP Governor; the national chairman of the PDP, Adamu Muazu hailed from the state; ditto for the very powerful Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed. The fact of either their inability or unwillingness to come to the rescue of their party’s candidate speaks volume about the dissonance in the party largely brought upon by the regime’s power crisis.

It was this state of regime instability against the background of north – southwest mobilisation to acquire the presidency which foreclosed manipulation of the presidential election result rather than any demonstration of competence and impartiality by the INEC. Although President Goodluck Jonathan at a thanksgiving service at Abuja on Sunday, May 10, 2015, indicated that he overruled some of his ministers in conceding victory to Buhari, there is serious doubt the regime had the capacity to influence the process and thereafter contain the attendant consequences. We saw on television the half – hearted attempt by one of the President’s associates to derail the announcement of results peter out at the first line of resistance. Ifeanyi Afuba, Nimo, Anambra State